Friday, November 22, 2024

Fantasy Football

WR Rankings to win your draft

Now that we have covered quarterbacks and running backs, I will lead you to the inevitable next step, the WR rankings. There are a plethora of studs at WR, and the position is the deepest of any. But who are the best, and where are the potential steals. Look no further, friend. Let’s talk receivers.

The Wide Receivers

Name: Targets-Catches-Receiving Yds-Receiving TDs:Fumbles, (Rushes, Rush Yds, Rush TDs) Fantasy Points in 0.5 PPR.

Tier 1: MT and the other beasts

Can’t guard him, can’t stop him, and can’t go wrong drafting him. He is a PPR legend.
  1. Michael Thomas: 168-135-1,574-9:1, (NA)277.9
  2. Tyreek Hill: 121-82-1,289-10:2, (18-133-1)247.2
  3. A.J. Brown: 121-79-1,346-10:1, (5-72-1)246.3
    The controversy starts early with our WR rankings. Michael Thomas isn’t the controversial one. And any WR rankings without him in the 1 spot in any sort of PPR format sounds silly to me. The man is a target vacuum, a black hole of targets and catches. Then we have Tyreek, the league’s fastest weapon, with the league’s best QB, in the league’s most exciting offense. He isn’t controversial either. But our third guy, him being here is going to make some people mess their pants. But A.J. Brown is going to be a super-duper-star. WR1 overall is in his future. But 2020 is going to show us what we can now enjoy from here on out. Get Brown, win leagues, thank me later.

Tier 2: These guys are really, really good. Get them

Davante might be mad about not being in that prior tier. He could be correct too.
  1. Davante Adams: 146-91-1,114-11:1, (NA)221.9
  2. DeAndre Hopkins: 146-91-1,217-9:1, (2-14-0)221.6
  3. Julio Jones: 146-96-1,363-6:1, (1-8-0)220.1
  4. Kenny Golladay: 129-74-1,218-9:1, (NA)211.8
  5. JuJu Smith-Schuster: 132-91-1,180-8:1, (NA)210.5
  6. DeVante Parker: 115-78-1,150-9:1(NA)207
  7. Courtland Sutton: 126-78-1,099-9:1, (3-31-0)205
  8. DJ Chark: 124-80-1,093-9:1, (3-25-0)204.8
  9. Amari Cooper: 122-81-1,158-8:0, (NA)204.3
  10. Mike Evans: 134-77-1,119-8:1, (NA)197.4
  11. Chris Godwin: 122-80-1,154-7:2, (NA)195.4
  12. D.K. Metcalf: 105-64-1,021-10:2, (3-13-0)193.4
  13. Allen Robinson: 131-82-1,071-7:1, (2-13-0)190.4
    Ok, let’s get real here. These are all guys I want. Adams has WR1 potential, and could easily bounce back with a monster year in 2020. Hopkins has a new situation, but realistically, his skills should translate to any offense. Julio is still, talent-wise, probably the best WR in football. Golladay did what he did last year without Stafford half the year. JuJu has Ben back, and I expect a massive year. Remember 2018 JuJu. Parker is being criminally underrated after finishing so strong in 2019. Sutton has shown his elite upside, and he is only getting better. Chark broke out in a huge way last year, and I expect him to continue his superstar trajectory. Cooper is inconsistent on a weekly basis, but he will win you plenty of games and has best WR of the week potential every week. Evans and Godwin minimize each other’s ceilings in small ways, but their floors are fantastic. Either has WR1 upside, maybe both. Metcalf takes that next step in 2020 to a bonafide stud, in an excellent offense. Robinson may outdo these projections, his floor is incredibly safe, only his QB situation concerns me.

