Sunday, May 19, 2024

Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Second Half Difference Makers

With August on the doorstep, the baseball season, both real and fantasy, enter the stretch run. Almost beyond belief, the playoffs are just five weeks away. There are several players that will play major roles in their team’s success or failure, on the field and in fantasy. Many are currently injured, and just as many have been inconsistent this season. How they fare down the stretch will have huge implications for the postseason. Without question, these players need to be heavily monitored so quality decisions can be made. Identifying these fantasy baseball difference makers is the very purpose of this article. When finished, remember to check out the articles on players to pick up or get rid of. Without wasting another moment, bring on these difference makers.

Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets

When last seen throwing in a big-league stadium, Jacob deGrom was simply the best pitcher in baseball. Unfortunately, that was over a year ago. There is good news on the horizon, however. deGrom made his fourth, and reportedly, last rehab start Wednesday for AAA Syracuse. In that start, deGrom was less than dominant, allowing four runs on four hits and three walks in four innings.

Even so, the important news is that deGrom said that he felt good from a physical standpoint. Truly, that is all we need to hear. It appears likely that deGrom will make his first start of the season sometime next week. Just as likely, he will be on a pitch count restriction after throwing 67 Wednesday.

The question fantasy managers will have to answer is if he should be started immediately. The answer clearly is yes, given the quality of pitcher that deGrom is. There is absolutely no doubt that deGrom will have a mammoth impact on his owner’s fantasy playoff potential.

If he pitches as he is capable of, deGrom turns a good pitching staff into a dominate one. If he turns out to be an average pitcher, or gets hurt again, the staff takes a huge step back. Whatever happens, deGrom is clearly at the top of this fantasy baseball difference makers edition.

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

As deGrom is baseball’s best pitcher, Mike Trout is likewise the best hitter in the land when healthy. Clearly, the issue has been that Trout hasn’t been healthy for a whole season in quite some time. This year, Trout avoided any problems until right before the All-Star break.

The clock ran out on him on July 12, however, and he landed on the injured list with left rib cage inflammation. The number of games missed has now reached double digits. Recently it was announced Trout will not return from the IL this coming Monday, when he is first eligible.

Of course, that is not good news to the Angels, their fans, baseball in general, or his fantasy managers. Honestly, Trout has had his share of struggles this season. His career worst 0-26 stretch he endured in June clearly demonstrates that fact. However, he was still having a Trout like year when he was hurt with 24 homers, 51 RBIs, 75 hits and 55 runs.

Even with all the games he has missed, his slugging is fifth and his home run total is sixth in baseball. If Trout can get back on the field sooner than later, he will provide an obvious boost to his fantasy managers.

To further cloud the issue, there is recent news that Trout has a rare back condition he will have to manage the rest of his career. Certainly, no one is going to drop Trout unless it is announced he will miss the rest of the season. Until that happens, he will sit on the I.L.

If he gets back on the field and provides Trout like offensive numbers, a fantasy lineup becomes top notch. If not, that same lineup has a huge hole. Without doubt, Trout’s health will have major implications in fantasy baseball down the stretch.

Nick Pivetta, SP, Boston Red Sox

To be sure, the question running through many reading this article is what is Nick Pivetta doing here? Obviously, there can be no comparison between him and all-time greats like deGrom and Trout. No question that is accurate. Even so, the truth of the matter is that before encountering a recent brutal three game stretch, Pivetta was pitching like an All-Star himself this season.

From June 14th to the 29th, Pivetta allowed a total of six earned runs in 28 innings. In another equally dominating period from May 7th to June 4th, he gave up just eight earned over 41 innings. Not surprisingly, Pivetta won all eight of his starts during those two periods.

However, it all came crashing down in his last three starts before the All-Star break. In 13.1 innings, Pivetta was lit up for 20 earned runs along with 23 hits and seven walks. Many managers made an immediate move and dropped him over a cliff.

I thought that having patience was the answer, considering Pivetta faced the juggernaut Yankee offense in consecutive games. His first start after the break was against a top eight offense against right-handers in Cleveland on Monday. The result was just one earned run on seven hits with six strikeouts and three walks in 5.2 innings.

