The rookie Quarterback class of 2021 was highly touted heading into last year’s draft. As they head into the second year of their careers, each QB will be looking to improve on their rookie campaigns. Some of these QBs are set up far better than others for fantasy purposes. Year two can be the make-or-break season for many QBs in the NFL. It is also when many breakout and solidify themselves as fantasy football mainstays for years to come. Who has the best chance at breaking out in 2022? I will be looking at QBs Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, and Davis Mills and diving into the positives and negatives for each headed into the 2022 season. At the end of the reviews, I will rank them from best chance to breakout to worst. Let’s dive right into it.

Mac Jones-New England Patriots (QB19 Overall in 2021)

Positives:

-Acquired a true outside WR in DeVante Parker.

-Did not lose any weapons from last season during Free Agency. (Continuity with receivers)

-Still has solid protection.

Going in order from how these QBs finished last season, Mac Jones ranked as the QB18 overall in 2021. He ended the season with five Top 12 performances. Despite finishing higher than the other QBs on this list, Jones did not have a ton of fantasy relevance in 2021. However, he gets a much-needed outside weapon in DeVante Parker this upcoming season. Parker’s presence will help Jones on all fronts, and it gives him another red-zone threat to target. Keeping the receiving core from last season intact is a nice bonus, as continuity is crucial for a young QB. Jones lost both starting guards this offseason, but with an anchor Center in David Andrews and two solid Tackles on both sides protecting him, he still has potentially the best protection of the year-two QBs. However, this is where the positives end for Jones.

Negatives:

-Stuck in a Run-Centric offense.

-Does not have high scoring upside on a weekly basis.

-Team has done little this offseason to add offensive pieces.

-He lost Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels to the Las Vegas Raiders.

-Struggled to flash last season for fantasy purposes.

While Jones performed admirably on an NFL level last season, he did little to excite the fantasy football community. The Patriots have done little to help the cause, as they have let more players walk offensively than anything. Jones needs more help in the passing game, and the only addition that has been made thus far has been Parker. Couple this with the fact that Jones is playing for a run-centric Patriots offense, and you have little to be excited about heading into 2022. His weekly scoring ceiling was already capped last year. With former OC Josh McDaniels now the HC for the Raiders, there is no telling if the offense will pass more or not. The needle has not moved in the right direction for Jones this offseason.

Summary:

Mac Jones may have had the highest amount of fantasy points scored of the rookie QB class last season, but his ceiling is lower than the majority of the others. The number of passing opportunities he will have are lower than most, and the offense is geared toward the run game. Jones would have to increase his yardage and touchdown totals by a high amount to breakout, and the weapons are not in place for him to do so. Jones caps out as a weekly waiver wire QB with low upside, as he has no rushing element to add to his game.

Trevor Lawrence-Jacksonville Jaguars (QB22 Overall in 2021)

Positives:

-New Offensive HC in Doug Pederson. (Better play calling)

-Solid WR Core (Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, and Laviska Shenault).

-Capable TE Duo with upside (Evan Engram and Dan Arnold).

-Gets back trusted RB Travis Etienne.

-Acquired some much-needed O-Line help (RG Brandon Scherff).

-Has rushing upside (73 carries for 334 yards in 2021).

To say that Trevor Lawrence had a disappointing rookie season would be an understatement. Lawrence was under constant duress due to terrible play calling by a coach who did not need to be anywhere near an NFL team and a horrid offensive line. His top WR, DJ Chark, played only four games due to injury and is now a Detroit Lion. However, 2022 is looking much more promising for Lawrence. His WR core is one of the better ones compared to the other year two QBs. He has a TE with an untapped ceiling in Evan Engram and a sure-handed one in Dan Arnold. Former Clemson teammate Travis Etienne will be ready to go after missing all of his rookie season, and he added one of the league’s top guards to his offensive line. No year two QB has this many factors working in their favor this upcoming season.

Negatives:

-Offensive line still needs work.

-No elite pass-catcher on the roster.

