Sunday, May 19, 2024

Fantasy Football

AFC Divisional Round Sunday Early Game Preview

It’s the Divisional Round! We’re halfway to the NFL’s “Final Four”. Belly Up Fantasy is still going strong, with rankings for each round, as well as preview articles for each game. The AFC Divisional Round Sunday early game will see the Buffalo Bills host the Bengals in what promises to be an emotional game on several levels. The game airs on CBS at 3:00 pm EST this Sunday, January 22.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. DFS values are DraftKings Classic ranks. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

AFC Divisional Round Sunday Game Preview: Bengals’ Offense

It would be a big boost to the Bengals’ chances if Joe Mixon could run wild on the Bills.

The Cincinnati Bengals came out on the short end of the administrative fallout from the Damar Hamlin situation, as they were denied the opportunity to improve on being the AFC’s number three seed. Be that as it may, the Bengals have done nothing but take care of business against the rival Ravens twice in the past two weeks to advance to the AFC Divisional Round Sunday game. No time to lament what might have been, as like it or not, the Bengals are in Buffalo with a tall task in front of them.

The Bengals’ offensive numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt this season, as their season totals obviously are coming from only 16 games as opposed to the 17 everyone else (except the Bills) has to draw on. Nevertheless, the Bengals look like one of the league’s most explosive units for years to come, with a talented young core most teams (and fantasy managers) would do just about anything to have. Joe Burrow looked even better another year removed from the injury that cost him the final third of his rookie campaign. They’ll need all the Burrow they can get if they hope to face the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game for a shot at a return Super Bowl trip.

DFS Outlook

It was admittedly a limited sample size, but Burrow and the Cincinnati offense looked to have the Bills on the ropes in the not-quite ten minutes that were played in Week 17. The heavy hitters from both teams figure to return value despite the difficult matchups. Burrow is my QB4 this weekend, and at $6,500 is an enticingly affordable option. You’ll be paying to pair him with top wideout Ja’Marr Chase at a position-high $7,800. But the Bills are actually an exploitable matchup for fantasy wide receivers. Chase is my WR1 option this week, although he’ll stress your budget a bit. Tee Higgins ($5,800) makes a great play for the money. The Bengals looked to have an effective game plan the first time out versus Buffalo, and underneath routes seemed to be a focus. That’s where Higgins could make some hay.

Tyler Boyd ($4,000) is a high-ceiling, low-floor option further down the rankings. I wouldn’t feel overly confident starting him, but that’s nothing new for this season with him. He still has the ability to pop, and fits in nicely for the money, especially if you’re playing Burrow as well. Hayden Hurst ($3,200) has a tough matchup, but will be running those underneath routes. That gives him some upside if you’re looking for a counter-culture play in GPP formats. I’m really not in on Joe Mixon at $6,500. He’s just been too inefficient behind a suspect offensive line. Even with other backs facing bad matchups, I like their chances over his. The Bengals’ DST ($2,400) is affordable this week for a reason. I’m steering clear of them, and you should, too.

AFC Divisional Round Sunday Game Preview: Bills’ Offense

The AFC Divisional Round Sunday game should see plenty of passing numbers for fantasy managers.

It was tougher sledding against Miami than most thought it would be for the Bills on Wild Card Weekend, but Josh Allen and company eventually did just enough to advance. While that’s the name of the game this time of year, Allen couldn’t have felt great about his three turnovers that played a huge part in keeping Miami in the game until the end. Those turnovers mitigated what was otherwise a nice fantasy stat line for Allen and limited the returns for the other Bills in your lineup last week as well.

DFS Outlook

Things don’t get any easier for Allen this week, as the Bengals surrendered the fewest half-ppr points to opposing fantasy quarterbacks this season. While he’s my QB3 this week, his $7,800 price tag means you may find better value elsewhere, but it’d take a big game from most others to match Allen’s all-around ability. If you play him, you may need to stack him with Gabriel Davis ($4,800!) and Dawson Knox ($3,800) and skip Stefon Diggs‘s high price ($7,800) in favor of spending for more clout at running back. Davis and Diggs put up very similar stat lines last week, but it was Davis who came away with the score. Expect the Bengals to try to force Allen to throw to his non-Diggs wideouts. Stefon will get his, but Davis and other options like Cole Beasley ($3,000) could be great value plays.

Devin Singletary ($5,200) hasn’t shown much lately to justify the larger cost over James Cook ($4,800). Neither saw a target in last week’s game, which limited their production significantly. Cook did find the endzone, but was less efficient overall. Both are worth a possible FLEX look, but temper your expectations for them. Cincinnati is tough on opposing fantasy running backs. The Bills’ DST is worth a look this week at $2,900. I have them as my DST3 on the week, and they could take advantage of the Bengals’ poor line play.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Bills (-3.5)

Over/Under: 52

Notable Props: Devin Singletary receptions (1.5); Dawson Knox receptions (3.3); Joe Mixon rushing yards (51.7); Joe Burrow pass yards (51.7); Ja’Marr Chase receiving yards (99.8)

Best of Luck!

Here’s hoping your playoff fantasy contests go well and you get to live the lesser dream for awhile. Remember to check Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and entertaining insight. Rankings, game previews, and betting advice will help you cash in this postseason! As always, more great NFL coverage is available on the main Belly Up site, as well as fun, informative content on the Belly Up Podcast Network. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast each week.