Without doubt, if Pivetta can pitch anywhere close to that level in the second half, he transforms a good fantasy rotation into a stellar one. Whatever his result, Pivetta will impact his manager’s fantasy team, one way or another. That truly makes him one of the central players on this fantasy baseball difference makers edition.

Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals (for now)

Of course, everyone has heard that Juan Soto turned down a huge offer from the Nationals. Almost immediately, the speculation began where Washington would trade him to. As the trade deadline is Tuesday, the Nationals must make a quick decision if they want to move him this year.

Truth be told, Soto’s numbers are way down this year. With almost no protection in the lineup other than Josh Bell, there is little reason to pitch to Soto. Obviously, that fact will have no impact on teams making a play for him.

However, whether or not he gets traded will immediately affect his fantasy prospects. If he is in a better hitting lineup, his stats will undoubtedly rise to the levels we have seen in the past. Even with the downturn, Soto has 20 homers, 45 RBIs, 81 hits and 58 runs scored. If he does wind up on a team headed to the postseason, it is possible Soto could match those numbers in just two months’ time.

More than anyone else listed here, his trade status will have a gigantic impact on his fantasy prospects. Unquestionably, there will be plenty of eyeballs watching as time counts down to Tuesday. Soto is right at the top of the list on this fantasy baseball difference makers edition.

Marcus Semien, 2B/SS, Texas Rangers

Of all the players that signed a free agent contract this past offseason, none got off to a worse start than Marcus Semien. The fact that he was hitting .157 at the end of April is a pretty convincing argument. However, seeing as how he didn’t hit his first home run of the season or drive in more than a single run in a game until May 28 seals the deal.

After all, Semien was one of the biggest fantasy values in 2021 when he had 173 hits, scored 115 runs, launched 45 homers and drove in 102 runs for Toronto. He was third in the AL MVP voting. Semien then signed with the Rangers during free agency.

As noted, the 2022 season has not been smooth sailing for Semien or those that drafted him. To be fair, he has played better the past couple of months. For the season, Semien is hitting .237-13-46. One part of his game that hasn’t suffered is in the stolen base department. His 17 steals are ninth in baseball.

That is well and good, but everyone expected much more than 13 homers and 46 RBIs in late July. The last seven days haven’t been kind to Semien, either, as he is hitting just .207 and has gone through an 0-12 stretch.

No doubt, Semien will not come anywhere near the statistics he put up in 2021. In fact, this season is looking like a mirror image of what he produced in 2020. If that continues to be the case, he will not positively impact his manager’s fantasy team.

If he can somehow resemble his Toronto self from last season, Semien truly solidifies the middle infield positions down the stretch. In any event, Semien stands as one of the biggest fantasy baseball difference makers going into August.

Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves

Of the players that came into the 2022 season injured, the return of Ronald Acuna was likely the most anticipated. Acuna played exactly half a season in 2021 before getting hurt. He put up some eye-popping numbers: .283-24-52 with 72 runs and 17 steals. He missed the rest of the season and postseason.

Further, he wasn’t healthy when this year began. Fantasy managers had to decide where to take him in drafts in April. How much value he contributed was directly linked to where he was selected. As August is almost here, the picture of Acuna is now pretty clear.

He was voted to start the All-Star game, but he hasn’t yet returned to his pre-injury level. As of this moment, Acuna is hitting .259-8-23 with 39 runs and 11 doubles. He has shown that his speed is still elite with 21 stolen bases, tied for third in baseball. The rest of his numbers just haven’t measured up, however. His OBP, SLG and OPS are the lowest of his career. His BB% is the lowest since his rookie season.

It is abundantly clear that if Acuna can regain his former offensive capability, that would immensely affect his fantasy numbers. If the stats continue as they have, Acuna will not impact the stretch run any more than any other player.

Martin Perez, SP, Texas Rangers

Quite possibly, there isn’t a player, both in real and fantasy baseball, that improved his value like Martin Perez did in 2022. In his second season in 2013, Perez won ten games with a 3.62 ERA for the Rangers. Since that time, he hasn’t had an ERA below 4.38. Further, he hasn’t had a winning season since 2019.

