Lamar Jackson was a fantasy MVP in 2019, and the hype train on him has hit full steam. He has an ADP of 20.1 and is ranked as the QB2 in redraft leagues. Some of us are high on him, some are low, so let’s do a Belly Up Throwdown to find out why.

• 2019 Passing: 3127 yards, 36 TD, 6 INT
• 2019 Rushing: 176 ATT, 1206 yards, 7 TD
• 2019 Fantasy Points: 416 points
• 2020 ADP: 20.1*

Jacob: Are you ready to throw down?

Ryan: Let’s go!

Jacob: At first glance, I thought I might be the one taking the harder side of this Throwdown. I mean, how can the best QB in 2019 be a good value pick heading into 2020? Well, Ryan, it took me all of three minutes to realize you’re screwed.

With an ADP of 20.1, most people have Lamar Jackson slated to go in the back end of the 2^nd round. Realistically, he is a good value pick at the beginning of the second round. Hell, if you think that someone is going to snatch him up, I wouldn’t have a problem with someone taking him at the end of the first before the snake around.

Ryan: In more than one way, Lamar Jackson is being overvalued in 2020. Firstly, his status as QB2 is off to me. Secondly, and directly tied to that, I believe his ADP is inflated because of his QB2 ranking. In his MVP breakout campaign, he only threw for 3,127 yards. He had a nine percent TD percentage, which is anomalously high. 36 passing TDs won’t be happening in 2020. He also ran the ball 176 times, for 1,206 yards rushing. That is putting RB miles on his QB body. He will not be able to hold up. Real injury concerns loom large. And if Harbaugh is smart, he will rely less on Jackson’s legs in 2020. He should be a threat out of the backfield, rather than a featured RB. I highly doubt he replicates his rushing numbers from 2020.

Jacob: I’m going to make a concession. (This is a BIG deal!) His TD percentage was so high, that I’m not sure it can be replicated. Luckily, you brought up all the factors that are going to lead to him still producing TD’s at an elite level.

Let’s start with your concern he’s taking on too many carries, and they are going to be reduced. He would still be rushing for 1,000 yards again with a 20 percent reduction in carries, so fantasy owners will still be reaping the rewards of his running ability even with a reduced workload. Also, he’s about to go into his second full year as a starter. Let’s not act like he is a 30-year-old running back who’s beat to crap. With a reduction in carries, He’s going to be passing more often. While it may not lead to the same TD percentage, Lamar is going to throw for more than 3,127 yards, and near the same level of TD’s, if not more.

Ryan: Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that he sees a 20 percent decrease on the ground, in all stats. So let’s say he rushes for 1,000 yards and 6 TDs. I think I can acknowledge that his rushing statistics are going to be elite positionally; second to none. But he just lost 26 fantasy points, and I think a 20 percent reduction is still too many rush touches if you want to keep your franchise QB for more than three years.

Also, let’s assume he throws 436 passes if every rush attempt he would have had is converted to passing attempts. He actually regressed in yards gained per pass completion from his rookie year, from 12.1 to 11.8. So let’s assume 12 yards per completion, at last year’s solid 66.1 percent completion percentage. That is 288 passes completed. His TD rate drops to a normal five percent. That is roughly 22 TDs and 3,456 yards passing. He loses 44 points, making the difference between him and the other elite QBs nominal. Mahomes will outscore him in 2020 if healthy.

So if you wanna waste an early pick on a QB who is going to produce similar numbers to the five guys taken after him, I would call it unwise. That is if he only sees a 20 percent reduction in rushing. Also if his completion percentage holds. And Baltimore will not be playing from behind much, so there’s that.

Jacob: Your first point of losing 26 points is really interesting. If he lost 26 points off of last season’s point total, he still would have been the highest-scoring QB… by 47 points. Also, franchises are focused on winning Super Bowls when they can, with young QBs on rookie contracts. The Ravens are going to use him in any way that gets them as far as possible. Now, starting with your numbers. Your main argument is based on Lamar Jackson making a regression to the mean on his TD percentage. I was in a giving mood, but you’re ridiculous to think that Lamar Jackson is going to regress to a normal five percent. Let’s meet in the middle with seven percent, which gives him 30 TDs. With his increase in passing yards, he is still firmly in the QB1 spot at 394 points.

Also, Baltimore wasn’t playing from behind last year and he still put up numbers, so I’m not sure that point holds. I’ll agree that his season point total will naturally take a small dip, but it is not as drastic as you’re trying to make it out be.

Another factor that makes him so valuable is his week-to-week consistency. After all, fantasy is about winning a weekly game and totaling those weekly games up. Last year, Lamar Jackson had two games below 20 points, and one of them was 19.1 points. That means that nearly every week, Lamar Jackson was, at the very least, giving fantasy owners a chance to win their matchup. In most weeks, he was the primary reason for a win.

Ryan: I think Jackson caught lightning in a bottle in 2019. Defenses will be approaching how they play Baltimore differently in 2020. Of course, Jackson has a crazy high ceiling. I just think the chances of him actually reaching that ceiling are not good. I am not calling anyone crazy for taking him as QB2, but I like other guys at 20 more than him. It also helps that I believe value at QB is readily available later.

Jacob: We learned in 2019 that his ceiling is the best fantasy QB in the league, providing a seven point advantage every week against the second highest-scoring QB. His floor is 20 points a week, still providing an advantage against an average QB. Getting a 5-10 point advantage every week at QB is worthy of a late first or early second-round draft pick.

We both agree Lamar Jackson is an excellent fantasy option, but his price point is where we don’t agree. Who won this Throwdown? Comment below, or hit us up on Twitter. Follow @BellyUpFantasy for all our content. Follow Jacob @JHarrington020, follow Ryan @realryanhicks to stay up to date on all our upcoming content. Stay tuned for our next Belly Up Throwdown!