Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Fantasy Baseball, Uncategorized

Fantasy Baseball Stock Market

Gavin Lux playing for the Dodgers

Feeling frustrated watching the fluctuation of your fantasy team? You’re not alone. I’m here to help guide you through what’s real, what’s not, and what you can do to navigate your fantasy baseball stock market.

Buy Low: Gavin Lux

I think we were all surprised by the news of Gavin Lux being dropped. Service time games, team depth, and being behind in his preparation notwithstanding, it seemed a given that Gavin would be the opening day second baseman. The time at LA’s training site working the kinks out of his swing should benefit Lux greatly. He got a taste of the majors last year and played regularly in the postseason. While he struggled against lefties, Lux never had that issue in the minors (.381/.458/.595 against lefties in AAA). Take advantage of the disgruntled Lux owners in your league. Once he comes back, he’ll hit in a circular lineup that will provide him a bunch of counting stats. There may be some platoon risk, but if he performs to his capabilities, he’s a league winner.

Sell High: Luis Robert

Okay, don’t yell at me yet. I love Luis Robert. His ability is not in question. He’s a five-tool player, and he will make White Sox fans and anyone who has him in dynasty leagues happy for many years, and he’s crushing the ball early this season. No, there’s no “but.” But there is a “because of this.” Because of this, his value will never be higher. If you have him in your league, you can start the bidding war to end all bidding wars. As good as he is, he’s still not inside my top 15 OF for a redraft. Okay, you can yell at me now if you want. Before you do, though, consider the talented outfielders that exist. LuBob is currently performing as good as he ever will in his entire career. With all the divisional play, there’s a chance pitchers adjust to him in the second half of this short year. I’m not saying trade him no matter what, but test the waters. If you’re not satisfied with the return, then enjoy the ride.

Ride the High: Eric Hosmer

I know what you’re thinking. Why should I not sell Eric Hosmer? He’s a ground ball hitter with a barely average career OPS who’s off to a hot start. Facts, facts, and more facts. The difference between this year and all other years is he is finally making a concerted effort to hit the ball in the air. His launch angle last season was 1.9 degrees. So far, he is now lifting off with a launch angle of 24.6 degrees. Early returns have been amazing. If you don’t have him, don’t trade for him, but If you do have him, trust that this will continue. While it’s impossible to maintain a 100% hard-hit rate, his changes are for real, and he passes the eye test. He’s hitting the ball hard and in the air in all directions. I was high on Hosmer in the offseason, and I’m higher on him now that it’s clear he made those changes to his swing.

Don’t Buy: Kiké Hernandez

I love Enrique Hernandez. He’s fun to watch, talented, and I do think he’s improved this year. Sorry, this one has a “but.” He fills in admirably whenever he’s in the lineup, but he rarely has the opportunity. So far, he has started every game (7/23-7/25), but as I said before, I believe it is Gavin Lux’s position long term. And when Lux returns, there’s Max Muncy who splits his time at second base and Chris Taylor who plays all over the diamond. Kiké will get his time, but that’s not worth rostering unless you’re in a deeper league. Pick him up if you need someone to fill out your lineup for now, but don’t overreact and trade for a player who will spend most of the year frustrating you. The Dodgers rotate a lot, and their lineups are always the last to be posted. Have as many Dodgers as you can, but make sure you know when they’re going to play.

Monitor: Sam Hilliard and Garrett Hampson

We know the Rockies cliché by now. They rarely utilize their young talent in lieu of veterans well past their prime. Here’s how Hampson and Hilliard performed in Texas this weekend. Not pictured: Matt Kemp, Raimel Tapia, Chris Owings. The hope is Hampson and Hilliard take all their time, assuming Daniel Murphy and Ryan McMahon play relatively every day.

Garrett Hampson– 7/24: DNP, 7/25: LF, 7/26: DNP. Hampson went 1-4 in the series. He had a double and a run scored while striking out twice. He has the best hit tool of the group. Keep an eye on his playing time. He’s hit well at every minor league stop, and he’s also a good source of stolen bases.

Sam Hilliard– 7/24: LF, 7/25: DNP, 7/26: RF. Hilliard went 0-6 in the series with five strikeouts. I was pleasantly surprised to see Hilliard get two starts, and I’m hoping his poor showing doesn’t discourage future starts. He’s the toolsiest of this group, and if he receives regular playing time, he’s a proper power-speed threat.

Currently, Hilliard and Hampson are likely on your waiver wire. Don’t be scared by Hilliard’s early struggles. I’m wildly encouraged by the fact that he started those two games. If this continues, he’s a must-own in twelve-team leagues.

Thanks for the support! While you’re here, check out the great fantasy content at Belly Up Fantasy Sports and follow me on Twitter @saint_patricio for more insight on navigating your league’s fantasy stock market.