Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football

Da Bears: Projections

Da Bears. Coach Ditka can’t be happy, and Chris Farley’s character is rolling in his grave. Let’s just pretend 2019 didn’t happen, right Da Bears? Right. In case you missed it, last time we covered the Washington Redskins. Now, let us move on to Da Bears, and see what 2020 has in store. It better be better than 2019, or Ditka is gonna be pissed.

QB:

Pick yourself up Mitch. You got one more shot. Make me look smart, stop sucking, and keep your job.

Mitchell Trubisky: Passing: 327/501-3,607 Yds, 24 TD: 11 INT
Rushing: 46-251-2 TD: 6 FMBL
Standard: 260.38 (24)
0.5 PPR: 260.38 (24)
1 PPR: 260.38 (24)

Nick Foles: Passing: 44/67-422, 3 TD: 1 INT
Rushing: 5-17, 1 FMBL
Standard: 28.58 (38)
0.5 PPR: 28.58 (38)
1 PPR: 28.58 (38)

I expect Trubisky to play 14 games, and Foles about 2. But I do believe Trubisky is the better target here, and think he has some upside. I just don’t believe Foles is “the guy” for the Bears. Trubisky has one more chance to be. He was pretty good in 2018. Getting back to that would be huge for the Bears. I expect Trubisky to impress in 2020, and have some exposure to him late in drafts, in all formats.

Foles just doesn’t do it for me. Take a flier on Trubisky, but don’t have him as QB1, that’s just a bit crazy for my taste.

RB:

Who is gonna get over 250 carries this year?? This guy! Look how happy he is!

David Montgomery: Rushing: 256-1,109-7 TD: 3 FMBL
Receiving: 38 targets, 28 catches, 194 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 181.3 (18)
0.5 PPR: 195.3 (19)
1 PPR: 209.3 (22)

Tarik Cohen: Rushing: 61-253- 1 TD: 3 FMBL
Receiving: 96 targets, 74 catches, 534 Yds, 4 TD
Standard: 105.7 (45)
0.5 PPR: 142.7 (35)
1 PPR: 179.7 (31)

You gotta like the volume Monty should see in 2020. He disappointed in 2019, but the Bears themselves disappointed as a whole. I expect less disappointment, more fantasy production in 2020. Monty is safe to see 250 plus rushes, and that alone has my attention. He managed 6 TDs last year despite his other flaws. I think that’s his TD floor.

Cohen has serious PPR potential. I see him getting a ton of targets in the passing game. He lines up all over the field, and will get his looks. Enjoy those catches, everyone! He is gonna get them.

WR:

A Rob gets catches. Like, a lot of them. Maybe even more than I projected. Then again, maybe not. Who really knows these things anyways? Oh yea, I do.

Allen Robinson: Rushing: 2-13, 1 FMBL
Receiving: 131 targets, 82 catches, 1,071 Yds, 7 TD
Standard: 149.4 (17)
0.5 PPR: 190.4 (16)
1 PPR: 231.4 (15)

Anthony Miller: Rushing: 1-8, 1 FMBL
Receiving: 89 targets, 56 catches, 718 Yds, 3 TD
Standard: 89.6 (58)
0.5 PPR: 117.6 (56)
1 PPR: 145.6 (54)

Ted Ginn: Rushing: 2-16, 1 FMBL
Receiving: 47 targets, 26 catches, 373 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 49.9 (92)
0.5 PPR: 62.9 (93)
1 PPR: 75.9 (92)

Riley Ridley: Receiving: 31 targets, 25 catches, 251 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 37.1 (102)
0.5 PPR: 49.6 (100)
1 PPR: 62.1 (98)

Cordarrelle Patterson: Rushing: 27-174-1 TD: 1 FMBL
Receiving: 10 targets, 6 catches, 58 Yds
Standard: 28.2 (109)
0.5 PPR: 31.2 (115)
1 PPR: 34.2 (118)

Javon Wims: Receiving: 15 targets, 9 catches, 104 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 16.4 (135)
0.5 PPR: 20.9 (134)
1 PPR: 25.4 (136)

Robinson is a stud, I will happily get exposure to him, but he is usually ranked a bit higher on other peoples lists than I have him. So my exposure is low. But he has an incredible floor, and elite ceiling. I wish I had more exposure. Draft him with confidence.

Miller is a wild card. The talent is there, but will he be fantasy viable in 2020 after teasing the last two years? I think to a degree, yes. I want more exposure to him in dynasty rather than in redraft, simply because of the current volatility residing from last year’s offense. The Bears should be improved, but 2020 Miller might end up being a better NFL player than fantasy player. But his career upside still intrigues me, and he could break out in 2020. But Robinson is the alpha.

WR3 is a bit of a pickle. Ginn provides a deep threat so he will see the field, and Patterson is gonna get looks as a gadget player. The guys I am curious about are RIdley and Wims. I suspect Ridley wins the job, and grows into his role in 2020. Might be worth a late look in dynasty.

TE:

Jimmy, how dare you come into this article wearing that?! Don’t you know where you are? Thoughtless.

Jimmy Graham: Receiving: 61 targets, 32 catches, 368 Yds, 3 TD
Standard: 54.8 (29)
0.5 PPR: 70.8 (30)
1 PPR: 86.8 (30)

Cole Kmet: Receiving: 38 targets, 25 catches, 277 Yds, 2 TD
Standard: 39.7 (39)
0.5 PPR: 52.2 (39)
1 PPR: 64.7 (39)

Demetrius Harris: Receiving: 12 targets, 8 catches, 81 Yds, 1 TD
Standard: 14.1 (66)
0.5 PPR: 18.1 (66)
1 PPR: 22.1 (66)

I like Kmet in dynasty, but Graham is the value in redraft. He doesn’t offer much though. I would rather take a flyer on Kmet ascending, but it seems incredibly unlikely for a rookie TE to contribute early. Graham is a shell of himself, a big body that can make plays, but lacking what made him special. He reminds me of a 2019 Jason Witten. Not exactly, but just realize he isn’t the same guy. It is Kmet’s job sooner or later.

In redraft, avoid this TE grouping. In dynasty, Kmet makes sense long term, he should be solid.

I project the Bears to score 1,240.66 points in 0.5 PPR formats, which is good for 21st. I love A Rob and want exposure to Monty. There are some fliers here with Trubisky, Miller, and Kmet that I am comfortable getting after later. I am hopeful the Bears get it figured out in 2020, because those value plays could pay off in a big way.

Chicago! Hope this gives you a bit of hope for the 2020 season. You aren’t far away from contending. A couple things go right, and who knows what could happen. Follow me on Twitter @realryanhicks. Follow Belly Up Fantasy on Twitter for all your sports needs. Next up, we have the Detroit Lions.