Danny Dimes and Giants offense have a shiny new toy, and it catches lots of tuddies. One of the most sought-after wide receivers of this offseason’s free-agent frenzy signed a four-year, $72 million contract with New York after spending his first four seasons in Detroit. But is Kenny Golladay‘s fantasy production on the rise after leaving one questionable offense to feature in another?

Danny Dimes or Danny Dump-Offs?

I, like most people who claim to know things about sports, make a lot of claims that turn out to be wrong. But I will not make the outrageous claim that Daniel Jones is a surefire upgrade from Matthew Stafford for Mr. Golladay. From a fantasy perspective, there is reason to worry that Jones’ production (or lack thereof) this season will hurt Golladay owners.

Stafford threw 26 touchdown passes last year compared to Jones’ 11. The veteran gunslinger averaged over 40 more air yards per game than Jones in an offense that was equally as stagnant as New York’s was. Though Jones had better deep-ball accuracy than Stafford did last season, his reluctance to throw the ball downfield hurt the Giants offense. Poor offensive line play also led to mediocre fantasy production from both Jones and New York’s receivers. Golladay was signed to break that trend and give Jones a downfield threat that he can throw to with confidence. The question that remains is whether Jones will be able to take advantage of his new deep threat.

Giants Offense Could be Run-Heavy

The return of Saquon Barkley and the rise of the Giants’ defense are two more red flags that could lead fantasy owners away from Golladay in this year’s drafts. Back when the Giants were winning Super Bowls, their style of play was predicated on playing hard-nosed defense and pounding the rock. Dave Gettleman is building this team in a way that’s reminiscent of the formula that led the Giants to championships a little over a decade ago. The league has evolved since then in terms of how teams go about attacking defenses through the air. But I still predict this Giants team will be run-heavy as well as defense-oriented.

Jones is also yet to prove in his two years as a starting NFL quarterback that he can carry on offense on his shoulders. There’s no doubt that the Giants had to deal with a litany of injuries last year. But Jones still greatly under-performed in his sophomore season. For this reason, Joe Judge may look to utilize Jones as more of a game-manager this year. Especially if he is unable to limit his turnovers and move the offense down the field early on in the season.

A conservative, run-first offense would make Kenny Golladay’s fantasy production entirely touchdown-dependent. And while Golladay has had little trouble scoring touchdowns over the course of his career (11 TD’s in his last healthy season in 2019), volume is what you want to see from your receivers in any format. Golladay may not be seeing the same volume he saw with Matthew Stafford now that he is playing with Daniel Jones in New York.

Verdict: Expect Kenny Golladay’s Fantasy Production to Regress.

I’ll wear it if I’m wrong here, but I don’t see Golladay returning to his 2019 fantasy glory in a Giants uniform. Entering a situation where he’ll have an unproven quarterback playing behind a porous offensive line throwing to him, I have serious worries about Golladay’s potential for 2021. I expect the Giants to lean heavily on Saquon Barkley and trust their defense to hold tight leads in low-scoring affairs. Now I’m no expert, but I know low-scoring games tend to yield poor individual fantasy lines. And I would bet that Kenny Golladay and the Giants are going to play in a lot of them this season.

There’s a lot to be desired from a receiver you take in the first five rounds. And I think Kenny Golladay’s fantasy production is going to disappoint for the sole reason that he ended up on the Giants this offseason. While the Lions were never really competitive at any point during Golladay’s stint in Detroit, the target volume needed to sustain elite fantasy production was there for him nearly every game he played.

So, let’s wait and see if the league leader in fumbles lost in 2019 and the runner-up in the same category last season can take a step forward for the Giants and prove me wrong here. Kenny Golladay’s fantasy stock is riding on your ability to hold on to the ball and do good things with it, Danny Butterfingers. Don’t disappoint!

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