Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Fantasy Football

Buy Low on Kyler Murray

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I recently wrote an article on Kyler Murray Myths. That focused on addressing the made-up cons for Kyler Murray. This article will focus on the pros. He has been a 1st round startup pick for the past couple of years. Now that he’s significantly cheaper. It’s a good time to buy low on Kyler Murray.

Proven Production

Ever since being a rookie, he has produced for fantasy. He even finished above Patrick Mahomes in his first two seasons. He also had three consecutive years with over 3,500 passing yards and 20 passing TDs. That might not sound like much, but when you add an average of nearly 600 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs (which are worth more) over that timespan, that’s impressive. As a reference, Lamar Jackson has only passed 3,000 passing yards once and he didn’t pass 3,500. And as a reminder, he didn’t have great weapons his rookie season and he has had to deal with a subpar coach the entire time. Considering how many passing yards he loses to his legs, he puts up good passing stats.

The Injury Rebound

Last year, Deshaun Watson was often falling to around the 4th round or later of dynasty startups despite there not being an injury and a set return date from the suspension. He played pretty poorly yet is now a 2nd round startup pick. That’s a pretty clear sign that Kyler should have a similar rebound just by returning to health. And an ACL tear is something we regularly see NFL players returning from. The recovery timeline even makes it possible that he starts the season (though I would not expect it).

GLENDALE, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 12: Kyler Murray #1 of the Arizona Cardinals is carted off the field after being injured against the New England Patriots during the first quarter of the game at State Farm Stadium on December 12, 2022 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)

Job Security

Production is great in redraft, but longevity matters in dynasty too. Kyler has both. The Cardinals have shown they stand behind Kyler. Firstly, they paid him $230.5 million with most of it guaranteed. Some may say that was with a previous staff so the new staff has no loyalty to him. But I don’t think a GM takes this job with plans to eat that salary and make his cap situation terrible. Furthermore, even the new staff have shown they support Kyler with their actions. The GM and coach were criticized for visiting a Kyler Murray statue unveiling at The University of Oklahoma the day before the NFL draft. You don’t do that for a player you plan on discarding. The next day, they also showed they support Kyler through their pick. Kyler specifically requested they draft Paris Johnson, when they had the third overall pick, to bolster his offensive line. The Cardinals were poised to get an elite edge rusher in Will Anderson Jr. but traded back and drafted Kyler’s guy.

Even if they get a top 2 pick and draft a quarterback, they would not do so unless they were able to trade Kyler to a team who is willing to pay for him, in the trade and for his salary. So that would still mean he has job security regardless of what jersey he dons next season.

Wrap-Up

I see people trading Kyler away for one or two future firsts. This seems ridiculous to me since those won’t even help produce fantasy points this year. By the time they can be turned into players, I’m pretty confident Kyler will be worth at least three average 1sts. Young quarterbacks with job security who put up big fantasy points are the most scarce resource in Superflex dynasty leagues. This is your chance to get one cheap. Buy low on Kyler Murray.

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