Hard to believe, but it’s true! The Super Bowl is behind us. That being the case, welcome to Spring Training! Pitchers and catchers begin reporting this week across Florida and Arizona. We aren’t far away from hearing baseballs popping into catcher’s mitts and the crack of the bat. Truly, it is an exciting time. In preparation, I have put together some articles on fantasy baseball. Everything that I have written, including my rising starters, is available on Belly Up Fantasy Sports. In this Fantasy Baseball First-Base Tiers edition, I turn my attention to the first basemen that managers need to be on the look for on draft day.

In these tiers, I have the best players, players on the rise, players to be cautious of and those on the decline. As always, discussion and debate are highly encouraged. Agree or disagree? In either case, let me hear from you!

Tier One

Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers, age 34, 161 games, .331-29-102, 211 hits, 131 runs, 59 doubles, 121K, 72BB, .410/.567/.977, .370 BAbip, 23 SBs, 1 CS, 161 OPS+, .235 ISO, 16.6 SO%, 9.9 BB%, FantasyPros: 1, ESPN: 1.

Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves, age 29, 162 games, .283-54-139, 172 hits, 127 runs, 167K, 104BB, .389/.604/.993, 162 OPS+, .302 BAbip, .321 ISO, 23.2 SO%, 14.4 BB%, .302 BAbip, FantasyPros: 2, ESPN: 2.

Comment: Clearly, these are the top two first basemen in baseball. They provide stats across the spectrum, they play every day and are in excellent batting orders. If you are considering drafting a first baseman early, these two are far ahead of the others to follow.

Tier Two

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies, age 31, 126 games, .293-21-72, 84 runs, 134 hits, 119K, 80BB, .401/.499/.900, 146 OPS+, .321 ISO, 21.8 SO%, 14.7 BB%, .352 BAbip, FantasyPros: 3, ESPN: 4.

Pete Alonso, New York Mets, age 29, 154 games, .217-46-118, 84 runs, 123 hits, 151K, 65BB, .318/.504/.822, 23.0 SO%, 9.9 BB%, .287 ISO, .205 BAbip, 7.0 HR%, 122 OPS+, FantasyPros: 4, ESPN: 5.

Vladimir Guerrero, Toronto Blue Jays, age 24, 156 games, .264-26-94, 78 runs, 159 hits, 100K, 67BB, .345/.444/.789, 277 BAbip, .179 ISO, 14.7 SO%, 9.8 BB%, 117 OPS+, FantasyPros: 5, ESPN: 3.

Comment: As you may recall, Harper began last season injured. However, there was good news because he returned in May instead of the expected July. It took some time, of course, to round into shape. Once he did, though, he delivered. Now healthy, expect Harper to return to his days of glory past. The fact that he is now qualified at first, instead of just DH, definitely helps his fantasy value.

By now, we all know what we are getting out of Alonso: massive home run totals but lacking in other areas at the plate. Even so, the HRs and RBIs are hard to ignore and he clearly belongs in this tier.

As for Guerrero, he regressed last year. It seems he has been in the majors forever, but is only 24. He can certainly turn it around, but until he does, he must be listed after Harper and Alonzo in this tier.

Tier Three

 Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals, age 36, 154 games, .268-25-80, 89 runs, 159 hits, 161K, 87BB, .363/.447/.810, .327 BAbip, .179 ISO, 120 OPS+, 23.4 SO%, 12.7 BB%, FantasyPros: 7, ESPN: 7

Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks, age 32, 157 games, .258-33-103, 86 runs, 150 hits, 127K, 62BB, .333/.497/.830, .272 BAbip, .239 ISO, 123 OPS+, 19.2 SO%, 9.4 BB%, FantasyPros 8, ESPN 9.

Comment: Almost across the board, Goldschmidt’s number took a dive last season. Even so, expect a reverse in his stats in 2024. After all, he is only one season removed from leading the league in SLG, OPS and OPS+.

The Cardinals can’t be as bad as they were in 2023 and he will get a boost from being in a better lineup. In his previous five full seasons, Goldschmidt hit over 30 homers. Managers won’t have to draft him quite so early this year. Because of that, he could return real value in 2024.

As for Walker, it is a mystery how much he is ignored by the fantasy community. Over the past two seasons, he has hit at least 33 homers and had 94 or more RBIs. He can even steal a base (11 last year with no CS). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Walker pass Goldschmidt this season. Until he does, though, Walker will remain just behind him on this Fantasy Baseball First-Base Tiers edition.

Tier Four

Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds, age 24, 156 games, .271-23-86, 74 runs, 158 hits, 139K, 68BB, .356/.464,/820, .318 BAbip, .192 ISO, 119 OPS+, 20.9 SO%, 10.2 BB%, FantasyPros: 12, ESPN: 12.

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox, age 24, 132 games, .263-24-65, 66 runs, 113 hits, 126K, 70BB, .364/.490/.857, .317 BAbip, .226 ISO, 129 OPS+, 25.1 SO%, 13.9 BB%, FantasyPros: 9, ESPN: 11.

Comment: Anyone in dynasty looking for first basemen with massive upsides need look no further. Both are only 24 and coming off their first full seasons in the majors. Without question, both had to adjust to the big leagues, especially Casas. However, once they did, both produced down the stretch.

