Friday, September 20, 2024

Fantasy Football

Week 6 Waiver Wire Adds: Bye Week Bail-outs

As you consider your Week 6 waiver wire moves, you feel an impending sense of dread. It’s here. We all knew it was coming. It was just a matter of time. And now, there will be no escaping it. Sooner or later, you knew you’d have to confront it.

No, we’re not talking about Pumpkin Spice Season. It’s the start of NFL bye weeks.

Week 6 is the first of the NFL bye weeks this season. In eight of the next nine weeks (there are no byes Week 12, oddly), fantasy managers will be forced to get creative as the byes add one more layer to player availability issues. One of the biggest separators of contenders and pretenders is how managers navigate the bye weeks. You want to keep your roster competitive and deep (if top-heavy) and field a viable starting lineup each week. It can be a challenge, especially in deep leagues or formats with extra starting roster slots, no IR, or few bench slots.

This is the time to shine. Show your opponents you’ve done your research and they have no chance. Remember, part of the strategy of bye week navigation is monitoring who ends up getting dropped as your league-mates chase last week’s touchdowns or panic-drop a good player to fill a position decimated by a bye. Making smart pickups off of those moves can be just as important as a winning bid or high waiver priority add. With that, let’s get to perhaps the most obvious move on the Week 6 waiver wire (and possibly of the season.)

Reminder that all point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. Ownership percentages for this week’s column are based on NFL.com league trends.

Week 6 Waiver Wire Running Backs

You gotta make it rain for a possible league-winner. Seattle’s used to it.

Kenneth Walker III (38.0% owned)

Like a certain movie franchise that’s not quite as ubiquitous as Pumpkin Spice, we’ve seen all this before. A talented and otherwise useful fantasy running back for the Seattle Seahawks is injured. Following in the proud tradition of countless others before him (including, oddly, himself) is Rashaad Penny. After a nice start to the season, Penny suffered a broken fibula in Week 5 and is out for the season. Wasting no time, rookie Kenneth Walker stepped in and garnered 88 yards on eight carries, including an electric 69 yard touchdown run.

We don’t often get the opportunity to add a player with this level of season-changing potential. The Seahawks have been better on offense than anyone really expected, and they have run the ball fairly effectively. Walker has explosive potential, as evidenced on his touchdown, and should see more usage in Seattle’s high-octane, Geno Smith-led passing attack (don’t laugh, it’s not hyperbole!) If you have a high waiver priority or have FAAB to blow and are in need of a starting running back, you need to push those chips to the center of the table here. Heck, even if you’re not in need (you are. You always are,) it would behoove you to make a run at acquiring Walker. Think of him as a draft do-over for Najee Harris or Alvin Kamara. Go get him.

Jaylen Warren (0.6% owned)

Najee Harris was a darling of the 2021 fantasy season. Harris finished as RB3 in his rookie season on a team that has traditionally loved the run game and loved to use one guy in the featured role. 2022 has not been the redux we had hoped for. In retrospect, all the signs were there. Harris averaged only 3.9 yards per carry. He was second in the league in carries behind only Jonathan Taylor (the only two players with over 300 carries.) He led the league in running back targets, tying Austin Ekeler with 94 (including 19 in one game!) All those touches resulted in “only” 10 touchdowns. Harris’s numbers were a classic case of volume overcoming efficiency. His targets can be more attributed to Ben Roethlisberger‘s complete lack of downfield passing ability in his final season. Harris was a perfect candidate for negative regression.

This season, while the Steelers’ slightly re-tooled offensive line has actually been fairly effective in pass protection, they still are abysmal in the run game. PFF gave them just a 42.3 run-blocking grade heading into Week 5. Harris has been even less efficient so far this season, and has seen both his carries and targets per game cut from his pace last season. Harris has not looked exceptionally quick or decisive. Rookie Jaylen Warren has looked much quicker and has been more effective in his limited usage. In Week 5, Warren out-snapped Harris 38-37, after splitting snaps roughly three-to-one in the previous three games. Warren also had double his usual opportunities, with five carries and five targets in the game. There’s no guarantee Warren takes this job over, but he’s making it difficult to keep him off the field. He’s basically free for the taking. Be early on him.

Tyler Allgeier (37.5% owned)

Don’t be fooled by Avery Williams lucking into a touchdown this week. Allgeier stepped right into the lead role, playing 59.1 percent of snaps. That’s about the same volume Cordarrelle Patterson was seeing prior to his injury. And Allgeier saw the lion’s share of the touches as well. The Falcons won’t always find themselves in great game script situations, and Marcus Mariota‘s rushing ability takes perhaps more shine off of a traditional back like Allgeier as opposed to a Swiss-Army knife like Patterson, but you’re getting a starting running back with some favorable matchups coming up (the 49ers and Bengals notwithstanding.) He’s worth a look, especially in bye week season.

Week 6 Waiver Wire Wide Receivers

He’s back on the field, and the sky’s the limit, judging by this picture.

