Saturday, May 18, 2024

Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Draft Risers

There is nothing like fantasy football draft risers to help save a season. In previous episodes, we looked at the first round of a fantasy football draft, value plays, and busts. Now we move to those first or second-year players that are on the fast track to huge seasons. Often, these guys are under the cover of darkness and shining a light on them can propel you to the heights of fantasy football.

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

One of the true fantasy football risers coming into the 2020 season has to be D’Andre Swift.  The former University of Georgia running back was selected by the Lions in the second round of April’s draft.  Of all the runners picked in this year’s draft, Swift has one of the clearest paths to a starting job.  All that is ahead of him is Kerryon Johnson.  As one of the fantasy owners that picked Johnson last season, I can personally vouch to how disastrous a season he had in 2019. Johnson played in all eight games, starting seven.  He was injured for much of the season and only wound up with 403 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns.  He has played in only 18 total games in two seasons. 

No one is putting a lot of stock in him, not even the Lions.  That opens a lane for Swift to simply push Johnson aside and claim the starting berth.  The solidly built 218 pound back rushed for 1,218 yards and 7 TDs in his last season at Georgia.  He is not a pass catcher, having just 73 receptions in three years.  But, then, neither is Johnson, so that’s a wash.  Later in the draft is where the gambling should be done and there is no better way to gamble than on a player that could turn out to be an RB1.  If Swift looks good in the preseason, jump before your fellow owners do. You’ll be pleased and tempted to offer me a reward. I won’t turn it down.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay, Running Back

Another Southeastern Conference alum, Ke’Shawn Vaughn was drafted in the third round out of Vanderbilt by the Bucs. He comes to Tampa having posted the third-best yards after contact of all rookie running backs in 2019. At 5’10” and 214 pounds, he is a fast runner that doesn’t shy away from defenders. He rushed for 2,272 yards and scored 21 touchdowns the past two years. He also averaged 7.9 and 5.2 yards per carry. Those are impressive numbers, especially in the tough SEC.

Much like Swift, Vaughn enters training camp with a less than impressive player in front of him. Ronald Jones II played in all 16 games and rushed for 724 yards and scored 6 touchdowns. He enters a make or break third season. Entering the preseason, Jones might have the lead for the starting position, but it isn’t much of one. At the very least, Vaughn will be the backup and should see plenty of playing time. This is the player you want to take a chance on later in the draft, especially if he takes over the lead going into the season. If that happens and you draft him, you’ll be smiling much of the time.

Wide Receivers

Darius Slayton, New York Giants

Darius Slayton goes from fifth-rounder to Giants' 'can't miss ...

Without a doubt, Darius Slayton enters his sophomore season with the chance to really move up the Giant’s receiving hierarchy. He caught 48 passes for 740 yards and 8 TDs a year ago. 740 yards may not sound like much, but that total easily led the team. Most impressively, he averaged 15.4 yards a catch. There were six games in which he was targeted at least seven times. Included in that was a stunning 15 target game against the Jets.

If Slayton and fellow second-year quarterback Daniel Jones grow together and further develop chemistry, the sky is the limit. There are challenges for targets on the Giant’s roster in Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate. But Shepard and Tate both prefer the slot, which limits their upside and gives the rest of the field to Slayton. There is no question that Slayton is one of the fantasy football draft risers. Go get him!

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

JJets” ✈️✈️✈️ || LSU WR Justin Jefferson 2019 Highlights ...

Another first-year player full of potential is Justin Jefferson. The WR out of LSU was selected by the Vikings with the 22nd pick in the first round. He should be in a position to take the majority of the targets left behind by the departed Stefon Diggs. He looks to be the one for the task after completing his college career with an incredible 111 catches for 1,540 yards and 18 TDs. All indications are that Jefferson will be in the slot position for Minnesota this year. That should be a huge benefit for him.

