Saturday, May 04, 2024

Fantasy Football

The A.J. Brown Breakout is Still to Come

Titans Wide Receiver A.J. Brown exploded in the latter half of the 2019 season. But he is not done breaking out, and 2020 is going to be a good year for him and the Titans offense. Welcome to the real A.J. Brown breakout.

1,111 scrimmage yards and 9 total TDs are excellent numbers for a WR in his first year. A.J. Brown was phenomenal in 2019, garnering late buzz for Rookie of the Year. He torched defenses, especially after the QB change from Mariota to Ryan Tannehill. As the 2020 season approaches, I am going to make the case that not only will Brown be better in 2020, but he will wind up as a top 3 WR in fantasy scoring. You can call it a hot take, I call it Thanos-level inevitable. I have gone over how I feel about the Titans in my Ceilings and Floors series, but I want to get deeper on Brown, and why I think he will be the best WR in the NFL sooner rather than later.

Ridiculous Stats on Limited Touches

A.J. Brown had an absolutely insane 20.2 yards per touch in 2019, which lead the NFL in that category. Despite only getting 55 touches all year, he managed to put up amazing numbers. He scored once every 6.11 touches, and should only see his touches increase in 2020, I suspect by an enormous margin. If he is able to even come close to his 20.2 Y/Tch, 55:9 Tch:TD ratios, on 100 touches, you can do the math and see. That is a preposterously productive season. And I think 100 touches is absolutely attainable in 2020.

The guy is just so dynamic with the ball in his hands. Rarely does the first tackler bring him down, and if he has space, he creates in ways other WRs only wish they could. His vision is outstanding, he has superb body-control, including amazing sideline awareness with his feet. These things won’t go away with more touches.

Developing Chemistry

Before Tannehill took over as the starter in week 6, A.J. Brown had 2 TDs and 250 yards. Tannehill started the next 11 games, and that is when Brown began really taking off. 861 total yards and 7 total TDs in 11 weeks. Extrapolate that to 16 games, and he finishes with 1,252 yards, and 10 TDs. As a rookie. With a QB who just joined the team and had yet to develop much chemistry with his star rookie WR. Add another year in the same offense under second-year OC Arthur Smith.

Another year of Tannehill and Brown getting more comfortable with each other. Another year of development. Improvement seems inevitable. Brown should have an even better grasp of the playbook next year and will be utilized in more ways than he was before. Titans HC Mike Vrabel expects to see an improved version of Brown in 2020, and so do I.

Excellent Situation

A.J. Brown’s situation is another thing going for him heading into 2020. He has the same HC, OC, and WR coach as he did last year, along with the same playbook and the same QB. He also has Derrick Henry. Henry is going to force opposing defenses to respect the run, and perhaps even sell-out to stop it. This should leave Brown with his big-play ability ample room to operate in the secondary. Jonnu Smith is a name a lot of people are talking about as far as breakouts go, and he should give the Titans a viable weapon at TE. The threat of the run along with the continued development of Smith should keep the field wide open for Brown to make big-play after big-play.

Learning and Leadership

These two quotes from Brown highlight some of what I like the most about him.

“I think the sky is the limit for me to be honest. I’m a great learner and I’m going to keep learning each and every day. That’s the biggest thing to my game, I’m a huge learner. Definitely a lot of things I can clean up,” Brown reflected on his rookie year. “Year one I was just trying to play fast and not think about it too much, but year two I can really just key in and focus on what I really need to focus on, and learn a lot more stuff in regards to coverages and everything else.”

Sports Illustrated

A.J. Brown could have basked in his rookie year accomplishments, saying I told you so to naysayers and doubters. Instead, he is already focusing on improving in year two. And his claim that learning is the biggest part of his game? That is a coach’s dream.

“I think I’m a natural-born leader. As a rookie, I didn’t really come in and say too much. I just had to come in and show everyone that I’m a hard worker myself and hold myself accountable. Now that I have some of my teammates’ respect I can start holding other people accountable too. I’m looking forward to this upcoming season, a big leadership role for me. Bringing up the rookies and everything, so yeah, I’m really excited for that.

Sports Illustrated

Speaking of coach’s dreams, A.J. Brown wants to take on more of a leadership role. While this may not impact his fantasy output in any real way, it is excellent to see Brown stepping up in multiple ways, suggesting the future is bright in Tennessee.

I am doing everything I can to increase my shares of A.J. Brown in every format, but especially in dynasty. I recommend you do the same, before his real breakout happens, and you can no longer afford his services.

Enjoy this article? Follow me @realryanhicks to see all my content, and follow @BellyUpFantasy for all your fantasy news. Think I’m right or wrong about A.J. Brown? Leave me a comment, I love talking football. Thanks for reading.