Saturday, April 27, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

Be Wary of Breakout TEs

People often consider tight end the wasteland of fantasy positions. With very few elite options and a bunch of mediocre ones, finding a positional advantage here is tough. Travis Kelce has been the main constant over the past few years. It’s gotten to the point where everyone is trying to find “the next Travis Kelce”. Candidates nowadays include Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, and Trey McBride. People get to confident they’ll be able to find such a player, but I want to remind people how difficult it is. Many tight ends have great years then fade into irrelevancy. Be wary of breakout TEs.

Past “Breakouts”

2022: Pat Freiermuth: TE7 // Thought to have been a 2nd-year breakout, he’s not bad, but not the top option people projected he’d be this year.

2021: Kyle Pitts: TE6 // He became a 1st round startup pick in dynasty superflex drafts. The hype clearly got out of hand as he hasn’t been reliably startable since that rookie season (and he wasn’t even consistent then).

2020: Noah Fant: TE8 // He was a highly touted prospect and had a pretty good second season in Denver. But he hasn’t been a solid fantasy starter since.

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – DECEMBER 05: Kyle Pitts #8 of the Atlanta Falcons carries the ball after a reception during the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 05, 2021 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Wrap-Up

You might also remember Greg Dulcich and Chigoziem Okonkwo being recently hyped names who have faded since. The idea of finding the next golden goose at TE is very appealing but it’s more often than not, a fool’s errand. I’m not saying it’s impossible that LaPorta, Kincaid, and McBride reach Kelce’s level or that they’ll be irrelevant soon. But I wouldn’t expect it and would caution you on such optimism, and with that, spending with such optimism in mind. You don’t want to make the same mistake Kyle Pitts managers made. Be wary of breakout TEs.

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