Tier 3: Incredible potential with minor concerns

Slayton is severely undervalued. Doubtful anyone else has him this high. Doubtful anyone else is right.
  1. Darius Slayton: 103-63-983-9:1, (4-54-0)188.2
  2. Tyler Lockett: 110-79-1,089-6:1, (5-24-0)185.8
  3. Cooper Kupp: 120-82-1,069-6:2, (3-17-0)183.6
  4. Jarvis Landry: 120-77-1,019-7:2, (2-18-0)182.2
  5. Terry McLaurin: 118-71-1,042-7:0, (NA)181.7
  6. Odell Beckham: 125-75-1,078-6:1, (1-9-0)181.2
  7. Adam Thielen: 118-77-1,049-6:1, (2-17-0)180.1
  8. A.J. Green: 118-71-1,029-7:1, (NA)179.4
  9. Michael Gallup: 114-71-1,058-6:0, (NA)177.3
  10. Robert Woods: 123-80-1,013-4:1, (16-11-0)175.4
  11. Stefon Diggs: 110-74-924-7:1, (2-28-0)173.2
  12. D.J. Moore: 119-78-1,046-4:3, (8-81-0)172.7
  13. Calvin Ridley: 107-71-943-6:1, (3-23-0)167.1
  14. Tyler Boyd: 112-76-904-6:1, (3-25-0)165.9
  15. T.Y. Hilton: 114-70-1,019-5:1, (NA)165.9
  16. Deebo Samuel: 91-63-877-4:2, (16-171-1)164.3
  17. Marquise Brown: 98-63-811-8:1, (3-38-0)163.4
  18. Keenan Allen: 118-79-911-5:1, (3-22-0)161.8
  19. Marvin Jones: 103-64-892-6:0, (2-16-0)158.8
  20. Mike Williams: 93-51-951-6:1, (3-16-0)157.2
  21. Henry Ruggs: 90-56-901-6:0, (2-29-0)157
    Let’s ramp back up the controversy. Darius Slayton is on his way to top 10 WR status if he and Danny Dimes can continue their chemistry and growth. Lockett arguably belongs in the tier above this, but Metcalf’s ascension cramps his style. Kupp and Woods are ranked higher by most, but the Rams situation scares me with their line and ground game issues. Landry and Beckham both have excellent ceilings, but Cleveland is not a team I am overly confident in through the air. Scary Terry is one elite QB away from leaping way above this, but his QB situation keeps him slightly grounded. Thielen should get enough volume to remain excellent, but I think he is slightly overvalued. Green was elite, what is he now?I suspect still pretty damn good. How does his presence affect Boyd? Gallup is getting slept on hard, considering his 2019 and the offense he is in. Diggs gets a new situation, which could be concerning, but he will still get targets. I am low on Moore because of Bridgewater, but he has obvious upside and I will take heat for his ranking. Probably Ridley too, but I believe we may see a bit of regression for Ridley if Gurley stays healthy. Hilton has health concerns and a new QB, but should have a better year in 2020 than 2019. Samuel is currently hurt, but that’s the only reason he is this low. I love him so much for late-season value, during fantasy playoffs. Marquise Brown is supposedly healthy, and his upside is ridiculous, just like his floor is concerning. Allen suffers losing Rivers, but retains his potential for huge catch numbers. Mike Williams may very well surpass him in 2020. Ruggs is going to be the guy in Vegas, and should have some big games. And Marvin Jones is a god-level best ball guy, who while inconsistent, can and will win you weeks. This is the meat of the WRs, and some of these guys are gonna make you look really smart come the end of the year.

Tier 4: Fun ceilings, more than minor concerns

Johnson is a guy with excellent upside. This tier has lots of that.
  1. Diontae Johnson: 104-68-816-6:3, (NA)148.6
  2. Brandin Cooks: 91-59-831-5:0, (6-41-0)146.7
  3. Mecole Hardman: 74-45-801-7:2, (6-34-0)146
  4. Jalen Reagor: 87-55-771-5:1, (6-61-1)145.7
  5. Julian Edelman: 107-67-789-5:2, (4-31:0)143.5
  6. Justin Jefferson: 89-59-828-5:1, (NA)141.3
  7. Christian Kirk: 91-58-673-5:0, (13-129-0)139.2
  8. Emmanuel Sanders: 89-56-770-5:0, (NA)135
  9. Jerry Jeudy: 89-61-711-5:1, (NA)130.6
  10. Preston Williams: 91-57-740-5:2, (NA)130.5
  11. CeeDee Lamb: 92-57-736-5:2, (NA)130.1
  12. Jamison Crowder: 97-62-740-4:0, (NA)129
  13. Will Fuller: 79-52-749-4:0, (NA)124.9
  14. Denzel Mims: 69-47-700-5:1, (NA)122.5
  15. Sterling Shepard: 91-57-651-4:1, 5-38-0)120.4
  16. Curtis Samuel: 84-51-588-3:0, (12-106-1)118.9
  17. John Brown: 83-49-689-4:0, (1-11-0)118.5
  18. Anthony Miller: 89-56-718-3:1, (1-8-0)117.6
  19. Michael Pittman: 71-42-603-6:1, (NA)116.3
  20. Corey Davis: 85-55-646-4:1, (NA)115.1
  21. Allen Lazard: 82-52-706-3:1, (NA)113.6
  22. Bryan Edwards: 74-47-599-5:1, (NA)112.4
  23. Robby Anderson: 81-42-606-5:1, (1-6-0)111.2
  24. Steven Sims: 79-47-502-5:1, (8-77-0)110.4
    These guys got real hard to project. Where to begin? Johnson was excellent when JuJu was bad, and I think JuJu is gonna rock socks. Cooks is the Texans WR1, and Fuller could be a wicked number 2, but injuries concern me greatly. If either is healthy all year, they will outperform these projections. Hardman is a breakout candidate, and I have decent exposure to him, but the Chiefs are loaded. Reagor was my number 1 in rookie WR rankings pre-draft, I suspect if healthy he will make me look smart, and these projections look low. Edelman is due plenty of targets, but Cam is not Tom. Jefferson has a real chance to surprise in year one and has been wowing in camp, but camp can be deceiving. Kirk is someone I struggle with. He has excellent chemistry with Kyler and is incredibly athletic, but does he see enough targets? Edwards should see enough looks to be worth a shot. Sanders will benefit from MT and his consistency makes up for his lack of an elite ceiling. Jeudy will play second fiddle to Sutton but Lock’s development is key here also. Preston Williams shined year one, health and targets are his only concerns. Lamb will likely be third fiddle year one, but in this offense, that could equal results. Crowder will absorb tons of targets, but its Mims who has more talent. Anderson has big-play potential but his target share concerns me, along with his head coach. Same goes for all Jets players. Shepard will be overtaken by Slayton, but that Giants O could be spicy. Samuel suffers from Bridgewater syndrome but he is a playmaker. Brown is relegated to fewer targets because of Diggs and I worry he won’t get enough. Miller could break out in a big way if even average QB play supports him. Pittman could surprise as a red zone target for Rivers. Davis has tons to prove in 2020, but Brown looms large. Lazard seems to have the inside track for WR2 in Green Bay, which will result in production if he can hold it. And Sims low key could be a steal this late if Haskins is better in 2020. So much value, so much risk, WR is so deep it is kinda crazy.

