Where a rookie lands in the NFL draft can have a massive impact on the trajectory of their NFL career. This is especially true of rookie tight ends, because certain offenses use them differently, and tight end is a difficult position to play as a rookie anyways. Often, rookie tight ends are complete non-factors, even if drafted early. With that being said, the rookie fantasy value of tight ends is trending in the right direction. Noah Fant had over 500 yards as a rookie tight end. Evan Engram had over 700 yards as a rookie tight end in 2017. Before Engram, the last tight end to have over 500 yards as a rookie was John Carlson in 2008.

Three-time Pro Bowler Greg Olsen may have said it best. In a 2018 interview, the former Panther said “In my 12 years now there’s been a handful of rookies that have come in and been productive. You don’t see the production level early at the tight end position that you do at wide receiver or running back or even the offensive line. I don’t know why.”

“You don’t see the production level early at the tight end position that you do at wide receiver or running back or even the offensive line.”

Greg Olsen, 2018 Interview with ESPN

With all of this said, this article will be skewed more towards long-term value than the others in the series. The article also takes into account which coaches and organizations have utilized tight ends as a receiver in the past, as not all offenses are great fits for a new tight end even if they don’t have a great one now.

The Tennessee Titans

The Titans are on this list because their current starting tight end Jonnu Smith is currently a free agent. If he re-signs to the team, disregard this portion. In 2020, the Titans targeted the tight end position 134 times, good for fourth-most in the league. As of now, neither of the team’s top two tight ends is on the roster.

The aforementioned Jonnu Smith led the team at the position with 65 targets. Anthony Firkser, also a free agent, was second with 53 targets. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Titans ran a grand total of eight plays without at least one tight end on the field in 2020. In fact, the Titans ran plays with more than two tight ends over 50 percent of the time.

One may have been worried if the Titans looked outside the building to replace new Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator. Not only did the team hire from within, they did so by promoting tight end coach Todd Downing.

In summary, the Titans are a run-first team that has a tight end on the field the majority of the time. Often, they have two tight ends on the field. Their passing offense is largely based on play-action passes out of running formations. Their new offensive coordinator was the team’s tight ends coach from 2019-2020 and was the Vikings tight ends coach the year before that. The Titans as of now have neither of their top 2 2020 tight ends on the roster. All of these signs point to the Titans being by far the best landing spot for rookie tight ends in the 2021 NFL Draft.

The Indianapolis Colts

Staying in the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts are another team that may add at tight end this offseason. Philip Rivers and co. targeted the position 117 times during the 2020 NFL season, which placed them 14th in the league. It is also worth mentioning the immense success that tight ends in years past have had in Frank Reich‘s offense. Zach Ertz and Eric Ebron have both played great football in his schemes. with Ebron having played his best statistical season for Reich in 2018.

Trey Burton led the tight end group in 2020. Despite playing in just 13 games, the former Eagle was targeted 47 times. Mo-Alie Cox, who did not play collegiate football, was second in targets with 39. That was a career-high for the Virginia Commonwealth graduate. Cox, admittedly, will likely re-sign with the team as a restricted free agent, but if he doesn’t the Colts will absolutely need to target someone else.

Jack Doyle has been the technical starter for the Colts for much of his career, but plays more of an underneath role as a receiver and is primarily a blocker. While he boasts a career catch percentage of over 70, he has never surpassed 700 yards receiving and hasn’t gone over 500 since 2017.

With Doyle turning 31 before the season and Mo-Alie Cox turning 28 during it, even if the Colts do return both they will likely need a long-term solution at the position. Given Reich’s track record at tight end, the team is a landing spot that could be great for rookie tight ends.

The Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are difficult to project at the tight end position. On one hand, Urban Meyer wasn’t exactly known for them in college. He had a couple of great ones that were utilized well at Florida, but they never seemed to be a prominent part of his Ohio State offenses. That being said, his new offensive coordinator and play-caller Darrell Bevell used the tight end position a lot in 2020.

As the offensive coordinator and eventual interim head coach of the Detroit Lions this past season, Bevell put at least one tight end on the field for all but 20 snaps. Not only was there almost always a tight end on the field, but he also had more than one tight end on the field over 24 percent of the time. The Detroit Lions were 11th in the NFL in tight end targets as well, so it wasn’t as if the team was using the position exclusively to block either. T.J. Hockenson‘s 98 targets in 2020 were 5th amongst all tight ends.

