What’s the main difference between player valuations in redraft versus dynasty leagues? It’s longevity. However, I am noticing this factor is often overemphasized. This is a warning against overrating youth in dynasty.

Too many people worry about having fantasy players for a decade when in reality, things change so much within that time. Youth doesn’t guarantee longevity for fantasy. I would argue production guarantees it more. Despite the fact that Davante Adams will turn 30 this upcoming season, I’ll still take him over every rookie WR in 2022. Not only am I much more confident he’ll be a stud fantasy asset this upcoming season, but I’m also more confident that will be the case three years from now because I know he can put up numbers.

Projections vs Past Performances

The biggest mistake I see is when people value young prospects based on their potential ceiling rather than what they have actually managed to do on the field. Of course, some players will surpass past production and expectations but that’s usually not what happens. I’ve seen many teams overcompensate for youth by rostering unproven players over proven vets. Either, they reach on rookies and sophomores in startup drafts or they trade people who have been there and done that for ones that haven’t. Just like at a casino, if you take too many gambles, you’re bound to lose.

Young WRs

Let’s take a dive into past young wide receivers. I chose WRs because that usually makes up most of a fantasy roster and this is where I see the mistake most often. RB production is more predictable based on draft capital and salary. And people tend to know not to bet on young TEs. QBs are another area where I see this mistake though. Especially at this position, age really doesn’t matter that much and I’d much rather have a QB who has proven they can perform at the NFL level than the best college quarterback. We’ve seen too many QBs fail in their transition to the pros.

So let’s look at the 1st round rookie WRs over the past three years. In 2019, we got Marquise Brown and N’Keal Harry. In 2020, we had Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk. Last year, we had Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney, and Rashod Bateman.

Of the 13 in this group, only four of these (Jefferson, Chase, Lamb, and Waddle) would be considered locked-in fantasy starters while most of them are now seen as bench players with little upside. On the other hand, we’ll look at someone who is often drafted behind 1st round rookie WRs yet is still a solid fantasy starter.

The Most Underrated Fantasy Player

If you’ve been in the fantasy circle for long, you’ll have heard the narrative that Brandin Cooks is regularly the most constantly underrated fantasy player. Here are Brandin Cooks’ past fantasy finishes in PPR: 55, 13, 9, 15, 13, 62, 16, 20. Those years where he finished outside of the top 20 are years he missed the most games, but he has only missed ten games over those eight years so he has been quite durable and reliable.

So why is he constantly underrated? It’s because he’s considered old and because of that, people don’t think he has upside. However, he’s only 28 and we’ve seen WRs play into their 30s. People would rather call their shot on the next breakout than take the reliable fantasy starter. I still expect many to take late-round rookie WRs over Brandin Cooks this year.

The Goal is to Win

Some people get so caught up in rebuilding and getting younger they forget that they also need to actually win. The following numbers will be from half-PPR. Of the top 12 QBs this past year, 5 are 33 or older. Then, of the top 12 RBs, 8 are at least 26. Only 4 of the top 12 WRs are younger than 26. We also know Tight Ends tend to peak in their late 20s and you can see that with our current TE landscape. People who completely avoid older players will likely struggle to win championships.

Wrap-Up

I am not saying youth isn’t important in fantasy and it is okay to shoot for upside. However, don’t disregard the value of veterans who have shown that they can perform. Even in dynasty formats, ageing players can still carry a lot of value. I wrote an article about how Rebuilding is About Winning trades that you might find helpful regarding this concept.

If you found this article helpful, check out other Belly Up Fantasy Sports articles at Belly Up Fantasy and you can follow me at @liuac.