Tier 5: Enough potential to roster, but major concerns

The once mighty have fallen far, but Alshon is very capable of putting up serviceable numbers. But the smiles seem less prevalent lately.
  1. Alshon Jeffery: 79-46-603-4:0, (NA)107.3
  2. Larry Fitzgerald: 83-52-548-4:0, (NA)104.8
  3. Golden Tate: 79-47-554-4:1, 3-16-0)103.5
  4. Danny Amendola: 89-59-528-2:1, (NA)93.3
  5. Kenny Stills: 56-36-511-4:0, (NA)93.1
  6. Brandon Aiyuk: 67-41-556-3:1, (NA)93.1
  7. Breshad Perriman: 69-32-501-4:0(NA)90.1
  8. Randall Cobb: 61-41-524-3:1, (NA)89.9
  9. Russell Gage: 75-48-463-3:1, (3-16-0)88.9
  10. Hunter Renfrow: 62-43-491-3:1, (NA)87.6
  11. Devin Duvernay: 52-33-479-3:1, (6-52-0)86.6
  12. Sammy Watkins: 61-36-455-4:1, (NA)86.5
  13. Miles Boykin: 54-31-465-4:0(NA)86
  14. Cole Beasley: 70-44-455-3:1 (NA)84.5
    Oh Alshon, you used to be so good. In the 8 games you were healthy, however many years ago that was. Fitzgerald continues being awesome, but less so in fantasy every year. Tate may be the WR3 in New York, but he has proven production in his past. Amendola will get catches, but I am afraid his best days are behind him. Aiyuk is tricky, when does Deebo return, and how quickly does Aiyuk adapt to the NFL game. Perriman has only shown flashes of health and ability, I need to see more before trusting him more than I do. Cobb is apparently going to be a big part of the Texans offense, but I want to see it before I believe it. Injuries above him could mean good things for him. Gage should not get that many looks without injuries above him. Renfrow might be the odd man out in Vegas. However, he has decent catch potential if he gets to play slot enough. Duvernay is a wild card, and if the Ravens can realize the threat he and Brown could pose to opposing defenses, he will see the field enough to outperform these rankings. He is a weapon, but 2020 may not show it enough. That being said, Boykin should be better in 2020 also. Watkins does not excite me, nor should he you, but he will have some volume in that offense. Beasley is similar to Amendola, and Diggs’ arrival hurts him as well. All these guys are worthy of taking shots on, but expecting surefire production from any may prove unwise.

The WR rankings are in, and the results look promising. Take advantage of the value some of these guys offer in your draft, and you will be sitting pretty heading into 2020. Hate my rankings? You are probably wrong, but I am willing to hear you tell me why. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks, and follow @BellyUpFantasy for all your fantasy sports needs. Be sure to check out our consensus rankings to see where everyone at Belly Up Fantasy has these guys.