Flash forward to his start Friday against the Angels. Perez has been one of the best pitchers in either league, made all the more surprising given how Texas has been a mediocre team, at best, this year. He made his first All-Star game appearance, and he earned every bit of it. Perez is currently 8-2 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

Pretty impressive turnaround, yes? His ERA is ninth, his quality starts (13) is 12th and his innings pitched (118) is 16th in baseball. It looked like his season might unravel from June 27 to July 9 when Perez allowed 13 earned runs in 21 innings. However, he was right back on track in his next two starts, giving up just two earned in 12 innings. Even more impressive, Perez has pitched into the sixth inning or later in six of last seven appearances.

Best of all, Perez has 278 fantasy points in ESPN leagues, ahead of such notable pitchers as Pablo Lopez, Robbie Ray and Julio Urias. The question: can he continue to pitch this high over his career norms the rest of the way? If so, his fantasy manager’s pitching staffs are likely in great shape. If he falters, that great staff suddenly becomes vulnerable.

Perez was a gigantic difference maker in the first half, as he was certainly a waiver claim. Just how high Perez will rank on the scale of fantasy baseball difference makers coming down the stretch, only time will tell.

Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinatti Reds (for now)

Of all the pitchers awaiting the trade deadline, the most likely to find himself at a new destination on Tuesday is Luis Castillo. Given his latest performances, Castillo is going to have a gigantic impact on the stretch run no matter where he winds up. In his last four starts, Castillo has pitched exactly seven innings in each of them. He allowed six runs on 18 hits with 30 strikeouts and six walks. Unfortunately, he won only one of those starts, which shouldn’t be surprising given how terrible the Reds have played this year.

For the season, Castillo is 4-4, but has a 2.86 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. His hits per nine (6.7) is his lowest since 2019 and far below what he has accomplished the last two years. Castillo’s advanced stats (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS) are all the lowest of his career. After leading the league in losses and walks in 2021, it is safe to say that Castillo has truly turned himself around in a big way in 2022.

If Castillo truly does wind up on a contender, his chances of coming away with a win dramatically increase. That in turn directly affects his potential impact on the fantasy playoff race. Of course, a veteran pitcher on a team fighting for the postseason has tremendous value in fantasy. His managers don’t need to worry about innings limits or any other such nonsense.

Those managers that have Castillo on their fantasy rosters will want to keep a sharp eye on the trade news in the coming days. Wherever he lands, Castillo’s impact on the fantasy playoff race will be atmospheric.

Max Muncy, 1B/2B/3B/DH, Los Angeles Dodgers

Without question, there aren’t many, if any, players that have had a rougher go of it this season than Max Muncy. His was prevented from being a part of the Dodgers’ postseason run in 2021 due to injury. It has been obvious from the start of spring training that Muncy hasn’t been himself. His numbers to this point are by far career lows across the board.

Frankly, there are quite a few managers that have already pulled the cord and dumped Muncy from their teams. Before 2022, such a move would have been unthinkable. Not this year. Looking at Muncy’s stats could cause a burned retina, so proceed with caution. He is hitting, if one can call it that, .154-9-31. His slugging percentage of .300 is simply dreadful.

There has been no sense of him turning things around, either. Muncy enters play today with a .091 average with a single RBI in his last seven games. The question managers need to ask themselves: how long do I allow this to go on?

If this season of misery continues for much longer, Muncy needs to hit the waiver shower. Simply stated, Muncy can’t be allowed to sink a potential run to the fantasy playoffs. If he does, somehow, miraculously return to form, it would be a huge boost to any lineup.

However, planning for it could be a fool’s errand. Without doubt, Muncy’s play will make him one of the biggest of the fantasy baseball difference makers, one way or another.

The Last Word

Thank you for joining me for this fantasy baseball difference makers edition! As always, I welcome any and all suggestions, comments and input from my readers. Have players to add to the list? Let’s discuss! Follow me on twitter @kevin62wilsea. Please feel free to share this article. Check out the latest Belly Up Fantasy Live Baseball Show available here. Be sure to turn to Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports & Picks for the MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL happenings and all the latest sports news!