Hey everyone, Belly Up Fantasy Sports is hosting a weekly mock draft on sleeper! Jacob Harrington, Nate Herman, and Travis Sumpter will be teaming up to give you our analysis on some of the players we chose in the mock draft. We will also be analyzing our guest’s picks each week. This week’s mock draft guest was Aaron Schill, who is the lead dynasty analyst for Gridiron Experts, a fantasy football writer for FantasyPros, and RotoBaller, and the Co-Founder of The Dynasty Draft Room!

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Introduction

Jacob:

To me, fantasy football is the perfect mix of numbers, strategy, intuition, and most importantly, fun. I’m new to the fantasy community, but fantasy football has been a part of my life since I was 16. Most of my experience is from auction leagues, and how to use different strategies to build a team during an auction. I’m excited to join Belly Up Sports and see how this upcoming season unfolds!

Nate:

Hey everyone, my name is Nate Herman, and I’m thrilled to be covering Belly Up Fantasy Sports mock drafts. I hope that our analysis on the players we drafted, gives you valuable information when it’s time for you to draft. To a lot of people, fantasy football isn’t just a game. It’s a lifestyle. Building the perfect team doesn’t just mean sitting down for an hour or two during the draft, but it means doing research all year round. The fact that the majority of fantasy football takes place over one day a week, gives the owner no room for error. Fantasy football is the perfect balance between fun and intensity.

Travis:

Hello everyone, my name is Travis Sumpter, and I am a big fantasy enthusiast here at Belly Up Fantasy. I love all things fantasy football. I want to give you my best analysis of what goes on in my head before I make my pick.

If there’s one piece of advice I can give you championships are not won on draft day, but you can lose any chance you had on draft day if your team isn’t built properly.

Analysis On Our First Three Picks

Jacob:

With an ADP of five, most people would consider drafting Alvin Kamara with the 1.02 a reach. However, the first round is the only crack you get at a top RB, so I was going to get the guy that I wanted. I’m expecting a return to the 2018 Alvin Kamara, where he averaged 23.2 points per game in PPR format, good for the fourth-best RB. I’ll have more content coming soon on why I’m very high on Alvin Kamara this year.

I came into the draft with the mindset that I was going to test the two monster RB strategy, and getting the 2.11 was going to provide valuable insight on who was going to be available. Boy, I got played. I had my eyes set on creating a PPR dream duo with Austin Ekeler, but Houston had to mess everything up by taking him with the pick before. At this point, I panicked after watching the top WR’s all go and took Amari Cooper. I was afraid that getting going for a decent RB2 was significantly going to hamper my ability to get a serviceable WR1. Learning experience.

My next pick, the 3.02, gave me another chance to test a different strategy. I typically pass on the top quarterbacks and wait to use a less valuable pick on an average quarterback that won’t make or break me. Instead, I wanted to see what the rest of my roster would look like if I were to go for a top tier QB. This was my only chance with Patrick Mahomes going off the board the pick before. Last year, Lamar Jackson was the best scoring QB by a significant margin. Even with a small regression to the mean, I would have a tier-one QB.

Nate:

In BUFS first weekly mock draft, I was given the 1.05. With CMC, Kamara, Barkley, and Henry off the board, I had a tough decision to make.  Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Michael Thomas were the three guys I had in mind. As a Giants fan, I couldn’t draft Elliott. Most fantasy owners have a few guys who they will never draft, and Zeke is one of those guys for me. As my list was diminished to two, I had to decide between an RB and WR.

The WR position is very deep, therefore I knew I could hold off on Thomas, and get decent WRs later. The main concern that I and most fantasy football players have with Cook is his health. However, after playing in 14 games last season, I’m more optimistic about Cook’s health.  In a deeper league, I would have gone with Michael Thomas, but knowing that I could get some solid WR in later rounds was what made me go with Dalvin Cook at the 1.05.

My next pick, which was the 2.08, was a tough one. Most of the WRs on the board I thought were a reach at the 2.08. Kenny Golladay, who I’m very high on this season, was the one receiver I was considering drafting. Along with Golladay, I had my eye on Travis Kelce. I know a lot of fantasy owners like to wait until later in the draft to pick up their TE, but Kelce is special. In the last four season, Kelce has recorded over 1000 yards receiving, while only missing one game. Kelce is the definition of consistency, and with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the pigskin, Kelce may have better seasons in store. 

I was going back and forth between Kelce and Golladay for about a minute and then I pulled the trigger on Travis Kelce. The reason being the same reason I took Cook over Thomas in round one. The WR position is very deep. According to Fantasypros, T.Y. Hilton is the WR23 for half PPR leagues. Therefore, if each team in the draft picked two receivers before I picked one, I would end up with Hilton. I understand that WRs aren’t picked in the exact order of their ranking, but assuming they were Keenan Allen would be mine. For that reason, along with his elite status, I drafted Travis Kelce with the 2.08.