-New additions could end up being major flops.

-Has to fix his turnover issue.

Lawrence could still struggle regardless of how good this year looks compared to the disastrous 2021 season. While Scherff is an excellent addition, the Jacksonville offensive line needs work. Lawrence still lacks a true top target in the passing game to unlock his full potential. The additions of Kirk and Engram are fine on paper, but they both have the potential to flop. Engram has never lived up to his pre-draft potential, and Kirk has never been the WR1 for his team. Coupled with Lawrence’s turnover issue last season, it is not a slam dunk that he improves in 2022. He can overcome these negatives, but it will take a lot of work on both Lawrence’s part and new HC Doug Pederson.

Summary:

It is easy to see the path to fantasy success after what Lawrence went through last season. Pederson calling the shots will make a world of difference, and there is no shortage of talented pass-catchers to throw to. He could also be worked into the run game more often after a solid showing on 73 carries last season. He is still going to struggle to have time to throw the ball in the pocket, and he is going to need to throw a higher rate of touchdowns if he wants to breakout for fantasy. With all of that said, he has one of the more precise paths to success with talent and the surrounding cast kept in mind. Lawrence has a better outlook than most of the 2021 QB class.

Davis Mills-Houston Texans (QB29 Overall in 2021)

Positives:

-Flashed at times for fantasy last season.

-Has a solid #1 WR in Brandin Cooks.

-Will have to throw often as Texans have to battle back in games.

The most surprising starting year two QB of the 2021 season, Davis Mills, flashed at times for fantasy purposes. He finished with four Top 12 performances on an offense depleted of pass-catching talent. The only real weapon he has is WR Brandin Cooks, and he was just re-signed to an extension this offseason. Peppering Cooks with targets helped propel Mills to fantasy success a handful of times last season, and that will not change in 2022. He was not nearly as turnover prone as Zach Wilson or Trevor Lawrence, and that was under consistent pressure due to his less-than-stellar offensive line. Mills overachieved on an offense that was often worse than the opposing team on paper each week. Playing from behind late in games didn’t hurt either.

Negatives:

-Weak WR Core behind Cooks.

-Run game is unreliable.

-Team has moved to a defensive head coach in Lovie Smith.

-No rushing upside.

-Will need a high TD count to produce consistently for fantasy.

-May have the lowest upside of the group due to the supporting cast.

There is a laundry list of issues that Mills will have to overcome to breakout in 2022. Behind Brandin Cooks, Mills will be throwing to a bare receiving core. TE Brevin Jordan flashed on limited work, but there is little to get excited about past him. Houston added RB Marlon Mack in free agency, but he has not been an impact player for over two years. Mills is a statue in the pocket, with little upside to carry the ball past the line of scrimmage. On top of that, even after flashing at points of the season last year, Mills will need to increase his touchdown total to have a proper breakout campaign. Considering Houston still has one of the weakest offenses in the league, that will be tough to accomplish. Mills may have the lowest upside of the 2021 rookie QB class.

Summary:

Mills may have overachieved in 2021 based on expectation, but it will be a tough road ahead to breakout in 2022. Houston can get better offensively through the draft, but it will not be enough to save Mills from all the hurdles he currently faces. He is on a team in the middle of a complete rebuild. Any QB in the league would struggle to remain consistent for fantasy in that situation. While he was able to shine at times in 2021, the team has not done enough to be confident in Mills progressing enough for fantasy purposes.

Zach Wilson-New York Jets (QB30 Overall in 2021)

Positives:

-When healthy, he has a solid WR core (Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Braxton Berrios).

-Has two true TEs to throw to this season (C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin).

-Added Laken Tomlinson to make a solid offensive line.

-Team projected to spend high draft capital on WR.

-Flashed for fantasy over second half of the season.

-Has ability to run and add to his fantasy upside.

-Showed promise when skill positions were not at full health.