In redraft, if a manager wants to wait to pull the trigger on a first baseman, both will produce value. Steer leads the way here due to his also being eligible at 3B and the OF. That fact alone gives him a big boost over Casas.

Tier Five

Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays, age 32, 137 games, .330-22-78, 95 runs, 173 hits, 94K, 65BB, .410/.522/.932, .367 BAbip, .192 ISO, 158 OPS+, 15.7 SO%, 10.8 BB%, FantasyPros: 13, ESPN: 6.

Cody Bellinger, FA, age 28, 130 games, .307-26-97, 95 runs, 153 hits, 87K, 40BB, .356/.525/881, .319 BAbip, .218 ISO, 133 OPS+, 15.7 SO%, 7.2 BB%, FantasyPros: 6, ESPN: 8.

Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers, age 28, 161 games, .262-17-82, 89 runs, 163 hits, 165K, 96BB, .360/414/.774, .329 BAbip, .152 ISO, 111 OPS+, 22.8 SO%, 12.9 BB%, FantasyPros: 20, ESPN: 22.

Comment: Right off the bat, let me say that I reserve the right to adjust Bellinger once he has signed. As of this writing, that hasn’t happened. Even when he does sign on the dotting line, I won’t be adjusting him very much, though.

True, he had a great season in 2023. However, it is impossible to ignore the massive issues he had at the plate in his last years as a Dodger. Was last season a result of him getting back his batting touch or simply because he wanted to cash in on free agency? Only time will tell. I think that his potential down side takes him out of the top 10 for me. I wouldn’t be willing to draft him that high.

If ESPN is the platform you use, Diaz doesn’t have as much value there. As the sixth ranked 1B, he will come off the board early. At that level, waiting for a player ranked beneath him makes more sense. Diaz being also eligible at 3B helps him. However, in my opinion, I would still be patient and let someone else pull the trigger on him.

For sure, Lowe didn’t measure up at the plate to what he accomplished in 2022. Even as that’s the case, he is only one season removed from being the AL’s Silver Slugger at 1B. He plays every day as his 161 games clearly indicates. He has played at least 157 games each of the last three seasons. Ranked in the 20s at 1B, Lowe has a lot of value here on this Fantasy Baseball First-Base Tiers edition.

First Base Values

Last week, I wrote an entire article on this subject. All of the players in this tier and their information is available here.

First Baseman to be Cautious of

Brandon Drury, Los Angeles Angels, age 31, 125 games, .262-26-83, 127 hits, 61 runs, 126K, 38BB, .306/.497/.803, 114 OPS+, .308 BAbip, .235 ISO, 26 SO%, 4.8 BB%, FantasyPros: 27, ESPN: 28

Comment: There are times during the season when Drury has value as a streamer. He gets hot for stretches, but then cools off. This season, with the loss of Ohtani and a lackluster batting order, Drury will be asked to provide more than he’s probably able to provide. He will most likely hit higher in the order than in the past.

That might make an owner think he will have a nice season. Usually the higher in the order the better. However, with Drury, I think that he would be more comfortable hitting lower. IMO, there will be a lot of pressure on Drury this year and I don’t think that is a good thing.

To be sure, there’s not a lot to like in Anaheim in 2024. Pass on him in the draft and pick him up whenever he hits the ball well. Once he cools back down, as we know that he will, return him to the wire.

First Base Fallers

Josh Bell, Miami Marlins, age 31, 150 games, .247-22-74, 135 hits, 52 runs, 134K, 63BB, .325/.419/.744, 104 OPS+, .287 BAbip, .172 ISO, 21.7 SO%, 10.2 BB%, FantasyPros: 28, ESPN 21

Jose Abreu, Houston Astros, age 37, 141 games, .237-18-90, 128 hits, 62 runs, 130K, 42BB, .296/.383/.679, 87 OPS+, .276 BAbip, .146 ISO, 21.9 SO%, 7.1 BB%, 3.0 HR%, FantasyPros 29, ESPN not ranked

Comment: In almost all categories, Bell was below what he produced in 2022. His SO% went up and his BB% went down. His OPS+ was the second lowest of his career. Obviously, hitting in Miami does nothing for his fantasy value. Even as low as he is ranked by FantasyPros and ESPN, I will pass on Bell in 2024.

As for Abreu, he was one of the most disappointing players in 2023. Many in the fantasy community, including myself, thought that he would have a career rejuvenation in Houston. Nothing could have been further from the truth.

He rallied some late, but his season was a complete disaster for those that drafted him. This season, there is absolutely no reason to select Abreu on draft day, regardless of format. Leave him on the wire.

The Last Word

Thank you for joining me for this Fantasy Baseball First-Base Tiers edition! Debate and discussion are always encouraged when it comes to my fantasy articles. Do you agree or disagree? Have another first baseman or two in mind? Let’s talk about it.

The Sports Stove Fantasy Baseball Show will be live every Sunday at 8 pm Eastern from here to the end of the fantasy season, at the least. Don’t miss out! In our last episode, we discussed our catchers tiers, risers and players to be cautious of.

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