This is the 26th of 32 Ceilings and Floors, covering each NFL team’s QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. We continue with the NFC South and the Carolina Panthers. In case you missed it, here is the breakdown for the Atlanta Falcons. (Depth Charts courtesy of footballguys.com)
Ceilings and Floors: Quarterback
QB1: Teddy Bridgewater
CEILING: Bridgewater set career highs in 2019 with a 67.9 completion percentage, 4.6 TD percentage, 1.0 INT percentage, and a 99.1 Quarterback Rating. Bridgewater continues improving in his age 28 season, passing for 29 TDs and 4,100 yards, using McCaffrey to pad his stats.
FLOOR: In Bridgewater’s last full season, he finished with 3,231 yards passing and 14 TDs. These are his floor. His yards per attempt were actually worse in 2019 than in his first two years in Minnesota.
PREDICTION: Bridgewater is not a fantasy QB. he went 5-0 with 9 TDs and 2 INTs last year covering for Brees, and he had Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in Sean Payton’s offense. He is not prolific. I expect 24 TDs and 3,600 yards, much of which comes from the excellence of McCaffrey.
QB2: Will Grier
CEILING: Grier had 4 INTs and 0 TDs in 2 games last year, along with a 4.4 yards per attempt average and a 53.8 percent completion percentage. I know this is supposed to be the ceiling, but I can’t even take myself seriously suggesting a ceiling exists.
FLOOR: Grier had 4 INTs and 0 TDs in 2 games last year. Let us extrapolate his numbers. His floor is 32 interceptions. Zero TDs. Don’t you love math?
PREDICTION: He won’t throw 32 passes. or 3. But he will throw water to the starters and hit them just over half the time. I expect some consistency from him in this aspect.
QB3: P.J. Walker
CEILING: Walker had a 15:4 TD:INT ratio, completing nearly 65 percent of his passes for 1.338 yards passing, He could become QB2. But counting stats for fantasy? Yea, no.
FLOOR: Walker did all that against XFL defenses. Unless I have been mislead, he won’t be playing against those defenses in 2020. Or any defenses in 2020.
PREDICTION: He makes a guest appearance for Vince McMahon in WWE Smackdown. His nickname is PeeJay Walker. Sleepwalkers everywhere get a new hero.
Ceilings and Floors: Running Back
RB1: Christian McCaffrey
CEILING: McCaffrey is averaging 101 catches per year in his career. As a running back. His touches and TDs have increased each season. He somehow eclipses his touches from last year and scores 21 total TDs to go along with his 2.600 yards.
FLOOR: Defenses sell out specifically to stop Run CMC. Carolina’s offense stalls when he is stopped and McCaffrey only manages 1,400 total yards and 9 total TDs.
PREDICTION: In 2019, McCaffrey proved he is QB and matchup proof. The guy produces day and night, weekdays and weekends, holidays, and during overtime. 15 TDs and 2,200 of the hardest to come by yards you have ever seen.
RB2: Reggie Bonnafon
CEILING: Bonnafon averaged 7.9 yards per touch in 2019, and emerges as the complementary option to McCaffrey, scoring 4 times while adding 350 yards from scrimmage.
FLOOR: McCaffrey takes over 90 percent of the offensive snaps at RB for the third year in a row. Bonnafon weeps and scores no TDs along with 180 total yards.
PREDICTION: If Carolina wants to be any good in 2020, McCaffrey should probably touch the ball as often as possible, leaving only scraps for Bonnafon. Zero TDs, 230 total yards. Leads team in scoring celebrations three times.
RB3: Mike Davis
CEILING: Davis scores 5 TDs and 748 total yards, because once he did that, and technically he is capable of producing those numbers. Literally too.
FLOOR: Davis replicates his touches and yards from his last stint in Carolina. Both of those numbers equal two. Neither is good for you.
PREDICTION: Davis is not getting many touches, or scoring TDs, or acquiring yards. Zero TDs, 12 yards, because Miss Davis was a 10 according to Billy Bob, and 10 plus 2 is 12. Don’t doubt my logic.
RB4: Jordan Scarlett
CEILING: Scarlett had four carries last year. If you subtract his worst three carries, he had six yards on that one run. Does that mean Scarlett is capable of six yards per carry? No, but it took a lot of reaching to pretend any statistical basis for excitement existed here.
FLOOR: Subtract his one “long” run of six yards, and he is averaging one yard per carry. As exciting as six yards per carry is, one yard per carry is downright awful. And it was not difficult to make his floor look bad.
PREDICTION: He probably doesn’t even get four carries this year.
Ceilings and Floors: Wide Receiver
WR1: D.J. Moore
CEILING: Moore and Bridgewater form an instant chemistry. Moore continues his growth as a young, burgeoning star, scoring 9 TDs along with 1,500 yards once he gets stable QB play.
