Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Bengals Projections: Burrow Fever

In a world of Tiger Kings, does Joe Burrow have what it takes to wear the crown? Or will these cute cats and kittens get fed to some crazy lady’s real Tigers? In case you missed it, last week we covered the New England Patriots. This time, we are going to Cincinnati, the home of chili. And the Bengals. Pack your Pepto and follow me!

QB:

Joe Burrow: Passing: 338/507-3,950 Yds, 24 TD: 16 INT
Rushing: 70-215-2 TD: 2 FMBL
Standard: 269.5 (20)
0.5 PPR: 269.5 (20)
1 PPR: 269.5 (20)

Ryan Finley: Passing: on the cigars Burrow offers him after every game.
Rushing: to run scout team so he can hold a football.
In all formats, Finley is simply holding on to a clipboard, and listening to Burrow talk about his Natty.

Joe Burrow has arrived for the Bengals. He is going to start day one, and I expect him to perform from the outset. He will not be a Pro-Bowler year one. But Rookie of the Year is his to lose. With these weapons, the Bengals are putting him in a position to succeed. Be ready to be impressed. I like him as my second QB. And he is going to win you some games, and lose you some too. But in dynasty, this is the guy you want. Don’t overthink it. Burrow showed out last year, in what was statistically the greatest college football season of all time. His ceiling is crazy high. Enjoy watching him grow in year one.

Ryan Finley has no chance of usurping Burrow. Or seeing the field. Or signing autographs. Sorry Ryan, at least you have an awesome name bud.

RB:

Joe Mixon: Rushing: 252-1,109-8 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 51 targets, 42 catches, 359 Yds, 3 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 211.8 (10)
0.5 PPR: 232.8 (10)
1 PPR: 253.8 (13)

Gio Bernard: Rushing: 39-134 Yds
Receiving: 25 targets, 17 catches, 133 Yds, 1 FMBL
Standard: 25.7 (80)
0.5 PPR: 34.2 (77)
1 PPR: 42.7 (77)

Trayveon Williams: Rushing: 35-150-1 TD
Receiving: 38 targets, 30 catches, 282 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 55.2 (62)
0.5 PPR: 70.2 (58)
1 PPR: 85.2 (57)

Mixon has had a pretty crap situation so far in his career. Burrow should mitigate that in a big way. Plus, the receiving corps is going to force defenses to be aware of the passing game. Mixon should feast. His ability as a rusher and pass-catcher keep him elite, although the pass-catching weapons around him will slightly poo on his target share. However, he is a RB1 no doubt, and entering his age 24 season, we may see the best Mixon yet.

I am so off Gio in 2020. He looked terrible in 2019. He is 28, averaged 3.2 yards per carry in 2019, and looked like a shell of his former explosive self. Enter Trayveon Williams. Last year, he got not touches. I can’t even explain why. This guy is very explosive, he reminds me a lot of young Gio actually, and I expect him to take more and more touches from Bernard as the year goes on. He is the handcuff I want for Mixon. I may even get some exposure to him if I don’t land Mixon, as I do think by fantasy playoff time, he will be getting the RB2 touches. The guy is very talented.

In summation, don’t draft Gio, at all, in any format.

WR:

A.J. Green: Receiving: 118 targets, 71 catches, 1,029 Yds, 7 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 143.9 (20)
0.5 PPR: 179.4 (24)
1 PPR: 214.9 (25)

Tyler Boyd: Rushing: 3-25 Yds
Receiving: 112 targets, 76 catches, 904 Yds, 6 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 127.9 (34)
0.5 PPR: 165.9 (31)
1 PPR: 203.9 (29)

Tee Higgins: Receiving: 55 targets, 33 catches, 451 Yds, 3 TD: 1 FMBL
Standard: 62.1 (80)
0.5 PPR: 78.6 (82)
1 PPR: 95.1 (84)

John Ross: Rushing: 5-39 Yds
Receiving: 34 targets, 19 catches, 269 Yds, 2 TDs
Standard: 41.8 (98)
0.5 PPR: 51.3 (99)
1 PPR: 60.8 (100)

Auden Tate: Receiving: 18 targets, 11 catches, 137 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 19.7 (124)
0.5 PPR: 25.2 (125)
1 PPR: 30.7 (126)

A.J. Green is back baby. At 32, he is probably done improving, but a top 10 WR is what he was before missing all of last year. Sign me up for Green in 2020, Burrow is gonna look his way a bunch. Hell, sign me up for Boyd too. This 1-2 punch is one of the best in the league. Burrow is gonna let it fly, and those two are going to be the biggest beneficiaries of it. Green is a favorite for comeback player of the year. And Boyd continues improving. I want exposure to both.

Higgins will have his upside capped by the presence of Green and Boyd. I like his potential in dynasty formats, because Green can’t play forever. Ross is a field stretching monster, but a large target share just isn’t justifiable considering the talent around him. And Tate flashed upside last year, but there is no way he is going to get enough looks to be viable in fantasy. That being said, injuries above him in the depth chart could make him stream-worthy.

There is a ton of value here, but Green is the gem.

TE:

C.J. Uzomah: Receiving: 38 targets, 29 catches, 290 Yds, 3 TDs: 1 FMBL
Standard: 46 (32)
0.5 PPR: 60.5 (32)
1 PPR: 75 (32)

Drew Sample: Receiving: 18 targets, 10 catches, 96 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 15.6 (63)
0.5 PPR: 20.6 (64)
1 PPR: 25.6 (64)

So, these poor TEs have too many good weapons around them to be very viable in fantasy formats. Therefore, I am avoiding both. I might look at Uzomah in TE premium leagues, as trade bait, but I don’t foresee myself starting him. There just aren’t enough balls to go around. Which is exactly what she said.

I am projecting the Bengals to score 1188.2 points in 0.5 PPR formats, which is good for 24th. I want exposure to Green and Boyd, and obviously Mixon. This offense should be improved from 2019, and moving forward, Cincy should have a potent attack for years to come.

Do you have Burrow fever? Make sure to wear a mask, and keep six feet away from others. The last thing we need is another pandemic. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the Cleveland Browns.