The landing spot for a rookie can change everything. Football is the ultimate team sport, of course. Without a good supporting cast, making an impact as an individual is incredibly difficult. This is especially true for rookies. It is even more so true for rookies who weren’t taken on Day One of the NFL Draft. This year’s draft class, like last year’s, has been said to contain a loaded group of rookie wide receivers.

A team will put effort into making sure that players like Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Ja’Marr Chase are productive in both the short and long-terms. Someone like Elijah Moore, though? He will have to earn his snaps. The aim of this article is to determine which NFL teams will give rookie wide receivers the best chance to have success in Dynasty fantasy football leagues. Since the article is for dynasty, some landing spots may not have a ton of short-term value, but the top spots all have both short and long-term value.

The Detroit Lions

The 2020 statistically leading receiver for the Detroit Lions that is still on the roster in 2021 is Quintez Cephus. Cephus was a rookie fifth-rounder last season who compiled 20 receptions for 349 yards while playing 37% of the snaps. Mohammed Sanu was in second. Sanu recorded 16 receptions for 178 yards. Between Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Hall 246 combined targets will be leaving the team. That is why the Detroit Lions lead this list.

I’m not sure what the offense will look like under Anthony Lynn and Dan Campbell. As I mentioned in my last article Dan Campbell was a big proponent of the run game. Anthony Lynn was also a running backs coach for much of his career. Despite that, though, the Chargers had a strong passing attack for much of his tenure. Regardless of their scheme, though, they’ll have to pass at some point. Even if one assumes that Quintez Cephus takes on a starting role in 2021, there are so many extra targets to go around that any rookie receiver that lands here will have value.

If you have a later draft I would keep a close eye on how the depth chart seems to be shaping up throughout camp (if camp happens this year), but any receiver that the Lions end up drafting will have a chance to take some of the open targets.

The New York Jets

I just want to preface this section by saying I have a ton of faith in Robert Saleh, Mike LaFleur, and the new Jets coaching staff. There are a lot of unknowns surrounding how exactly things will go, but LaFleur has been around a lot of great minds in San Francisco and at home with his brother Matt LaFleur. Throughout his coaching career, Mike LaFleur has been in positions such as quarterback coach, wide receiver coach, and most recently passing game coordinator. This leads me to believe that the passing game will be something that he uses heavily and is hands-on with.

The biggest reason that the New York Jets are one of my favorite landing spots for rookie wide receivers is the available target volume. With Breshad Perriman likely to leave as an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA), his 60 targets are immediately available. Perriman’s 60 targets were second on the team. Jamison Crowder led the team in targets with 89 and Braxton Berrios was third on the team with 55 targets. Both Crowder and Berrios will be UFAs after the 2021 season.

If neither is re-signed over 200 targets will be available. There is a chance that either or both will be re-signed, but neither has ever had a 1,000-yard season and given the state of the Jets the rebuild will take a few seasons at minimum. Re-signing a veteran receiver who is a WR2 at best doesn’t make sense for the Jets franchise, and re-signing to a franchise that probably won’t be a winning team before his 30’s doesn’t make sense for Jamison Crowder.

That doesn’t mean that a rookie receiver will have no competition, though. The team and notably current General Manager Joe Douglas drafted Denzel Mims in the second round of the 2020 draft. Mims was a starter when he was healthy and would have been in the top three in targets had he played the entire season. He figures to play into the long-term future of the wideout position for the Jets. If one figures that the team’s other notable receivers are all gone after this upcoming season, though, none of that matters. I also don’t believe that Berrios is good enough to prevent the team from playing another receiver in the short term.

Denzel Mims is likely the future of the team at the ‘X’ receiver position but I think the team will have openings for the rest of their receiver corps in the near future. One of the many receivers in this class that figures to play in the slot or as a possession boundary receiver would be an excellent addition to the team. Whoever the next quarterback of the Jets is, Joe Douglas may decide to get a long-term weapon for him in the same draft class. If he does, I would invest.

