Welcome to the Fantasy Football Value Check! Over the course of the season I will be updating the values of players, and offering my advice on what to do with this knowledge. A players value is up, but should you buy, sell, or hold? Essentially, this series will combine the idea of a sort of power ranking with that of a buy/sell column. With that, here are the players I have chosen to highlight from week 1 moving into week 2.

Rising

Rob Gronkowski, Tight End, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is the most confident that I have ever been that Rob Gronkowski is the Tight End to roster in Tampa Bay. Rob Gronkowski looked much closer to the Gronkowski we had seen in New England before his retirement than the one we saw this past season. He was used much more similarly too. Despite being in a pretty stacked Tight End room with Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, Gronkowski was on the field for 87% of the snaps and was the third most-targeted tight end in the league week 1. This, of course, came in a big matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Gronkowski very may well return to being a legitimate TE1.

Verdict: Buy

Mark Ingram, Running Back, Houston Texans

Mark Ingram had an exciting day this weekend. While many expected the Houston Texans to be the first team to go 0-17, they immediately dispelled that with a 37-21 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. This should not change your interpretation of the Texans as a team. If this was the only time that they are running out a game this season, I would not be surprised. As a result, I think this will very likely be Ingram’s peak in carries and overall value. It was nice to see that he was used on the goal line as that will give him some value in certain weeks, but I think the Texans will be forced to pass due to circumstance more often than not. While Ingram was the RB1 in attempts, this is a much muddier backfield than his attempts imply. Ingram was on the field for less than half of the team’s snaps. He will get very little if any passing down work going forward, and given I suspect that they will be forced into passing situations more often than not, this is Ingram’s peak in fantasy football.

Verdict: Sell

Elijah Mitchell, Running Back, San Francisco 49ers

Are we going to see a true bellcow in San Francisco? Short answer, I doubt it. Elijah Mitchell got almost all of the carries once Raheem Mostert went down with injury. The other active back, JaMycal Hasty, had just one rushing attempt and one reception while Mitchell had 19 carries. Fellow rookie running back Trey Sermon, who was drafted above Mitchell, was a healthy scratch in the contest. So why don’t I think Mitchell is the real deal? Special teams. No evidence, to me, indicates that Hasty was over Sermon because of his rushing ability. That to me was a special teams decision. I feel very confident in saying Sermon will be the RB2 next week. I expect Mitchell to remain the starting back, but I would imagine he will be much more similar in useage to what you expected out of Mostert than what you got out of Mitchell last week. Mitchell and Sermon could end up being reminiscent of Mostert and Wilson in regards to a timeshare. Timeshares like this are typically not good for fantasy football, outside of bye weeks and as a fringe flex option.

Verdict: Sell

Honorable Mentions

Sterling Shepard: Buy, Jared Cook: Buy, K.J. Osborn: Buy, Christian Kirk: Hold/Sell

Falling

Ezekiel Elliott, Running Back, Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliot had a tough outing last Thursday. The star running back had just 13 touches. Honestly, though, I’m not concerned. Anyone who goes back to watch the film will quickly be drawn to one thing. Vita Vea is an absolute menace. Vea, combined with Ndamukong Suh and a pair of stud linebackers makes this Buccaneers defense incredibly tough to run against. The game script also rarely favored running for the Cowboys, as they were either down or in a close contest with the Buccaneers for much of the game. Finally, elite guard Zack Martin was missing from the lineup. So many things were going against Elliott that it’s hard for me to worry about him going forward. He played more snaps than any other running back in the league last week, and was on the field a very healthy 84% of the snaps.

Verdict: Buy

Ronald Jones II, Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ronald Jones does concern me. Lets cut to the chase. He looked good for his first three carries. Nothing incredibly notable, but looked solid. On his fourth carry, though, Ronald Jones fumbled. And that was his entire outing. Four carries, 14 yards. Completely benched after the fumble. While Arians has come out and said that Jones will return to his normal role next week, I’m still concerned. The Fournette and Jones battle was already tight, so it would have been a good situation for Fournette to truly takeover. Thankfully, he also contributed to a turnover. This is a situation that will need to shake out over the next few weeks. I’m not confident enough to buy Jones, but he’s a young and talented back. Do not drop him in dynasties, and I don’t think it’s time to drop him in most fantasy football redrafts yet either.

Verdict: Hold

James Robinson, Running Back, Jacksonville Jaguars

The James Robinson situation, unfortunately, is very similar to the Ronald Jones one. While I’m worried about a back overtaking him, in this situation Carlos Hyde, I don’t think many fantasy owners will be willing to take him from you in a trade that returns any real value. Robinson is also a young talented back, and as such can’t be dropped in dynasty and you would like to avoid dropping him in redraft if possible. Hyde and Robinson were neck and neck in touches overall, but Robinson did have the majority of the snaps at 63%. That being said, Duke Johnson is biding his time and learning the offense. As of now, Robinson has kept the passing down work. If Johnson takes that, Robinson may not have much value left. The game script certainly didn’t favor a rushing attack in week 1, so maybe this was a fluke game. But Hyde led in carries and genuinely ran well. This may be a running back group to stay away from in fantasy football. Sell if someone is willing to offer his previous value, but otherwise you probably need to hold.

Verdict: Hold

Honorable Mentions

Trey Sermon: Buy, Marquez Callaway: Buy, Mike Gesicki: Hold

Enjoy this content? Check out other Belly Up Fantasy Football Posts here. Also, follow my Twitter @lheureuxadam for more fantasy football and general football content from me as well as an update on the next Dynasty RB Ranking.

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