This is the 11th of 32 Ceilings and Floors, covering each NFL team’s QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. We continue with the AFC South, and the Jacksonville Jaguars. In case you missed it, here is the breakdown for the Indianapolis Colts. (Depth Charts courtesy of footballguys.com)
Ceilings and Floors: Quarterback
QB1: Gardner Minshew
CEILING: Minshew Mania returns, and after a decent rookie season, he explodes in 2020. 34 TDs, 4,100 yards, and a sponsorship with seven different mustache conditioning companies. Both of these would be awesome.
FLOOR: MInshew is Jeremy Lin 2.0, a flash in the pan that was fun while it lasted, but not real. 25 TDs, 3,100 yards.
PREDICTION: I believe in the magic, I believe in the Minshew. I see 30 TDs and 3,600 yards passing.
QB2: Joshua Dobbs
CEILING: Dobbs has yet to prove anything in the NFL, his ceiling is making this roster, I do not expect him to remain QB2, so I won’t lie about his ceiling. It isn’t pretty.
FLOOR: I think I sum it up nicely in the ceiling.
PREDICTION: He doesn’t play a single down.
QB3: Mike Glennon, QB4: Jake Luton
CEILING: Both of these guys could be QB2 before the season starts. Glennon has played and is a veteran in the locker room. Luton has the higher upside but remains unproven. I could see either scoring 22 times, and adding 3,000 yards passing if Minshew goes down preseason.
FLOOR: Neither play a snap, Glennon is washed up, Luton is a bust, and somehow Dobbs retains QB2, making me look like an idiot.
PREDICTION: They both make an NFL roster.
Ceilings and Floors: Running Back
RB1: Leonard Fournette
CEILING: Fournette fixes his career after two straight disappointing years, and finds the end zone 12 times for 1,800 total yards.
FLOOR: The Jags get fed up, he is released, and he signs somewhere else, where they can pay him for his declining TD production.
PREDICTION: Fournette set a career-high for rushing yards, receiving yards, and catches last year. I think the Jags will be improved on offense. I expect 8 TDs and 1,400 total yards.
RB2: Ryquell Armstead
CEILING: Fournette goes down or is relocated, and Armstead performs admirably in his stead, scoring 6 TDs to go with 1,100 scrimmage yards.
FLOOR: Fournette owns the backfield once again, and Armstead is looking at 50 total touches like last year, offering little in terms of fantasy value.
PREDICTION: I don’t really think Armstead offers much value except as a handcuff for Fournette, and even then, I am not sure he gains the most if Fournette is out of the equation.
RB3: Chris Thompson
CEILING: A career 6.4 yards per touch makes Thompson a dark horse for more touches if Fournette exits. Being a feature back seems overly ambitious, but a 103 touch, 804 total yard, 6 TD season has already happened for him, and he could be a quality depth piece if the cards fall just right.
FLOOR: He doesn’t have it anymore, he has aged and injured his way out of the league.
PREDICTION: I like Thompson as a streaming option for fantasy teams with poor RB depth, especially if one of the two guys ahead of him goes down. 3 TDs, 500 yards, but all those stats happen in 4 games.
RB4: Devine Ozigbo, RB5: Roc Thomas, RB6: James Robinson
CEILING: Special teams contributors, scout team heroes.
FLOOR: Even the scout team doesn’t want them.
PREDICTION: These guys have no real shot to show what they can do, and it won’t be necessary to remember them come fantasy draft day.
Ceilings and Floors: Wide Receiver
WR1: DJ Chark
CEILING: Chark broke out in 2019 and he continues trending up in 2020, forging more chemistry with Minshew. 13 TDs, 1,400 yards.
FLOOR: Chark has peaked, and we get a 6 TD performance, with 900 yards.
PREDICTION: I am into Chark Attacks, and foresee an excellent year for him. 11 TDs, 1,100 yards. I am high on him in 2020.
WR2: Dede Westbrook
CEILING: Westbrook gains some consistency in 2020, and posts a solid line of 7 TDs and 900 yards receiving.
FLOOR: Westbrook is passed in the depth chart by more talented wideouts, finishing the year with 3 TDs and 450 yards.
PREDICTION: I like other WRs more than him in Jacksonville, but he doesn’t suck. 3 TDs and 500 yards.
WR3: Chris Conley
CEILING: Conley builds on a solid 2019 campaign with 8 TDs and 900 yards, moving up to WR2.
FLOOR: Conley moves down to WR4, limiting his touches and his fantasy value. 2 TDs and 200 yards.
PREDICTION: I like Conley as the WR3 here. Give me 5 TDs and 550 yards.
WR4: Laviska Shenault
CEILING: Hey there, rook! Shenault comes out of the gate hot, and forces his way into the WR2 slot, catching 8 TDs and adding 1,000 yards receiving.
FLOOR: Shenault has growing pains, or doesn’t fully return from injury, and is limited to 2 TDs and 300 yards receiving.
PREDICTION: I like Shenault and think he fits in well with this offense. I expect 6 TDs and 700 yards, with a bright future ahead if he stays healthy.
WR5: Keelan Cole
CEILING: Emerges as depth for the Jaguars WR corps, scoring 3 TDs to go along with 500 yards receiving.
FLOOR: Gets lost in the depth chart, and disappears from memory abruptly.
PREDICTION: Too many guys I like more here, and Cole is an odd man out. I’m projecting negligible fantasy stats.
WR6: Collin Johnson
CEILING: Emerges as a read zone threat, securing 6 TDs for 250 yards.
FLOOR: Does not play, at all. No snaps, no special teams.
PREDICTION: Johnson has the size you like in a red zone target, but it’s doubtful he has much of an impact year one. He needs to get stronger. Worthy of a stash in dynasty leagues, but not useful as of now in redraft.
WR7: Michael Walker, WR8: C.J. Board
CEILING: Invisible to the human eye.
FLOOR: Selling scooters to the elderly in Florida.
PREDICTION: Hey, they made it into the NFL, something I know nothing about. Still, they won’t be there long.
Ceilings and Floors: Tight End
TE1: Tyler Eifert
CEILING: Eifert returns to peak form, dominating in the red zone. 10 TDs, 700 yards receiving.
FLOOR: Eifert had one good year before injuries robbed him of what made him special. He is no longer very good and is passed in the depth chart by someone better. 3 TDs and 400 yards receiving.
PREDICTION: I see Eifert scoring some TDs, I will say 5, but only accounting for 500 yards receiving.
TE2: James O’Shaughnessy
CEILING: 3 TDs, doubling his career numbers over the past 5 years.
FLOOR: He ends the year still at 3 career TDs, along with 72 yards receiving.
PREDICTION: He has not been good, he will not be good, and he will not finish the year as the TE2 for fantasy purposes.
TE3: Josh Oliver
CEILING: I love this guy. After a disappointing rookie year cut short by injury, Oliver erupts as the Jaguars best tight end, scoring 8 TDs to go along with 850 yards receiving.
FLOOR: Oliver struggles with his health, and has lost his edge due to the injuries. He finishes the season without a catch.
PREDICTION: I think Oliver has a large gap between his ceiling and floor, and I am optimistically hoping for 6 TDs and 700 yards. If you can get him late, he is worth a flier, especially in dynasty.
TE4: Tyler Davis, TE5: Charles Jones
CEILING: Backup long snapper, 8 catches between them.
FLOOR: 0 statistical contributions
PREDICTION: You care about these two as much as I do, which is to say not at all.