Friday, May 03, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

Best Trade in a Rebuild

Patrick Mahomes

Whether you made bad draft or trade decisions, held onto a competing team too long, or took over an orphan team, you may have a terrible team on your hands that has no good chance of competing for the next 2 years.

If that’s the case, you may need to go into a full rebuild. I won’t get into it too much, but in general, in a multi-year rebuild, you only want assets that will maintain or increase their value. You also don’t need to worry at all about winning weeks. If you’re new to dynasty, that may be a very foreign feeling. One key strategy I use is what I would consider the best trade in a rebuild.

Patience

Odds are, at least 60% of your league is aiming to win this year. The rest are likely hoping to win next year. It’s rare to find a team that is ready to punt two years. That’s why 2024 1sts are the best pieces to trade for in a rebuild. With the immediacy of the 2022 draft and the hype associated with the 2023 class along with how far out they are, most people aren’t highly valuing the 2024 picks, making them much cheaper to aquire. Many won’t have the patience for this as those picks are currently two years away.

I’ve seen players try to rebuild then get impatient and try to win too early. There’s no point chasing production now when the odds of winning are so small. Worrying about current production too early will likely only hurt the rebuild. You need to be patient. In fact, losing weeks can help you if you have your own picks. That being said, I don’t condone sitting your best players to intentionally lose weeks.

Counter-Argument

The main argument I see to this is for people to take a more balanced approach. This can work but it’s riskier. Having a reckless approach to my team in trading players for picks that will be worth more allows me to increase the value on my team much quicker. Plus, if an opportunity arises for me to target a player I like who I think can breakout, having picks gives me the ability to buy them as they’re as universal a currency as there is in fantasy. Not everyone will want a tight end but almost everyone wants picks.

Example:

I took over an orphan team last year in a 16-team Superflex league where everyone rostered 40 players. My best players were Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, and Dallas Goedert. There was a steep drop-off after that where my remaining assets of note were Laviska Shenault, Cole Beasley, Jordan Love, Parris Campbell, and Dalton Schultz. In combining winning trades with trading for future firsts, I have been able to actually improve my starting lineup while also increasing my draft stock. I know have there top-10 2022 1sts and six 2023 1sts that I project to be top-10 as well. I am also starting Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, D.J. Moore, Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, T.J. Hockenson, and Hunter Henry.

Kyler Murray - Best Trade in a Rebuild
Kyler Murray – SI.com

How to Trade

I wrote an article on The Best Trade in Dynasty. That’s the perfect strategy to pair with this one. Trading your stud players for ones that are valued slightly lower along with their 2024 1sts is a great way to increase the value of your team.

Another strategy is to sell players when their situation leads to them having a peak in their value. I often do this by rostering deep running backs and selling them as soon as RBs ahead of them get injured.

Wrap-Up

Now, this isn’t the only trade you should do. As mentioned in the example, I didn’t just target draft picks, I also improved my team by trying to win trades. You can find an article I wrote about that here. Feel free to do other trades you think you’ll win. With that in mind, don’t do this trade if it’s bad value. The point of this trade is that you should be getting a great value that will pay off in a couple of years.

Draft picks are the safest investment in fantasy. They won’t get injured, retire, or get cut, and they almost always increase in value until the draft. And trading for ones that are far out is often the cheapest way to get them.

If you found this article helpful, check out other Belly Up Fantasy Sports articles at Belly Up Fantasy and you can follow me on Twitter.