The AFC Championship game will determine the final participants in Super Bowl LVII, and it promises to be a doozy. In a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship tilt, the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. The Bengals will be looking for a second straight trip to the Big Game, while the Chiefs are trying for their third trip in four years. Airing at 6:30 pm EST on CBS, the game features two of the league’s most potent passing attacks. Fantasy points should flow like beer at a Kansas City barbecue joint, and we’re here to help you drink your fill and win those last few DFS contests. We’ve already previewed the NFC Championship, now let’s take a look at the other half of the bracket.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. DFS values are DraftKings Classic ranks. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

AFC Championship Preview: Bengals’ Offense

The Bengals roll into this game winners of 12 of their last 13 games, not counting, of course, the unfinished- and subsequently cancelled- Damar Hamlin game in Week 17 (although, they were leading that game through the moment it was suspended.) Included in that stretch is a Week 13 home win over these same Chiefs. Although it would take 10 fourth quarter points to pull off the 27-24 victory, it would mark the Bengals’ third consecutive win over Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City in calendar year 2022. That recent history is a big reason why Cincy is favored in this contest. Joe Burrow has looked even better than last season, having thrown at least one touchdown in every game this season, including in the playoffs. The confidence is running so high, the Bengals have bragged that the Chiefs’ home field should be renamed “Burrowhead Stadium”.

Cincinnati will need that swagger to prevail in this one, but the opportunity for points is certainly there. That should make fantasy managers happy. The Chiefs present a pretty favorable matchup at just about every position for opposing fantasy players. They’ve surrendered the third-, ninth-, and twelfth-most half ppr points to opposing quarterbacks, wideouts, and tight ends, respectively. Fantasy’s overall QB4 this year, Burrow threw for a pair of scores and ran for another in that Week 13 contest. The Bengals’ top three wideouts each scored double-digit fantasy points in the game as well.

DFS Outlook

Obviously, we’re down to four teams remaining, and they’re all pretty, pretty good. So, no one’s going to come cheap, per se. Ja’Marr Chase ($7,600) is the highest-priced option at wide receiver, while Joe Mixon ($6,500) is second only to Christian McCaffrey at running back. Now, they’re not unusable- far from it- but that pricing is right in line with my rankings on the week. So, while they figure to return value at cost, they’re not going to separate you much. As mentioned, the Bengals are a road favorite. They’re everybody’s darlings right now. The public is on them, so I expect Chase and Mixon to be popular plays. I’m playing them myself, but be aware you’ll probably have to pull some tricks elsewhere to stand out. Tee Higgins is a chalky play at $5,400.

I like Burrow as a value play at $6,800. I actually have him as my QB1 this week. Again, I expect he’ll be widely owned in light of the favorable matchup, price, and press aligning like the planets. I don’t particularly like Hayden Hurst this week, despite his affordable $3,000 price tag. It’s a decent matchup, but he didn’t fare well against the Chiefs in Week 13. And the Bengals only completed one pass to tight ends in last year’s AFC Championship game. There are too many other good options at tight end this week. And I can’t believe I actually typed that… Leave the Bengals’ DST on the shelf. The Chiefs are literally the worst fantasy matchup for opposing DST units.

AFC Championship Preview: Chiefs’ Offense

The big question surrounding the Chiefs all week has been (and will continue to be) the status of Patrick Mahomes’s right ankle. After briefly giving way to Chad Henne in Kansas City’s Divisional Round victory over Jacksonville, Mahomes returned to finish the game. Diagnosed with the dreaded high ankle sprain, Mahomes and the Chiefs insist he’ll be good to go for Sunday. Mahomes does have a history of playing through similar injury in the past, but he certainly looked hobbled following the injury, even with the adrenaline flowing. He did look good in press conferences and has practiced throughout the week, but it’s still a big concern. Anyone looking to play him in DFS lineups needs to be aware of the risk of reinjury.

Mahomes hasn’t played particularly poorly against the Bengals despite the three straight losses. He just hasn’t been MVP-level Mahomes. In the Week 13 game, he threw for one touchdown and ran for another. But his 223 passing yards were his fewest in a game this season outside of Week 18’s beatdown of the Raiders. That Raider game featured the Chiefs rushing for 168 yards, their third-best total of the season, and three scores on the ground to boot. For as little as the press talks about the Bengals’ defense, they’ve been a surprisingly stingy unit against fantasy opponents. They’re by no means an easy matchup for Mahomes, or any of the Chiefs, for that matter.

DFS Outlook

The part of me that knows about football injuries says that Mahomes should be at least somewhat limited by the ankle injury. The part of me that knows about Patrick Mahomes says it may not matter. I have him as my QB3 on the week, and expect him to put up decent numbers. Of course, he’s always a threat to explode. I think fantasy players will shy away from the ankle, losing Mahomes in the glare of Burrows’s spotlight. I’m actually playing Mahomes for that reason this week, even at $7,600. I’m pairing him with Travis Kelce. I mentioned it in my NFC preview, but I like Kelce at FLEX, allowing for Dallas Goedert at tight end. Kelce is just that good. I think you can get good value from Goedert at tight end, and still profit from Kelce. Strange in these tight end-wary times, but there it is.

I’m also stacking Kadarius Toney ($3,700). JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4,700) might feel “safer”, but Toney is an affordable option and a big swing in a big situation. He led the Chiefs’ wideouts in targets and receptions last week, and will have gadget plays and designed runs schemed in to utilize his unique skillset. None of the other Kansas City receivers has been all that consistent. Mecole Hardman ($3,500) and Justin Watson ($3,000) are both questionable. Skyy Moore ($3,000) is a barely-used rookie. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is, well, Marquez Valdes-frickin’-Scantling. $3,600 is $3,600. Spend it elsewhere. I’m also not high on Isiah Pacheco ($5,300) or Jerick McKinnon ($5,400) this week. They’re just fine, but uninspiring plays this week.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Bengals (-0.5)

Over/Under: 50

Notable Props: Joe Burrow passing yards (259.8); Joe Mixon rushing touchdowns (0.6); Ja’Marr Chase receiving yards (85.8); Patrick Mahomes passing touchdowns (1.8); Travis Kelce receptions (6.9); JuJu Smith-Schuster receiving yards (39.4)

Best of Luck!

Here’s hoping your playoff fantasy contests go well and you get to live the lesser dream for awhile. Remember to check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and entertaining insight. Rankings, game previews, and betting advice will help you cash in this postseason! As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week.