Given Bevell’s past, it is likely that a tight end will have a big role in the new Jaguars offense. It is also likely that the tight end will be one that is not currently on the Jaguars roster. The team’s top two tight ends in 2020 were James O’Shaugnessy and Tyler Eifert. Both, as of now, are set to leave the team as unrestricted free agents. That leaves Josh Oliver, Tyler Davis, Ben Ellefson, and Eric Saubert on the roster. That group has combined for a grand total of 14 receptions over the entirety of their respective careers. Davis and Oliver were both drafted by the Jaguars, with Oliver being a former third-round pick, but neither has been productive NFL players yet. Given that the team is now run by a new General Manager, I doubt there will be any loyalty to the unproven players left on the roster.

The Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks will run the ball more in 2020 if Pete Carroll has his way. That could certainly mean seeing a tight end on the field often in Seattle is a likelihood moving forward. They could also be involved more going forward. The team has made a change at offensive coordinator, and the offense will now be led by former Rams passing game coordinator Shane Waldron. Waldron also spent the 2017 season as the Rams tight ends coach.

With the Rams, Waldron’s pass game was definitely tight end friendly. The team was just 15th in tight end passing targets, but both Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett had healthy production. Both tight ends had over 50 targets in 2020. By comparison, last year the Seahawks targeted the position 103 times with Greg Olsen leading the team with 37. Due to the depleted nature of the position, no single tight end was able to take advantage of the targets. The tight end position was almost always on the field in 2020 for the Seahawks. In fact, the Seahawks personnel included a tight end 98% of the time in 2020.

Will Dissly is the only tight end left on the Seahawks roster that has been productive as a receiver. In 2020, though, even he struggled at the position. The former fourth-round pick was productive when healthy his first two seasons, but recorded just 251 yards in 2020. For reference, he had more receiving yards in 2019, when he played in just 6 games. The Seahawks will likely add at the position tight end position. As long as Russell Wilson stays in Seattle the Seahawks’ tight end will be valuable in fantasy.

The Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are similar to the Seahawks in that the value of the starter at the tight end position could change massively this offseason if a move is made at quarterback. As of now, though, the Texans employ one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. As long as they do, there’s potential for the team’s starting tight end to be fantasy valuable.

The Texans tight end group and its usage was a mess in 2020. The team’s top tight end was Jordan Akins, with Darren Fells having the second most targets. That being said, neither broke 50 targets and the team was 24th in tight end targets. The good news for rookie tight ends, though, is that Bill O’Brien and his regime are gone. It is time for the David Culley era. The Ravens, where Culley was the passing game coordinator, were only 20th in total tight end targets. That being said, Mark Andrews was a massive part of the team’s passing game. Andrews was second on the team with 88 targets. The Ravens also had a tight end on the field 91% of the time,

I don’t think competition should be an issue either. Yes, both of the team’s top 2020 tight ends remain under contract. Akins will be 29 when the season starts and Fells will be 35. Neither has ever had more than 500 yards receiving in a season in their respective careers. In fact, both players had their career-best seasons in 2019 with the Texans and their second-best seasons in 2020. The past two years are the best they have to offer. I feel strongly that a rookie tight end could supplant them at the least by 2022.

The New England Patriots

The New England Patriots are the most interesting case to me on this list. This is due to the 2020 production at the tight end position or lack thereof. The Patriots targeted the tight end position just 28 times last season, easily last in the NFL. Since Rob Gronkowski retired and left the team, the Patriots have gotten nearly no productivity out of the position.

There are two reasons that I think the Patriots are still a good landing spot. The first is that despite the fact that tight end has been a weak position for the team, there was still at least one on the field for 94 percent of the snaps. The team still uses the tight end position, just not as receivers. This, I think, is because they don’t have any that warrant throwing to. The Patriots know, though, that at its best the tight end is the ultimate mismatch position. Given how bad their offense has been since they heavily used tight ends, I expect them to go back in that direction.

The other reason that I think the Patriots will be a good landing spot for rookie tight ends is that prior to Gronkowski’s retirement, the team was almost always in the top half of the league in tight end targets. Once again, the coaching didn’t change. The personnel did. The Patriots almost always have tight ends on the field and have a history of using them as receivers well. If the Patriots add a tight end who can catch the ball, I think they will use them that way. That’s what the Patriots do, after all. They put players in positions to use their strengths.

Enjoy this content? Check out other Belly Up Fantasy Football Posts here. Also, follow my Twitter @lheureuxadam for more fantasy football and general football content from me. Find the wide receivers version of this article here and the running back version here.