My third selection, the 3.05, was right around the corner. When it was my pick, Kenny Golladay was still on the board. Along with Golladay, I had my eye on Leonard Fournette. Although Fournette only found the endzone three times last season, he still rushed for more than 1100 yards. Fournette is 6’0” 228 lbs, which makes his lack of TDs even odder. Fournette is a bowling bowl. If the Jaguars are inside the five, he should be able to plow himself into the endzone. I honestly think last year’s lack of TDs was a fluke. In 2018-19, Fournette only played in eight games but rushed for two more TDs than he did in 2019-20. Fournette may be an RB2 going into this season, but I think he has RB1 upside.

 Kenny Golladay is a great receiver, but repeating his 11 TDs from last season seems very unlikely. If Hockenson and Johnson can stay healthy, they will get their fair share of TDs. Something that Golladay and Fournette have in common is that they are entering the final year of their contract. If they want to get paid top dollar, they gotta prove it this year. This should give both players extra motivation. Drafting Kelce in the previous round helped me make this choice. Golladay is a great receiver but having two workhouses in the backfield was the way I decided to go. Having Cook and Fournette guarantees me 30-40 carries a week, if healthy, which should provide consistency each week.

Travis:

So starting with my pick, the 1.11, my thought process when drafting late is how do I extract the most value out of this draft that I am given. So with the 1.11 I quickly snagged Davante Adams up off the board. If there was ever a guy that could lead the NFL this year in most receptions besides Mike Thomas it would be Adams. He has the kind of ceiling you want out of a first-round WR. I traditionally do not go receiver this early but by the time I got to my pick the true running back studs were scooped up.

The two next picks, the 1.12 and 2.01, Josh Jacobs and Tyreek Hill were off the board. I knew I was gambling because if he went RB-RB I would have missed out on a top tier RB. I knew on the way back I wanted Kenyan Drake or Josh Jacobs. Luckily for me, only one was taken; otherwise, I would have shifted to a WR-WR approach and drafted Julio Jones at the 2.02. I got what I wanted at the 2.02. I scooped up Kenyan Drake and didn’t even blink an eye about it. One of my favorite strategies is to take that high upside guy who can give me a huge return on my investment. Drake has a chance to finish as a top-three RB in that high powered Cardinal offense.

This brings me to my pick at the 3.11. I took Odell Beckham Jr. Yes, the same Odell Beckham that let many fantasy owners down last year. What else are you going to do? Not draft that kind of receiver who could very well bounce back and be a top dog once again.

Schill:

Schill had to be thrilled that Ezekiel Elliot fell to the sixth pick. Although his ADP is 8.6, this is both good value and a safe pick. Zeke is guaranteed 20 touches a game. In what most people considered a slow year for him, Zeke was the third-highest scoring running back in PPR, and fourth in standard scoring. With Mike McCarthy and his new staff, I expect Zeke to get used in more creative ways than He Who Shall Not Be Named. 

At the 2.06, Schill pulled the trigger on Chris Godwin. Last season, Godwin broke out. In 14 games, Godwin recorded more than 1300 yards receiving and nine TDs. While Godwin may not put up these numbers again, he is in store for another great season. There has been lots of debate on whether Evans or Godwin will have the better year. Only time will answer that question, but it’s hard to go wrong with either Evans or Godwin. Schill’s first two picks feature guys on some of the best offenses in the NFL, which for Schill, hopefully, means lots of fantasy points.

So after Schill started with the powerful one-two punch of “Zeke the Freak” Ezekiel Elliott and his main man Chris “God I always Win” Godwin. He followed that up with another stud wide receiver. Kenny Golladay at the 3.06. What a strong foundation to have after drafting from the sixth spot in this mock. He gets an A from my perspective from the sheer value that he extracted at his draft position. Elliott’s ADP is currently sitting at the eighth or ninth pick in the draft, but Schill got a vert talented RB. A+ from me when you get your stud running back a little later than expected. Godwin’s current ADP is sitting at the 2.06 and Aaron scoops him up immediately with that same pick. Which is great that he did not have to reach for him at all earlier in the draft.

Analysis On Our Last Three Picks

Jacob:

 My rainy day fund of running backs began with Old Faithful. Adrian Peterson had seven games last year of double-digit points. He will almost certainly find a week or two next season where he is a must-start.

As Ryan Hicks mentioned in his Ceilings and Floors for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jaylen Samuels underwhelmed last season when filling in for James Conner. I find it tough to put all the blame for that on him, as defenses were gearing up for the run knowing that the backup QB’s were not a threat. Still, this pick has no value unless James Conner misses games.

