In quite a few dynasty leagues, many managers value youth above all else. But is that a correct way to approach QBs? We’ll take a look at young vs old QBs.

For context, here’s the current ADP of the top 24 QBs according to FantasyPros along with their 2021 age:

1. Patrick Mahomes 26
2. Josh Allen 25
3. Kyler Murray 24
4. Lamar Jackson 24
5. Justin Herbert 23
6. Dak Prescott 28
7. Trey Lance 21
8. Russell Wilson 33
9. Trevor Lawrence 22
10. Joe Burrow 25
11. Aaron Rodgers 38
12. Justin Fields 22
13. Deshaun Watson 25
14. Tom Brady 44
15. Ryan Tannehill 33
16. Baker Mayfield 26
17. Jalen Hurts 23
18. Matthew Stafford 33
19. Tua Tagovailoa 23
20. Mac Jones 23
21. Zach Wilson 22
22. Ryan Fitzpatrick 39
23. Matt Ryan 36
24. Kirk Cousins 33

Value

What makes a dynasty fantasy quarterback valuable? Here are four key factors:

1. NFL production
2. Fantasy production
3. Job security
4. Age

In my opinion, these are also listed in order of importance. There are some quarterbacks that check all four boxes, and you can clearly see that with the top three in the previous list. But there are some who only check a few. I’ll go through these four factors.

4. Age

For most NFL players, especially for running backs, higher age is a bad thing. However, it can be a good thing for quarterbacks. With age, comes experience, and age also shows talent. Because it’s a position that’s so shallow, bad QBs aren’t worth rostering, especially if they’re older and have likely hit their full potential. Of the quarterbacks listed, only three are possibly close to retirement. But I’d also say that two of them (Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers) could outlast some of the younger quarterbacks in their 20s. In short, age doesn’t matter nearly as much as the other three factors I have mentioned in young vs old QBs.

3. Job Security

Many in dynasty talk about how high-draft capital rookie quarterbacks are very valuable because they have job security due to draft capital. However, there are issues with this logic. Firstly, these quarterbacks may have some job security but may not even be worth starting. Zach Wilson has had seven weeks below 12 fantasy points and only three above. Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins were both drafted in the first half of the first round and not only didn’t last that long in the NFL, even while they started they put up pretty bad fantasy numbers. In a Superflex league, you may be better off starting a wide receiver or running back over these quarterbacks. But we’ve also seen teams be willing to move on from young QBs, even if they have high draft or salary capital.

On the other hand, all of the QBs on this list who are above 30 are generally worth starting in Superflex leagues (except for Matt Ryan right now, but I’d argue that’s more due to his team than his ability). As mentioned before, it takes talent to stay a starting quarterback for so long. We’ve seen young QBs such as Cam Newton, Jared Goff, and Robert Griffin III have fantastic early years, only to sputter out soon after.

For me, job security due to talent is more important than job security due to draft capital or salary.

2. Fantasy Production

As mentioned before, there’s little point in owning a starting QB if he’s not worth starting on your fantasy team. On the other hand, guys like Taysom Hill and Jalen Hurts may not have much job security, but they help you win weeks due to their rushing upside. If they don’t produce for fantasy, their job security isn’t that important for us fantasy managers.

1. NFL Production

NFL production affects a few things. It affects job security (the better you perform, the more secure your job), and it affects fantasy production. Of course, there are small exceptions like how some quarterbacks mainly game manage their way to wins, which may not be as good for fantasy, but even these quarterbacks should be decent starters in Superflex leagues.

Wrap-Up

I hope this gives you clarity when comparing young vs old QBs. This can depend on your roster. Whether you’re in win-now or win-later mode will affect what types of quarterbacks you value too.

Looking at the ADP list, guys like Matthew Stafford should be valued above guys like Lance, Lawrence, Fields, and Mayfield who have yet to prove NFL production anywhere near what Matthew Stafford can do.

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