There is a lot of discussion right now about the future of the QB position in Chicago for this upcoming season and beyond. Will Justin Fields be a Bear? I can’t answer that for sure but I can give you my opinion on the topic.

His Talent

Obviously, he’s talented. You need to have talent to play in the NFL. But to NFL standards, I don’t think he’ll ever be great. Justin Fields was horrible in his rookie season but that can be excused since many rookies have rough starts. Though he was a great rusher, he was a poor passer in his second season. After the team added D.J. Moore, Fields started his third season with poor rushing and passing, but improved throughout the season. Him improving doesn’t mean he was good though. How many QBs are bad for two years, start to develop in their third year, and then become a franchise QB after that? Franchise QBs normally establish themselves within their first 2 years. Josh Allen was an exception who took 3 years. I don’t know of any QB in the modern era who has taken 4+ years to develop with much opportunity before that. Do you?

History

So we’ve seen he can be bad. This year, he has shown he can be poor to decent. How many teams win with sub-par to middling QB play? The Eagles had a miracle run with Nick Foles but besides that, past 20 Superbowl winners were Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Nick Foles, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Breees, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and Tom Brady. There was one year when an average or worse QB won it.

Teams need a top-tier talent to have a good shop at the Championship and Justin Fields has shown it’s doubtful he’ll live up to that. Of course, the 2024 rookies haven’t either, but Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are highly rated prospects who are more likely to become franchise QBs than Fields is.

Wrap-Up

So, will Justin Fields be a Bear? I don’t think he should be. But the Bears have a proven track record of bad decision making so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them mess up this opportunity at back-to-back first overall picks. Also, how does this apply to fantasy? It means you should skeptical of Fields’ future. He could end up starting somewhere else and that adds a lot of volatility to his dynasty value.

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