The list of rookie QBs who bust is enormous. Despite being paid millions, NFL scouts regularly swing and miss on college QBs. Because of that, the idea of trading away early draft picks is a popular topic right now. The current teams with top 3 picks are the Bears, the Commanders, and the Patriots. None of them have proven franchise QBs. The Cardinals, Giants, Chargers, Titans, and Jets are close too. In a class with many exciting QB prospects such as Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and Michael Penix Jr, it is ridiculous to me (except in the case of the Cardinals and the Chargers who already have a proven QB with a big contract) for a team to even consider looking at another position. This is an article explaining why teams shouldn’t pass on top rookie QBs.

Past Superbowl Winners

I’d argue that in the past 20 years, only one team had a quarterback who was sub-par. Here’s the list:

• 2023: Patrick Mahomes
• 2022: Matthew Stafford
• 2021: Tom Brady
• 2020: Patrick Mahomes
• 2019: Tom Brady
• 2018: Nick Foles
• 2017: Tom Brady
• 2016: Peyton Manning
• 2015: Tom Brady
• 2014: Russell Wilson
• 2013: Joe Flacco
• 2012: Eli Manning
• 2011: Aaron Rodgers
• 2010: Drew Breees
• 2009: Ben Roethlisberger
• 2008: Eli Manning,
• 2007: Peyton Manning
• 2006: Ben Roethlisberger
• 2005: Tom Brady
• 2004:Tom Brady

So besides Nick Foles, Superbowl winners were led by quarterbacks who were well-regarded. QB is easily the most important position in football so it is paramount to get a good one if you want to win. There are three ways to get a top QB:

1. The draft
2. Free agency
3. Trades

Obviously, I am saying teams should shoot their shot in the draft. I’ll explain why the other two options aren’t likely to work out for most teams.

Free Agency

I’d say there are currently 17 QBs who are “good” in the NFL. That’s being generous since that’s over half the QBs in the league. Here is a list of the top QBs along with the year they will enter free agency.

• Patrick Mahomes: 2032
• Joe Burrow: 2030
• Justin Herbert: 2030
• Josh Allen: 2029
• Jalen Hurts: 2029
• Kyler Murray: 2029
• Lamar Jackson: 2028
• Deshaun Watson: 2027
• Matthew Stafford: 2027
• C.J. Stroud: 2027
• Aaron Rodgers: 2026
• Brock Purdy: 2026
• Dak Prescott: 2025
• Jared Goff: 2025
• Trevor Lawrence: 2025
• Tua Tagovailoa: 2025
• Kirk Cousins: 2024

Very rarely do top (or even decent) QBs not get re-signed after their rookie contracts. First of all, if they don’t voluntarily re-sign, they’re likely tagged. But then they’re often signed after that. How many of these 17 QBs signed with a new team in free agency? 0. Rookie QBs who are good rarely if ever switch teams. So we can essentially remove all of the rookies and their free agency dates from this list.

So who else could be free? Kirk Cousins is likely available this offseason. He garners mixed reviews, but I’d say he’s good. However, he also turns 36 this season. Is he still a top QB? And if so, for how much longer? Tua, Trevor, and Dak are very likely to stay with their current teams beyond 2025. The first two are likely to at minimum have their fifth-year options picked up, and there have already been talks of Dak being re-signed soon. Jared Goff may become available, but though he’d be good, I am not sure if he’s a difference-maker. After that, Brock Purdy becomes available, but would he succeed outside of the 49ers scheme? Aaron Rodgers is free in 2026 too but he’ll turn 43 during that season, an age very few QBs have played well at.

I’d say that unless you’re willing to settle for an average QB (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing), teams are waiting until at least 2027 to have a top QB become available. This is why I thought it was ridiculous that teams were supposedly not showing interest in Lamar Jackson this past offseason. Even though it would have been unlikely to pan out, it was a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

Good QBs in general rarely switch teams. Additionally, if you sign or re-sign a proven quarterback, you’re paying them a lot more than a younger one on a rookie contract, and it’s often for less than the 5+ years you can lock up rookies for. This is why teams shouldn’t pass on top rookie QBs.

Trading

Of that same list of top 17 QBs, a few have been traded. Deshaun Watson, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff have switched teams. The Browns paid over three 1sts for Deshaun Watson who the Texans didn’t even want. The Rams paid two firsts and Goff for Stafford. The Jets didn’t have to pay too much for Rodgers, but that was a unique situation where Rodgers had the leverage since he was threatening retirement as well. Though he’s not on this list, another notable trade recently was when the Broncos paid more than two 1sts and two 2nds for Russell Wilson, who also seemed to fall out of favour with his former team.

So what we see here is that it takes a team not wanting a person (possibly for personal reasons) or a positional swap for good QBs to be traded. We also see that it can be costly and crippling for a team to trade for a good QB. This is arguably the best option to get a proven QB, but it often requires a rift between the stud QB and an organization for a trade to even be possible. How often does that happen?

Wrap-Up

How does this relate to fantasy football? I think it’s important in dynasty to try and forecast future QB situations as it drastically affects the offence, especially the passing weapons. Trading for subpar but decent QBs like Derek Carr generally doesn’t have the positive effect people think it will.

So we have seen that free agency is unlikely to be a good pathway to getting a significant upgrade at QB until 2027 or beyond. But even then, there is no guarantee of good free agents since teams with good QBs tend to hold onto them.

Then we saw that trades are an expensive option that can cripple a team. With the Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson trades, we’ve seen that even trading for proven players isn’t a guarantee of elite production.

So drafting a good QB is easily the best option. It’s cheaper and you can guarantee yourself 5+ years with them. Of course, there is a risk that the player isn’t good, but we’ve seen how hard it is to get a good QB any other way. This is why teams shouldn’t pass on top rookie QBs. Knowing this can help you as you try to project what the QB landscape will look like in 2024 and beyond to try to value your fantasy dynasty assets.

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