FLOOR: Moore regressed in yards per touch in 2019 with the added volume. In his breakout 2019 season, he only managed 4 TDs. His floor, to me, looks like 4 TDs, 1,100 yards. He also has as many career TDs as fumbles, six.
PREDICTION: There is a lot of hype surrounding Moore in 2020, due to his age and what he has already accomplished. However, buyer beware, Bridgewater has a lower career TD percentage than both Kyle Allen and Cam Newton. 5 TDs, 1,200 yards, and still a solid fantasy season.
WR2: Curtis Samuel
CEILING: Samuel is coming off back-to-back 7 total TD seasons. His touches have increased each year, and if that trend continues, you could be looking at a 9 TD, 1,000-yard season.
FLOOR: Bridgewater, as I have said, isn’t exactly prolific. Samuel seems to have a nose for scoring despite limited touches, so his floor looks like 4 TDs, 400 yards.
PREDICTION: Samuel will score more TDs than Moore for the third straight year. 6 TDs, 700 yards.
WR3: Robby Anderson
CEILING: Anderson has a 14.4 yards per touch career average, and has scored at least 5 TDs for three consecutive years. He emerges as a big-play threat, scoring 7 TDs along with 900 total yards.
FLOOR: Anderson is the WR3 of an offense that heavily involves McCaffrey, and sees minimal touches. 2 TDs, 300 yards. Worth noting- his career catch percentage is 54.2, which isn’t exactly exciting.
PREDICTION: Anderson struggles to see touches in this offense, and impacts the game once or twice a week. He will have occasional chunk plays but finish with a pedestrian 3 TD, 400-yard season.
WR4: Seth Roberts
CEILING: Roberts emerges as the WR3, and posts a modest 4 TD, 500 yard season. He has had serviceable WR3-level seasons for Oakland in the past.
FLOOR: Roberts does not see many touches, and we see something similar to the 2 TD, 271 yard performance from last year. Except Carolina’s offense doesn’t look much like Baltimore’s, so let’s say 0 TDs, 150 yards.
PREDICTION: Roberts won’t touch the ball much, score, or really play. This is not Kansas City, Carolina isn’t looking to win vertically. I am not high on the Carolina WR corps as a whole.
WR5: Pharoh Cooper, WR6: Brandon Zylstra, WR7: Keith Kirkwood, WR8: DeAndrew White, WR9: Greg Dortch, WR10: Omar Bayless
CEILING: This year, there is nothing here for you. There are some fliers in dynasty, but the situation looks bleak in Carolina long-term as well. Moore, Samuel, and Anderson are not old, and McCaffrey plays here.
FLOOR: The floor is where they end up after they become so bored on the bench they have a pepper eating contest using Carolina Reapers. Rest in Peace, fellas.
PREDICTION: These guys will not all make the team. And none of them will have more than five offensive touches.
Ceilings and Floors: Tight End
TE1: Ian Thomas
CEILING: With consistent QB play, Thomas breaks out in a big way. Now that Greg Olsen has moved on, Thomas gets the majority of the TE touches and scores 8 TDs along with 900 yards.
FLOOR: I know the QB play was inconsistent, but Thomas was targeted less, had a lower yards per touch, catch percentage, and TD total in 2019 than 2018. If that trend were to continue for some reason, we could be looking at a 1 TD, 250-yard disappointment.
PREDICTION: Thomas is still getting better, he is young. This will be the first time he entered the season as the clear-cut TE1. He has shown flashes early in his career, and Bridgewater is good in the short-intermediate range, where Thomas could feast. I like 5 TDs and 600 yards.
TE2: Seth Devalve
CEILING: Devalve has big-play potential, and could emerge as a complementary option in two TE sets, which would make sense for Carolina personnel-wise. His best season looks like 5 TDs, 400 yards. He has averaged 12.3 yards per touch in his four-year career. The potential for chunk plays is real.
FLOOR: Devalve watches the superior weapons around him absorb all the touches, and is relegated to 1 TD and 150 yards.
PREDICTION: Devalve won’t be heavily involved in the offense, but he will have a big game or two. I like 2 TDs, 250 yards.
TE3: Chris Manhertz
CEILING: Manhertz gets 11 targets, doubling his career targets, and scores 1 TD along with 165 yards receiving. He does average 15 yards per touch in his career coming into 2020.
FLOOR: He has only had 6 catches on 11 targets during his 5 year, 54 game career. Zero catches, zero stats. Man, that hertz in fantasy.
PREDICTION: Manhertz will make the roster due to his ability to block and play special teams. However, he will not make a fantasy roster unless Thomas and Devalve are simultaneously suspended for using “Sex Panther” as a cologne, inadvertently triggering a false positive on their drug test results.