Michael Gallup (39.2% owned)

Dallas is a team that is still finding itself offensively. They’ve dealt with numerous injuries and changes on the offensive line. Dak Prescott‘s Week 1 injury threw everyone for a loop (fantasy managers especially.) Dalton Schultz has missed time and has not been the same player we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. And to no one and everyone’s surprise, Mike McCarthy is still learning how to properly use Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard effectively (Buckle up, Cowboy fans. Signed, a Packer Fan.) But Cooper Rush has helped bring some stability to the team and has been, shall we say, pleasantly capable filling in for Prescott. CeeDee Lamb has taken over for the departed Amari Cooper as the team’s WR1 as expected. Noah Brown has filled in nicely operating as the WR2 in Michael Gallup’s absence. They’re still a dangerous offensive team.

Gallup returned from his ACL injury in Week 4 and promptly caught a touchdown. He was second on the team with five targets in Week 5. Last season, Gallup averaged over 10 points per game and has plenty of play-making ability. The Cowboys don’t appear to be easing him back into a role. He’s a good bet to see five or more targets each week, and with Prescott nearing a return and the line settling in, there should be plenty of opportunity for Gallup. He’s a WR4 with upside.

Odell Beckham (11.6% owned)

Beckham, by his own admission, probably won’t be available until November. On top of that, he remains unsigned. But he’s definitely the most intriguing offensive weapon on the open market for NFL teams looking to supplement their attacks for the stretch drive. Beckham was a welcome fill-in for the Rams at WR2 after they lost Robert Woods last season. And to cap a scintillating postseason run, he most likely would’ve been the Super Bowl MVP had he not suffered the injury that keeps him out now.

Obviously, this is a stash-and-see. His value will be greater or lesser depending on his ultimate landing spot, but there will be value here. The Rams, Green Bay, and even Buffalo have all been rumored as landing spots. If you have the roster spot available and can afford working a man down for another month or so, Beckham could be a great add for a wide receiver-needy manager. He has the ability to be the same sort of late-season shot in the arm DeAndre Hopkins looks to be coming off his suspension. Plus, with everyone imitating his signature moment, OBJ has reason to come back with a vengeance. Give him a look.

Wan’Dale Robinson (1.4% owned) and Darius Slayton (0.1% owned)

Listen, I know this is desperation territory. The Giants have used approximately 8,742 wide receivers this season. Most of those have been either injured or less recognizable than your neighborhood’s backup UPS driver. But someone is going to have to catch the passes that Daniel Jones occasionally gets off. Kadarius Toney can’t get on the field. Sterling Shepard is done with an injury. Kenny Golladay may just be done with it all. If Robinson can get healthy, he may be able to fill the role that Toney flashed in at times last season. On the Belly Up Fantasy Live program this Sunday, you heard me talk up Slayton as someone who looked good against the Packers and may be fantasy-relevant by default. If you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel, you might scrape up a hidden gem here. Beggars can’t be choosers, but if you’re begging, take your pick.

Week 6 Waiver Wire Quarterbacks

Let’s be honest, who are you going to throw to? Run, Daniel! Run!

Daniel Jones (8.9% owned)

Speaking of the Giants’ passing game, Daniel Jones has not shot the lights out thus far in his NFL career. Other than a 400-yard outburst against New Orleans last season, he hasn’t had a 300-yard passing game since his rookie year of 2019. Likewise, he hasn’t thrown over two touchdowns in a game since 2019. He has more career games with zero passing touchdowns than multiple passing touchdowns.

What Daniel Jones has done, though, is improve his pass completion percentage every year. And this season, he’s already tied his career-high for rushing touchdowns. He’s a very effective running quarterback, and is on pace for his best rushing totals of his career. He has some favorable matchups coming up. If you need a streamer or are looking for a possible break-out guy, Jones is your man.

Geno Smith (26.5% owned)

What more does he have to do?!? We’re five games into the season. He’s QB6. If you ignored names, there’s no way you’d be rostering him over Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, or a host of others. Pick. Him. The. Flip. Up. You’ll be better off than half your league at quarterback. That’s not me fan-boying, that’s math, well, math-ing.

Week 6 Waiver Wire Tight Ends

Hayden Hurst (9.0% owned)

Hey, I’m throwing just as many darts at tight end as you are, and I’m an expert. Go ahead, I’ll wait while you laugh at that.

Now that you’re done, one guy I’ve already thrown the dart at is Hayden Hurst. Apparently, I’ve been pretty avant-garde in that position. He’s TE11. He’s tied for sixth in the league among tight ends in redzone targets. And he’s on an offense that’s inexplicably struggling to get their top-flight receiver corps involved. Cincinnati still has Joe Burrow. Teams can’t cover everyone, and if they’re forced to choose, I bet they go with covering Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase as the safer option. At a position where no one outside the top two is a safe bet, Hurst warrants more attention than fantasy managers are giving him.

Challenge Chase!

Fear not, fantasy fans. Kevin Wilson will return to the weekly waiver article. In the meantime, ever wonder how you stack up against the experts? Now’s your chance to find out! You can use teams you’ve already drafted to take me on for weekly bragging rights with Flex Fantasy. Visit https://www.flex.fan/bellyup to sign up and challenge me, as I’ll be using lineups from my own home leagues. You can play for fun, play for money, or play for both! Look for SttChaseFFB’s teams in the Flex Fantasy Arena and sign up today. I promise I won’t rub it in (much) when I win. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast Sundays and Wednesdays all season long. Slàinte!