Sunday, May 05, 2024

Fantasy Football

NFC Championship Preview

We’re down to the NFL’s final four teams. This weekend will see the participants for the Super Bowl determined in two games that will feature some of the league’s most explosive offensive attacks and some of its most stifling defenses. We’ve previewed the AFC game. But here in the NFC Championship Game, the San Francisco 49ers will travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles. The game airs on FOX at 3:00 pm EST this Sunday, January 29. As we face our last few opportunities for fantasy success for the season, the player pools are considerably smaller than what we generally see. You’ll have to draw on all your knowledge and zig when others zag if you want to stand out. Fortunately, we have you covered.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. DFS values are DraftKings Classic ranks. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

NFC Championship Preview: 49ers’ Offense

It’s almost unfair to have this level of versatility on the same roster.

Brock Purdy and the 49ers continue to find a way. Against the Dallas Cowboys last week, Purdy failed to throw multiple touchdowns for the first time since taking the reins as the starting quarterback, a string of seven games. In fact, Purdy was held without a single touchdown on the ground or through the air. Nevertheless, the 49ers were unfazed and kept Brockin’ in the Free World, getting just enough offense to squeeze past the Cowboys 19-12. It was a rough fantasy day for anyone not named Christian McCaffrey or George Kittle. Neither Deebo Samuel nor Brandon Aiyuk was able to get loose against the Dallas secondary.

The game actually showcased how dangerous the ‘Niners can be, as even with their offense struggling against the Cowboys’ tough defense, San Francisco had enough weapons to get the job done. Of course, a ton of credit goes to the San Francisco defense for holding the Cowboys to just 12 points. Dallas had been the league’s third-highest scoring team this season, but Nick Bosa and crew were having none of it. This was the type of game championship teams need to win, and the 49ers showed they could do it. Their combination of potent offense and immovable defense was the reason I foresaw them making it to the Super Bowl when I released my playoff fantasy draft rankings.

DFS Outlook

Philadelphia is a tough row to hoe for opposing fantasy players. They were among the league’s stingiest defenses against every fantasy position except running back, where they gave up the fourteenth-most half ppr points to opponents. Of course, they didn’t face the 49ers’ offense every week. I still have the ‘Niners going to the Big Game, so of course I see them scoring points. McCaffrey at his customary $8,000 is of course expensive, but likely to justify the investment. Likewise, you can pay up for Kittle and expect to break even. I think Samuel is a little underpriced at $5,700, but so will everyone else. That doesn’t mean you can’t play him, just be aware it won’t necessarily be contrarian. Aiyuk ($4,400) might be, however. He’s inexpensive, and hasn’t made a big splash yet this postseason. He also has two redzone targets (nine overall). He’ll have chances.

If you’re trying to stand out from the crowd, you could also give Elijah Mitchell a look. He’ll be affordable ($4,900), allowing you to spend more at receiver or splurge at tight end. He’s had a pretty quiet postseason, so the masses will be off him. But he only has two fewer carries than CMC through two games, and he’s had terrible luck in the redzone (five carries for negative-four yards.) He actually has one more redzone target than McCaffrey. Now he is questionable to play, so keep an eye on his status. But if he plays, he could be a counter-culture shot in the arm for GPP formats. If he doesn’t go, Jordan Mason doesn’t inspire the same excitement at $4,000. And every defense is a leap of faith at this point, but you’ll have to spend more to take that leap with San Francisco ($3,000).

NFC Championship Preview: Eagles’ Offense

Philadelphia’s offense has put a whoopin’ on opponents all year.

The Eagles didn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence over the last month of the season. A pair of losses sandwiched between narrow wins over the Bears and the Giants’ AA Trenton squad saw them back into the NFC’s top seed when they looked to have been running away with it. Jalen Hurts‘s health was in question. Miles Sanders had done next-to-nothing since a big Week 14 game. The defense dried up. Over the season’s first 13 games, the Eagles had a +14 turnover margin. Over the last four, that margin was -6.

That all changed last week. Apparently, the bye was just what the doctor ordered for Nick Sirianni’s troops, as the Eagles came out looking determined and crushed the Giants in the teams’ third meeting of the season. Philly dominated the trenches on both sides of the ball, forced Daniel Jones into poor throws all day, and erased Saquon Barkley as a factor. When it was all said and done, the Eagles sent the Giants packing 38-7. It was the first time the Eagles held an opponent to a single score since Week 3 versus Washington. The run game went wild no matter who toted the rock. The passing game, meanwhile, was used sparingly, but effectively. This looked like the team we’d watched storm to a 13-1 record before the late season swoon. This looked like a top seed.

DFS Outlook

Alas, the Eagles get to face perhaps the toughest defense in the league as a reward for last week’s performance. San Francisco surrendered the fewest points and the second-fewest yards of any defense in the NFL this season. Fantasy-wise, they were a bottom-10 matchup across the board- except at wide receiver. They’ve given up the second-most half-ppr points to the receiver position this season. Coincidentally, wide receiver happens to be a big strength for the Eagles. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will cost you $7,000 and $6,800, respectively, if you’re looking to get some of that action in your DraftKings lineup. I actually have them flipped in my rankings this week, meaning I think Smith might be the better value. That said, Brown is always a threat for 150+ and a couple scores. I wouldn’t fault you for taking either.

Sanders is facing fantasy’s worst matchup, which may keep others off of him. But Sanders played seven games against fantasy’s top-10 defenses against the run, and seven against the bottom 10. He actually scored more points against the tougher opponents, even including his explosion against the Giants in Week 14 inflating his stats against the bottom 10. Philadelphia had PFF’s top-ranked offensive line this season. I think people will shy away from Sanders in the matchup. But I’d jump on him as the cheapest starter at running back. You save for elsewhere and go against the herd at the same time. Win-win, baby. I like Dallas Goedert‘s value at tight end (even more if you play Travis Kelce in your FLEX.) Hurts will be fine but may underperform for the price. Philly’s DST is a good play, but everyone will want them this week against a rookie quarterback. Be aware.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Eagles (-1.5)

Over/Under: 48.5

Notable Props: Brock Purdy passing yards (297.1); George Kittle receiving yards (41.1); Nick Bosa sacks (0.7); Jalen Hurts passing touchdowns (1.2); Miles Sanders rushing yards (51.6); Dallas Goedert receptions (4.3)

Best of Luck!

Here’s hoping your playoff fantasy contests go well and you get to live the lesser dream for awhile. Remember to check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and entertaining insight. Rankings, game previews, and betting advice will help you cash in this postseason! As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week.