The Jets have been active in adding to their offense this offseason to help Zach Wilson reach his full potential. His WR core is solid when at full health, and there are numerous rumors of the team adding to it on either day one or two of the draft. The addition of Tomlinson solidifies a Jets offensive line that ranked 11th last season, according to PFF. Wilson finally has not just one but two pass-catching TEs to throw to with the additions of Uzomah and Conklin. These acquisitions will help Wilson complete short passes and improve his completion percentage. He can run as well, averaging the highest yards per attempt among QBs last year. Wilson started to show signs of life for fantasy over the back half of 2021. All of the additions to the offense could go a long way in his progression to a potential breakout in 2022.

Negatives:

-The division has become difficult.

-More two-TE sets could lead to a more balanced offensive approach.

-Has to overcome injuries to the skill positions.

-Needs to keep the momentum he built up towards the back half of 2021.

While Wilson has a lot working in favor heading into 2022, he has more than his fair share of hurdles to overcome. Playing the defenses of Buffalo, Miami, and New England six times in total is not ideal. That is a big chunk of the season where he will struggle to succeed for fantasy purposes. The additions of Uzomah and Conklin are great for the short passing game, but they also help shore up the run game. OC Mike LaFleur would love to balance the offense and run the ball more like when he was in San Francisco, and these additions will help him do so. If he can find a way to perform when missing his offensive pieces as he did at times last season, then the path to the breakout is clear. However, he will have to keep rolling on that late-season momentum out of the gates.

Summary:

Wilson is one of the safer bets to place when discussing what year two QB could breakout in 2022. He has enough tools in the belt to improve his passing numbers and could even have another added in a few weeks. You could argue that Wilson’s offensive line is the best of the rookie QB class of 2021. However, he did not have a ton of fantasy success last year and will need to become more consistent if he is to be trusted as a high-end streamer or reach the ceiling of a back-end QB1. To breakout, he will have to throw a lot more touchdowns or run in a few more.

Justin Fields-Chicago Bears (QB31 Overall in 2021)

Positives:

-Shift from Matt Nagy to Bill Lazor should help.

-Bears have lost key defensive pieces, potentially leading to more passing on offense.

-Rushing ability can save him from lower passing totals for fantasy.

Fields had his feet put to the flames last season as the starter for Chicago. Former HC Matt Nagy did not help things with his refusal to shape the offensive game plan around the play style of Fields. When OC Bill Lazor called plays last season, the offense operated much smoother. This season, Lazor will call the shots a big positive for Fields and the rest of the Bears offense. While his passing numbers may still suffer in 2022, Fields can save his fantasy value and breakout with his rushing ability. The likes of Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts have proven that you do not need high passing totals to finish as a Top 12 QB as long as you do a lot of work on the ground. Fields has more than enough talent as a runner to do the same.

Negatives:

-Chicago has made zero moves to assist Fields this offseason.

-The team has zero first round selections in the upcoming draft.

-Has a new defensive-minded Head Coach in Matt Eberflus.

-Was not passing at a high rate last season, likely won’t change enough this year.

-Potentially has the weakest WR core of this group of QBs.

For a team that has rested their future on Justin Fields‘ development, they have not invested in the proper tools to help him succeed. Not only does Chicago have zero first-round picks in this year’s draft, but they added no receiving help to the offense via free agency. The offense does not seem to be the priority, with new HC Matt Eberflus coming from a defensive background. With potentially the weakest WR core of all year two QBs, it does not look like Fields will be throwing the ball at a much higher rate than last season. He will have to run a lot to make a fantasy breakout happen.

Summary:

As promising a talent as Justin Fields is, he has far too many hurdles to overcome if he wants to break out in 2022. He does not have the weapons or offensive line to boost his passing numbers to a level where he competes to be a Top 12 QB consistently every week. While he can supplement the loss of passing production with his legs, he will have to score at a high rate to break out. It is tough to see the Bears in scoring position enough for that to happen. Fields is the QB of this group with the most talent but the smallest amount of support.

Trey Lance-San Francisco 49ers (QB40 Overall in 2021)

Positives:

-Highest rushing upside of the group.