In my previous story on busts, I pointed out how the slot was such a boon for Adam Thielen. Additionally, I pointed out how far the stats fell when Thielen was taken out of the slot. Thielen caught 113 passes for 1,373 yards and 9 TDs in that position in 2018. Not saying that Jefferson will duplicate those totals, but anything close will be a home run for the person that drafts him. Trust me, you want that person to be you.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

George Kittle's Example Could Set Broncos TE Noah Fant up for ...

As a rookie, Noah Fant had a very successful season for the Broncos. Despite an unsettled quarterback situation for much of the year, Fant played in all 16 games and caught 40 passes for 562 yards and three touchdowns. His 14.1 YPC was second among all tight ends in the NFL in 2019. He stretches the field like no one else at his position.

Now that the QB situation is settled in Denver (see below), it should be all systems go for Fant. That should mean big things in both the real and fantasy worlds. If you miss out on one of the few top tight ends, don’t sweat it. Fant will deliver everything that you need. His arrow is pointing up, up up!

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

Lions place rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson on injured reserve due ...

Also a rookie last season, T.J. Hockenson had an uneven season for the Lions. Much of that wasn’t his fault, though, Quarterback Matthew Stafford was injured after an excellent start. That injury resulted in a down year for all pass catchers in Detroit, including Hockenson. He played in 12 games and caught 32 passes for 367 yards and two TDs.

Two games from last season stand out. Hockenson was targeted nine times in Week 1. That resulted in six catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. In week 12, he was targeted 11 times for 6 catches. That shows what he is capable of. In the article regarding fantasy football value plays, I talked about how Stafford is healthy right now. There is no reason to think that Stafford won’t jump right back where he left off. If so, he will take Hockenson along with him to a very solid season. He is definitely one of the fantasy football draft risers.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Former Allen QB Kyler Murray named AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

I don’t think that it is possible for there to be a more obvious riser in both the real and fantasy worlds than Kyler Murray. He is coming off a rookie season in which he threw for 3,722 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Thus, the arrow is pointing straight up for the ex-Oklahoma Sooner. It’s not just that Murray will benefit from a season of experience under his belt that will help him; It is the fact that he started every game last year. How many rookie quarterbacks can say that? Not many and none with more talent than Murray.

Now comes the best part. The Cardinals added perhaps the best wide receiver in the NFL in DeAndre Hopkins. If you don’t believe me, just ask him. That is debatable, but what isn’t is that he is by far an improvement over what Arizona had last season. His 104 or more catches will come in real handy for Murray. Also, he has Kenyan Drake for a full season, and receiver Christian Kirk is certain to be better. The entire Cardinal offense is sure to be better and Murray will be the catalysis. You can’t wait as long to draft Murray as the other players on this list, so pounce by the fifth round.

Drew Lock, Denver Broncos

Drew Lock says team's trust in him fuels his confidence

Is it possible to be a sleeper and a riser all at the same time? Checking into Drew Lock, the answer is an obvious yes. Already designated as a sleeper, Lock would be an obvious choice of the number one riser if it weren’t for Murray. He got all of the new quarterback jitters out of the way last season as he started the final five games for the Broncos. Lock completed exactly 100 out of 156 passes for 1020 yards. Also, He threw for seven touchdowns and only three interceptions.

Pretty good numbers, yes? But the above doesn’t show the most important stat of all. Denver was 4-1 with Lock as the starter. Now, there is no Joe Flacco anywhere on the roster and the starting job is all locked up, so to speak. He will have weapons to use in the Mile High City with Gordon, Lindsey, Sutton, Jeudy, and Fant in the fold, to name a few. Add it all up and it is fasten your seat belts as Lock rockets up the quarterback ladder. Without a doubt, Lock is one of the fantasy football draft risers.

Thank you for joining me with this look into the fantasy football draft risers. Please feel free to comment. I welcome your input on players to add. These selections will be updated as the season gets closer and more information becomes available. Follow me on twitter @kevin62wilsea, and make sure to turn to Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports and Picks for all the latest NFL and sports news!