Can we actually believe that Spring is in the air? Yes we can as Opening Day for all Major League teams is almost seven days away on April first! There need be no worries of any April fool’s pranks on this day as baseball takes center stage. We have previously looked at the top starting pitchers, some player profiles and baseball’s top players in our ongoing fantasy series. We move on to position players for this baseball bounce back candidates in fantasy edition. Join with me, won’t you, as we dive right in!

Christian Yelich, Outfield, Milwaukee Brewers

It may be hard to believe that a player that won a Most Valuable Player Award and is a two time batting champion would be on the list. Even so, Christian Yelich leads off this baseball bounce back candidates edition. Why? It only takes the briefest of looks at his statistics from the mini season that was 2020 to indicate the reason. Yelich took a major step back last year to the tune of .205-12-22. The batting average was a significant drop from his .326 2018 and .329 2019. Both of those led the league.

What are we to make of this downturn? First, his strikeout rate (30.8) was at least 10 percentage points higher than in any of his six previous full seasons. Second, his batting average on balls in play (.259) was by far the lowest of his career. Yelich didn’t hit as many balls as he had in previous seasons and when he did, he just couldn’t get any luck. Additionally, he wasn’t stealing bases (four).

The Prospects for Yelich in 2021

The news wasn’t all bad, however. Yelich produced the highest walk rate of his career (18.6) and his OBP was .356. While that was the lowest Yelich has produced, lots of players would be thrilled with it, as would their fantasy managers. It must be remembered that this is a player that led the National League in batting, slugging, OPS and OPS+ in both 2018 and 2019. In addition, Yelich led in total bases in 2018 and in OBP in 2019. Yelich is a complete player and it would be prudent to ignore last season and expect he will return to his top form. Clearly, 2020 was the outlier and it would seem wise to disregard the those numbers. He has a second round ADP this year and any manager picking in that range should be thrilled to have him. Pull the trigger on Yelich with confidence.

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Much like Christian Yelich above, Cody Bellinger is a former National League Most Valuable Player coming off a down 2020 season. Even though Los Angeles won the World Series, they did so without a dominant season from Bellinger. His stats fell in every conceivable way in 2020- batting (.305-.239), OBP (.406-.333), slugging (.629-.455) and OPS (1.035-.789), Most interestingly, his BABIP fell from .302 to .245.

Also like Yelich, that last statistic is the key in forecasting what kind of season Bellinger will have in 2021. His BABIP was right around .300 in his first three major league seasons. It is reasonable to expect that average will return to his norm in the new year. In addition, Bellinger’s strike out (16.3-15.3) and walk rates (14.4-12.4) were virtually the same in 2019 and 2020.

The prospects for Bellinger in 2021

All of above indicates Bellinger will return to his usual ways this season. However, what would most concern any fantasy manager drafting Bellinger is the fact that he had offseason surgery. Bellinger injured his right shoulder during the World Series and had surgery to clean it up. While he was held out of early spring games, Bellinger has been in the starting lineup in recent days and homered last Thursday. That settles any injury talk. He carries a 15 ADP coming into drafts this year. A return to his MVP self on a second round ADP should make any manager want him on their roster in 2021. The fact that Bellinger qualifies at both first and the outfield is also a huge plus. The recommendation is to draft away.

Pete Alonso, First Base, New York Mets

No question the shortened 2020 season was not kind to Pete Alonso. Just like the players above, Alonso saw his stats fall across the board last season- batting (.260-.231), OBP (.358-.326), slugging (.583-.490) and OPS (.941-.817). Just like the two above, not coincidentally, his BABIP fell from .280 to .242. It is interesting to note, however, that Alonso’s strikeout (26.4-25.5) and walk ratios (10.4-10.0) were almost the same in 2020 as they were his first year.

Realistically, there are only a certain number of players that can provide 40 or more home runs to a fantasy manager. Without question, Alonso is one of them. There is every reason to expect Alonso will come close to his rookie season output. He may not hit 50 homers and drive in 120 runs again, but 40 and 100 would look quite exquisite on any roster. That is especially true with his current ADP of 51. At that rate, hit the draft button, smile with satisfaction, and don’t look back. Alonso is certainly one of the true fantasy baseball bounce back candidates for this season.

Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, New York Yankees

Unlike the players above, Gleyber Torres not only had a down season in 2020, but had issues with nagging injuries as well. Torres dealt with strains to his quad and hamstring. Whether those injuries led to his disastrous year is open to conjecture, but they sure didn’t help. Torres finished the mini season batting .243 with just three homers,16 RBIs and a single stolen base. Not exactly a world beater, was he?

The good news, though, is that Torres did bounce back some in September and October with an OPS of .842. In addition, Torres has a track record of success, hitting .271 and .278 with an OBP of .340 and .337 his first two seasons, His hard hit percentage (38.3) was right in line with his career average.

However, the best news is that Torres has no health concerns entering the 2021 season. It isn’t a stretch to think he will come close, if not meet, 30 homers and 90+ RBIs. A player that hits like that and qualifies at both second and short with a 60 ADP would look awfully good on anyone’s roster.

Eugenio Suarez, Third Base, Cincinnati Reds

It might be surprising to some that Eugenio Suarez is included in this baseball bounce back candidates edition. Suarez did hit 15 homers in 2020 after all, which was tied for ninth in the National League. However, just glance at Suarez’ other stats and it becomes clear why he is listed here. His batting average plunged to a barely conscious .202. Further, his other stats, OBP (.312), slugging (.470) and OPS (.781) were also significantly down from previous seasons.

What was the main culprit for this steep plunge? As with so many other players in 2020, the balls just weren’t falling in for Suarez. His BABIP was an absurd .212. His career mark is almost a hundred points higher at .310. This indicates that Suarez should return to hit around .264. While it is conceded that isn’t great, it certainly isn’t terrible.

Suarez is completely capable of 40 homers and over 200 runs plus RBIs. Considering the fact that Suarez looks to be Cincinnati’s shortstop this season, he would be a steal at his current 64 ADP. Go get him and don’t be afraid to reach a bit if necessary.

Thanks all for joining me for fantasy baseball bounce back candidates edition! As always, I welcome input and suggestions from all of my readers. Let me know how your rankings differ from mine. Follow me on twitter @kevin62wilsea, and be sure to turn to Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports and Picks for all the latest MLB and sports news!