-Solid receiving core when healthy (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle).

-HC Kyle Shanahan will know how to scheme the offense around him.

-Should have plenty of scoring opportunities.

We did not get to see much of Trey Lance last season. However, what he was able to do as a starter for fantasy purposes has many excited for him to start in 2022. He flashed plenty of rushing upside, and Head Coach Kyle Shanahan will be able to scheme the offense around him with an entire offseason of Lance working as the starter. When at full strength, Lance possesses one of the best receiving cores of this group of year two QBs. Former starter Jimmy Garoppolo was not asked to throw the ball at a high rate last season, and Lance possesses more arm strength to push the ball downfield than Garoppolo. San Francisco will have plenty of scoring opportunities in 2022, making Lance the QB with the highest risk yet the highest reward for fantasy purposes.

Negatives:

-Little starting experience after his first season in the league. Could lead to slow start.

-He is a raw prospect, and has accuracy and turnover issues.

-Offense has been geared around short passes, and may not have the opportunity to utilize arm strength often.

-Chance that Jimmy Garopppolo enters the season as the starter if the team does not move him.

It would have been nice to see more of Lance last season to help answer some of the questions we as the fantasy community have about him. Even headed into 2022, there’s a chance that he does not get to enter the season as the starter. As of this writing, Jimmy Garoppolo is still on the roster, and there are rumors he may start the season under center if he isn’t traded. If Lance does start, he could be slow out the gates for fantasy due to lack of playtime during his rookie season. His accuracy was an issue coming out of college, which could lead to turnovers and a lack of fantasy production. Thankfully, many variables will get sorted out for Lance before the season starts.

Summary:

While it is risky to place a bet on Lance to breakout in 2022, he has one of the highest ceilings of the year two QBs. The tools are in place for him to succeed, and he has the arm talent to make big plays happen. The 49ers lacked that with Garoppolo under center and have had to rely on the yards-after-catch ability of their receivers. Lance will unlock a part of the offense the team has been without for years, but he could struggle early due to lack of playtime last season. As the offseason progresses, we will know if he will start the season under center over Garoppolo.

How I Have Them Ranked

Putting them in order from the best chance to break out to the worst, here is how I am ranking these six quarterbacks.

1. Trey Lance
2. Trevor Lawrence
3. Zach Wilson
4. Justin Fields
5. Mac Jones
6. Davis Mills

Reasoning:

While Lance may carry the highest risk, he could easily end 2022 as a Top 10 QB if everything works in his favor. Placing a bet on this group’s most talented rushing QB with one of the best receiving cores to breakout seems safer than it looks on paper. Lawrence is a close second. His talent to throw the ball, mixed with all the additions the Jaguars have made this offseason, points to a significant improvement in his fantasy value. I like Wilson’s chances at improving as well. He has a solid offensive line and TEs that can actually catch the ball now. With more weapons potentially being added, I think Wilson is a safe bet to finish near the Top 15 if everything goes his way. I am much less bullish on the bottom three QBs. While I believe Fields is talented, the team has not built around him this offseason. He will struggle early and often due to the lack of protection and weapons to throw. At times this season, his legs could save his fantasy value, but I do not think it will be enough throughout all of 2022. Jones is much better as an NFL QB than a fantasy one. DeVante Parker is a nice addition, but the Patriots will continue to lean on their run game and defense, leaving few passing touchdown opportunities for Jones. He can finish in the Top 20, but reaching the Top 12 is not a realistic expectation. As impressed as I was by Mills last season, the betting on a second-year QB to breakout for fantasy on a roster in the middle of a rebuild with little to no weapons is unnecessary. He needs to have a lot of lucky breaks on the field to breakout for fantasy purposes.

About the Author!

If you want more helpful fantasy content for dynasty or redraft leagues, check out Belly Up Fantasy Sports articles at Belly Up Fantasy. You can follow me on Twitter, and check out any of my other articles! Thanks for reading!