Gus Edwards has had back-to-back 700 plus yard seasons, but with the introduction of J.K. Dobbins, he doesn’t appear to have much value. The only time we’ll see significant touches from Gus Edwards is if Mark Ingram goes down.

Nate:

 Depth is a key part of fantasy football. If one of your starters goes down, having a decent backup could save your season. At the 14.05, I picked Hunter Renfrow. For the majority of the season, Renfrow didn’t have much fantasy relevance, but in the last two weeks, he came alive. In weeks 15 and 16 combined, Renfrow recorded 13 receptions, 209 yards, and two TDs. Derek Carr and Hunter Renfrow look to build off those two games going into this season. If Renfrow can continue his success from late last season, he could be one of the best value picks in the draft.

At the 15.05, I decided to draft Ito Smith. Nobody knows how Todd Gurley’s knee is going to hold up. If Gurley goes down, Smith is next in line. I also see Smith getting opportunities to catch passes out of the backfield. Smith was more of a handcuff pick, but he very well may get the starting job for a few games, if Gurley gets injured.

My last pick of the draft was Ryan Tannehill. Whenever a team sees the Titans on their schedule, they are going to gameplan to stop Derrick Henry. While Henry will be getting lots of touches, Tannehill can still be a solid fantasy QB. The play-action can be very effective for the Titans this season. If opponents are going to commit stopping the run, Tannehill should get a good amount of chances to sling the ball deep.

Travis:

 I like to stack up some of those low-key breakout potential studs that can win you a fantasy championship down the stretch. I drafted Joe Burrow at the 14.02. Burrow is a guy who could very well finish as a QB1 by seasons end.

At the 15.11 I grabbed up Antonio Gandy-Golden. Antonio is a big-bodied receiver with great hands and can be considered a red zone threat for Washington. The Redskins lack of TEs could mean they use Gandy-Golden near the goal line, which gives Gandy-Golden fantasy value.

My last pick, the 16.02, I grabbed Laviska Shenault Jr. To be completely honest, he is nothing more than a flyer for me at this point. He had core muscle surgery and might start the season on the PUP list. One thing I love about him though is that he reminds me of this new mold of receiver we’ve been seeing lately. That thick, hard to tackle, no-nonsense kind of receiver, similar to Deebo Samuel.

Schill:

With the 14.07, Schill took a flyer on Tee Higgins. He is an undeniable talent who produced at the highest level in college. Combine that with the excitement that Joe Burrow is bringing, and it is not hard to get excited about what Cincinnati is building on the offensive side. The hard part for me here is that the Bengals already have an established receiving core. The return of A.J. Green and the consistency of Tyler Boyd gives Joe Burrow two established receivers that he can trust. Tee Higgins is going to be a stud in this league, but it may take some time for that to come to fruition. With all of that said, this pick is harmless, and could potentially turn out to fruitful if a receiver or two goes down.

At the 15.06, Schill took rookie RB Joshua Kelley. Although Kelley is the RB3 on the Chargers, if either Ekeler or Jackson gets injured, Kelley should see some playing time. This is a great low-risk pick from Schill. If Ekeler and/or Jackson goes down, Jackson should get his fair share of snaps. If everyone stays healthy, Schill can look to the waiver wire for another RB.

Towards the tail end of the draft is where it gets really interesting. Not only did Schill build a strong foundation, but he continued to put brick on brick making it a beautiful house that even Bill Belichick himself would be most proud of. At the end of the draft, he scooped up Jerick McKinnon. with the 16.07.

This is what fantasy owners should be doing towards the end of the draft; taking shots on those guys that can help you win championships. Whether it’s injuries, outperforming their counterpart, or just by sheer luck, McKinnon has shown in the past to be pretty valuable to an offense. If he can get back into form and make an impact with the 49ers, maybe he unseats Mostert down the stretch, if anyone gets injured. It’s not out of reason to think McKinnon can still have some big weeks with Kyle Shanahan running the offense. Shanahan likes to keep opposing defenses guessing by throwing as many different sets of running backs at them.

Conclusion

Jacob:

I’ll be taking part in an upcoming series on positional breakdowns for fantasy with other members of the Belly Up staff. Follow me on Twitter @JHarrington020 and let me know what you think. Also, check out what else Belly Up Fantasy is working on and follow @BellyUpFantasy for all your Fantasy Sports needs.

Nate:

If you liked what you read, make sure to follow me on twitter @NateHerman27. Be sure to stay on the lookout for Belly Up Mock Draft Mania Volume Two! And while you’re at it make sure to head to Belly Up Fantasy Sports and Belly Up Sports for more great reads!

Travis:

I will be taking part in mock drafts whenever and wherever I can. Follow me on Twitter @tjsumpter55. If you need help, advice, or just want to exchange laughs I’m all game. Stay on the lookout for some more of my work coming out soon! At Belly Up Fantasy, we are committed to helping others achieve greatness 🏆