Friday, May 17, 2024

Fantasy Football

New England Patriots Projections

The dynasty that was. The hoodie remains, but the QB is gone. How will the Patriots adjust to life without Tom? In case you missed it, last time we covered the New York Jets. Join me today as we venture into New England, the land of super bowls, and now, a superman.

QB:

Cam Newton: Passing: 293/470-3,260 Yds, 21:14 TD:INT
Rushing: 80-320-6 TD: 7 FMBL
Standard: 261.4 (23)
0.5 PPR: 261.4 (23)
1 PPR: 261.4 (23

Jarrett Stidham: Passing: Go, without collecting 200 dollars.
Rushing: To get Belichek a coffee and convince him he deserves a shot.
In all formats, he plays exactly the same, which is to say, he doesn’t.

Brian Hoyer: Passing: his valuables down to his grandchildren.
Rushing: To get home by 5 to catch Wheel of Fortune
In all formats, he is still Brian Hoyer, and he is still third string.

So, Cam is a Patriot. Who didn’t see that coming? Starting the year off with Stidham didn’t make sense to me. Cam is an instant upgrade, and while I don’t see him returning to MVP form, he adds another dimension to this offense that Stidham couldn’t. If you read my article about the Pats signing Cam, you know I think this is good for the team as far as fantasy goes. His rushing ability raises his floor higher than Stidham’s. Reminder, McDaniels drafted Tebow, in round one. He is going to utilize Cam’s mobility.

The other two offered limited upside even when starting, and Stidham gets another year minimum to grow, although I don’t really know how high his ceiling really is. Cam is going to have a huge chip on his shoulder, which should bode well for the Patriots and fantasy owners. Depending on where he is being drafted, Cam offers reasonable value as your QB2 or Superflex option. His health is a concern, but not enough for me to not look at acquiring him late.

RB:

Sony Michel: Rushing: 220-800-6 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 22 targets, 15 catches, 134 Yds
Standard: 128.4 (35)
0.5 PPR: 135.9 (39)
1 PPR: 143.4 (41)

James White: Rushing: 70-286-2 TD
Receiving: 90 targets, 65 catches, 567 Yds, 4 TD
Standard: 121.3 (37)
0.5 PPR: 153.8 (32)
1 PPR: 186.3 (28)

Brandon Bolden: Rushing:13-60-1 TD
Receiving: 5 targets, 3 catches, 28 Yds
Standard: 14.8 (93)
0.5 PPR: 16.3 (94)
1 PPR: 17.8 (94)

Rex Burkhead: Rushing: 30-127-1 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 21 targets, 14 catches, 142 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 37.9 (72)
0.5 PPR: 44.9 (72)
1 PPR: 51.9 (71)

The Cam signing helps James White. A whole lot. Cam had success dumping the ball to CMC, and White should fill that role for Cam in 2020. Michel will get the goal-line looks, but White is the superior option in any leagues that have any PPR scoring. Michel has been a relative disappointment up to this point, and I don’t foresee a breakout in year 3. However, he is serviceable as RB depth or a flex option. White offers serious upside as a low-level RB2, or high-end flex option. I expect him to see a boatload of targets, and he has proven able to produce when given those targets.

Bolden should vulture a rushing TD from these guys, as should Burkhead, further limiting the value on Michel. Let’s not forget, Neither is worthy of rostering, but both make me shy away a bit more from Michel. I have Cam rushing for 6 TDs also. As Belicheck has demonstrated in the past, he isn’t afraid of using an RBBC approach. The only guy who excites me in this backfield is White. However, I will look at Michel if his price is right, as he has been relatively consistent.

WR:

Julian Edelman: Rushing: 4-31
Receiving: 107 targets, 67 catches, 789 Yds, 5 TD: 2 FMBL
Standard: 110 (44)
0.5 PPR: 143.5 (40)
1 PPR: 177 (38)

N’Keal Harry: Receiving: 60 targets, 33 catches, 361 Yds, 3 TD
Standard: 54.1 (87)
0.5 PPR: 70.6 (87)
1 PPR: 87.1 (87)

Mohamed Sanu: Receiving: 48 targets, 28 catches, 295 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 41.5 (100)
0.5 PPR: 55.5 (98)
1 PPR: 69.5 (97)

Damiere Byrd: Receiving: 15 targets, 7 catches, 145 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 20.5 (120)
0.5 PPR: 24 (129)
1 PPR: 27.5 (130)

Marqise Lee: Receiving: 17 targets, 8 catches, 120 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 18 (128)
0.5 PPR: 22 (130)
1 PPR: 26 (133)

Jakobi Meyers: Receiving: 13 targets, 7 catches, 103 Yds
Standard: 10.3 (133)
0.5 PPR: 13.8 (133)
1 PPR: 17.3 (134)

If you are considering drafting any WR outside Edelman, just don’t. Harry could rebound from a bad rookie season, but is Cam the QB he does that with? Yikes, I don’t think so. Edelman should still see a massive target share, and his underneath style shouldn’t suffer too much from having Cam throwing him the ball. That being said, Cam is not Brady, so some regression should be expected. Edelman is also 34. Not exactly a good thing. However, his volume alone makes him worthy of a roster spot.

I am sorry, I am just having a hard time getting pumped about any of these other Patriots WRs. Want me to write about how Marqise Lee used to be decent before his injuries? I won’t. Or how Sanu was relevant once? I can’t. How about Meyers during the last preseason. Don’t fall for that. I foresee more 2 TE sets, further limiting the touches the other guys will see. This offense just isn’t one I am hyped about heading into the year. Feel free to take a chance on Harry, I don’t blame you. But I won’t be joining you.

TE:

Matt LaCosse: Receiving: 22 targets, 14 catches, 146 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 20.6 (57)
0.5 PPR: 27.6 (55)
1 PPR: 34.6 (57)

Devin Asiasi: Receiving: 30 targets, 19 catches, 275 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 39.5 ( 39)
0.5 PPR: 49 (41)
1 PPR: 58.5 (43)

Dalton Keene: Receiving: 20 targets, 13 catches, 155 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 21.5 (56)
0.5 PPR: 28 (54)
1 PPR: 34.5 (58)

Matt LaCosse is a placeholder at best. Asiasi and Keene are the future. The problem is, 2020 might not be “the future” enough. Cam does have an eye for tight ends, but will any of them receive enough targets for fantasy relevancy? I think not. With the plethora of other TEs available, I just don’t see this being a TE unit I am trying to get a lot of exposure to.

That being said, in dynasty formats, I like both of these young guys. The Patriots need to see what they have in each of them this year, but I think they landed two guys who will be contributors down the line.

Sorry Pats fans, I am predicting the Patriots score 1046.3 fantasy points in 0.5 PPR scoring formats. That is 32nd, out of 32 teams. However, not all is lost. Some of that has to do with the elite defense the Pats have, and the fact that the Pats will likely run more often than usual.

Feeling Patriotic? Let me know why. Missing Tom? Don’t worry, you can still buy his TB12 merch! Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the Cincinnati Bengals.