The Miami Dolphins

I, for one, am a fan of Tua Tagovailoa. I am willing to invest in his receivers, and it seems like there is room to do so moving forward. Devante Parker is the only obvious starter on the team. Nobody else currently on the roster has ever played over half the snaps for an NFL season as a WR. The are plenty of snaps for rookie wide receivers to take. Jakeem Grant was second among wide receivers on the team in targets. This may be blunt, but I don’t think he should be taking significant receiver snaps. He is an excellent returner and has value as a utility player, but not a starting WR. Isaiah Ford was the team’s other starting wide receiver in 2020, but he is now a UFA.

There are two young receivers on the Dolphins that make investing in the team’s receiver corps a risk. Their names are Lynn Bowden Jr. and Preston Williams. After being drafted by the Raiders in the third round as an RB, Bowden Jr. was traded to the Dolphins after playing 0 snaps for them. It took him time, but he excelled as a receiver down the stretch. He is someone to monitor this offseason. Preston Williams is the other receiver I worry about. The former undrafted free agent has all the physical tools to be an NFL starter and has shown flashes. While the potential is there, he has yet to play more than eight games in a season. Neither player should prevent the team from adding at the position, but both could challenge rookie wide receivers for targets and snaps.

The New Orleans Saints

This landing spot is easily the riskiest on the list, but I think it offers the highest risk/reward potential in the NFL. Investing in this spot is like buying a lottery ticket. Please beware.

The Saints have their starting wide receiver trio figured out. It is Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Tre’Quan Smith. End of story. Or is it? I don’t doubt that if on the roster, these three will start. I have questions about the futures of Sanders and Thomas, though. Sanders, for his part, is just getting up there in age. He will be 34 years old when the 2021 NFL season begins. With how atrocious the Saint’s cap room looks, he could simply be a cap casualty. Even if not, his time on the team won’t last much longer.

After a historic 2019 season, Michael Thomas averaged less than 65 yards-per-game in 2020. Much of the drop-off can be attributed to his injuries, but this is still alarming. There have also been many rumored points of contention between him and the team. All that being said, he does seem to have a great relationship and respect for Drew Brees. I think that as long as Brees is there, he will be too. After Brees retires, though, I could see Payton moving on from him too. He’s expensive and will be 28 when the season starts. Once the team goes in a new direction at QB, rebuilding with a younger WR corps wouldn’t be that crazy.

Saints’ WR Michael Thomas is likely to have surgeries on both the torn deltoid and other injured ligaments in his high ankle this offseason, per source. He knew it was likely Drew Brees’ last year and didn’t want to miss out trying win a Super Bowl with him.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 19, 2021

As I said, there’s a ton of risk here. If Sanders and Thomas are gone, though, whoever replaces them in Sean Payton‘s offense will be incredibly valuable as long as Payton can find even a half-decent quarterback. Payton has had one of the best offenses in the NFL for a decade. If the cost is low, I’d be excited to buy a lottery ticket with the chance to win a big piece of his offense.

The New York Giants

The Giants are an example of a team that has plenty of depth receivers but no WR1. The situation for the Giants is much safer than that of the Saints but probably has a much lower floor as well. I don’t know that an offense led by Jason Garrett and Daniel Jones has the potential to support a bonafide WR1, but I do know that they need WR help. All three of the Giants’ 2020 starters at receiver are on contract for the 2021 season, but the team needs to make moves at the position.

Darius Slayton has performed well for his fifth-round draft position in 2019. He is a very solid receiver and one the team should continue to build around. Despite that, I don’t think he is someone that should stop the Giants from adding receivers. I just don’t view him as a WR1. I would feel much more comfortable with him at WR2. Sterling Shepard is a similar player. Considered by many to be the heir-apparent when Odell Beckham Jr. was traded, Shepard never took the next step. He is still a WR2-type player. Finally, there’s Golden Tate. As a Notre Dame fan, Tate has been one of my favorite players in the league for a long time, but he’s getting to about that age. Tate has involved himself in a handful of controversies in New York, including a suspension and an outburst about his lack of targets.

I consider Golden Tate a pretty likely cap casualty this offseason. If he is released, a new receiver will still have Slayton and Shepard to worry about. Honestly, Jason Garrett and Daniel Jones worry me more than those two. If the team is committed to Daniel Jones, though, they will upgrade the WR position to give him a real chance. If they add any rookie wide receivers, they should have a plan to use them. I think Joe Judge knows this. That’s why I’d be willing to invest.

