Monday, May 13, 2024

Fantasy Football

Buy Patrick Mahomes

The title may sound ridiculous, but this may be the best buy-low window for the best asset in dynasty Superflex leagues since his breakout. I’m not saying he’ll be cheap, but this may be the only time for years that such an immovable asset becomes movable. Here are a few reasons to buy Patrick Mahomes now.

Current Production

He’s ‘only’ averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game. That’s the worst he’s been since taking the starting job in Kansas City in 2018. Getting 25.68 fantasy points for a QB5 finish was the best output on the week he has had this season. For context, that’s about what his average was last year. He hasn’t had any 30+ point week-winning games so far so he has been disappointing fantasy owners.

Future Production

There’s a strong narrative that things won’t improve this year. The defence is good, his wide receivers are subpar (and that’s being generous), and they’re winning games anyway. People might not expect a change.

So Will Things Improve?

I expect it will get better. Firstly, I expect them to upgrade at wide receiver next season. Losing JuJu Smith-Schuster was somehow a significant downgrade so getting someone better than him next season shouldn’t be difficult. Their young receivers should also improve with experience. Travis Kelce is also not showing signs of slowing down despite his age. But this isn’t just a long-term thing. I think things can improve this year. The Chiefs have one of the best schedules coming up for fantasy QBs. Getting more chemistry with new receivers like Rashee Rice should also help.

KANSAS CITY, MO – OCTOBER 12: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs drops back to pass during an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on October 12, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Wrap-Up

He won’t be cheap, and I don’t recommend decimating your team to get him. But if you have the depth to afford him, this may be the best time to buy Patrick Mahomes, even if he might cost around 5 firsts (or equivalent).

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