The Philadelphia Eagles

The 2020 Philadelphia Eagles offense was a disaster. As a result, the Eagles fired Doug Pederson just four years after a Super Bowl win. The Eagles also traded away Carson Wentz just four years after a season that made him the highest NFL Top 100 debut of all time. If the building is on fire in Philadelphia, why should you invest? Opportunity. Yes, Howie Roseman and the team have recently invested high draft picks at the position in Jalen Reagor and JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The two of them, though, combined for less than 500 yards receiving and 1 receiving touchdown in 2020. Jalen Reagor‘s career-high in receiving yards so far is just 55 yards. What makes matters worse for him is that those 55 yards came in week one. They also came from one reception.

Despite the presence of recent big investments, Travis Fulgham and Greg Ward were the most productive WRs on the team. Fulgham was a 6th-round pick for the Lions in 2019 but had no receptions during his rookie year. Greg Ward was signed as an undrafted free agent to the Eagles in 2019. In 2020, Fulgham had 539 yards and Ward had 419. Ward is not on the roster for 2021, but the team will likely bring the exclusive rights free agent back. The two were first and third on the team in receiving yards, respectfully.

Maybe one of Reagor or Arcega-Whiteside turns it around, but I think it is unlikely both do. Ward and Fulgham have proven to be competent NFL receivers, but really nothing more. Whether the team decides to keep Jalen Hurts as the starting quarterback in 2021 or draft a rookie for the second straight draft, the team needs to upgrade their WR room and could do so with rookie wide receivers.

The New England Patriots

All of the teams below the Saints up until this point are very similar situations. They badly need receiver help and offer rookie wide receivers a very good chance to crack the starting lineup, but they will be handicapped early due to uncertainty at the quarterback position. The Patriots are no different. I have absolutely no idea at this point who will be the starter in New England in 2021. I do know, though, that the Patriots have more coaching stability than many of the teams on this list. The Patriots offense struggled in 2020, but given the team’s track record I can’t see them playing that bad again in 2021. I doubt the Patriots become an explosive offense, but I don’t think Bill Belichick will let the offense drag down the team again.

The Patriots are also like the Eagles in the way that they have invested near the top of the draft at the wide receiver recently, yet they are being led in productivity by veterans and former undrafted free agents. The Patriots were led by 2019 UDFA Jakobi Meyers in receiving in 2020. 2015 UDFA Damiere Byrd followed him in receiving yards. Veterans James White and Julian Edelman were next up. James White will likely enter free agency and Edelman will turn 35 before the season begins. Both of them are near the end of their respective Patriot careers. Byrd will also have a chance to enter free agency. This could open up a role for 2019 first-round pick N’Keal Harry to finally produce. Given that the team has been playing a UDFA from the same class over him I don’t think that they are committed to him anymore, though.

Jakobi Meyers, Julian Edelman, and N’Keal Harry do appear to be the team’s top three wideouts on their roster as of now. That group leaves a lot to be desired, which is why regardless of the quarterback I think that investing in the position could be valuable.

The Tennessee Titans

Finally, a good offense. The Titans are here under the assumption that former fifth overall pick Corey Davis leaves the team in free agency. The Titans declined Davis’ fifth-year option last offseason, and GM Jon Robinson said he took it well. He may have used it as motivation because he followed it up with his best season in the NFL. Davis finished just 16 yards under 1,000 in 2020. He will likely be one of the most sought-after wide receivers in free agency if he makes it to the open market. Unless the Titans re-sign him early, I doubt he returns. If he leaves, the Titans will need to add new faces to their WR corps.

A.J. Brown will be the team’s WR1 no matter what happens. With Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Anthony Firkser all scheduled to become free agents there are plenty of available targets leftover after Brown. Adam Humphries was also let go this past week. If all of the aforementioned players leave, Brown and Derrick Henry will be the only two Titans left with more than 20 targets in 2020. Sure, the team primarily operates through the run. Because of the run, though, the passing offense is incredibly efficient. In 2020 quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw for 33 touchdowns in the offense, as well as throwing for over 3,800 yards. Assuming that at least some of the aforementioned free agents leave this offseason, the Titans will be a fantastic landing spot for rookie wide receivers.

Enjoy this content? Check out other Belly Up Fantasy Football Posts here. Also, follow my Twitter @lheureuxadam for more fantasy football and general football content from me.