Sunday, May 19, 2024

Fantasy Football

Finding the Next Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp didn’t just come out of nowhere. Kupp was a product of talent and early morning work with Matthew Stafford. He was a strong WR2 in fantasy in 2020 and was the WR4 in 2019. This article highlights all the significant jumps that led to Kupp’s ascension and finds examples of guys who could follow that same path. These guys are going to be mid-rounders but might become WR1s and league winners in 2022.

Consistency Leads to Growth

Kupp has been one of the most consistent players in the past three years. He averaged at least 120 targets and 90 receptions from 2019-to 2020. Then he erupted this year for 191 targets 145 receptions (second-most in a single season). Consistency is one of the strongest staples of a good player, and anyone can have a breakout year and fall off the very next. The best receivers in this league consistently produce at a high level. Look at guys like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, and Antonio Brown. These guys had consistent numbers every year, but produced in specific statistical categories in their best years.

When a team instills the faith in players to start targeting them consistently, that’s when seasons like this can happen. For fantasy managers, consistency creates a favorable floor for their players. Kupp used that consistency to build a breakout season. These three guys have been consistent the last two years and could provide a big upside in fantasy football.

Player/MetricTargets (’20/’21)Recs (’20/’21)Yards (’20/’21)TDs (’20/’21)
Brandon Aiyuk96/8460/56748/8265/5
Tee Higgins108/11067/74908/1,0916/6
Chase Claypool109/10562/59873/8609/2
Stats used are from Pro Football Reference

Brandon Aiyuk


Brandon Aiyuk
SnapsTargetsRecsYardsTDs
Weeks 1-8 avgs44.253.31.8620.14.14
Weeks 9-18* avgs59.666.14.368.5.4
Pace* N/A103.773.11,164.56.8
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference

Brandon Aiyuk had a rough start to his season, but the day before Aiyuk’s turnaround. Shanahan spoke about his young receiver, “So, for Brandon, especially these past couple of weeks, he’s looked like the player we envisioned when we drafted him in terms of he’s got a lot of physical tools but he also has a mindset. And he’s a young guy who’s finally understanding what it means to be a pro and approach every practice like,”. I put together a table to show everyone how good Aiyuk has been since Week Nine. Aiyuk was on pace for a WR2 season based on the ten games he averaged almost 60 snaps on offense.

The potential of having rookie Trey Lance at the helm for the next 5-10 years opens up the offense quite a bit. Lance and Aiyuk had a connection in the Niners’ win over the Texans, collecting four catches on six targets for 94 yards. Showing his deep ball presence, and with Lance’s 13 deep ball attempts in two and a half games, look for him to be eager to get Aiyuk the ball deep and in space. Aiyuk will likely remain a mid-round pick, with Deebo Samuel being the talk of the town. That sounds like a good pick-up to me.

Tee Higgins

Kyle Ross-Getty Images

Tee Higgins has a lot going for him in fantasy football. He’s averaged 109 targets in his first two seasons and has consistently finished inside the top 30 WRs. Many thought he would take a back seat to running mate Ja’Marr Chase this year, but it was quite the opposite. Higgins got better in his second season, with the Bengals seeing an increase in targets, receptions, and yards while still missing three games. The second-year wide receiver has been an excellent WR2 for fantasy managers averaging 15.7 fantasy PPG, 12th most for receivers in PPR formats.

More than just Higgins’s consistency and growth make him a big-time buy. Joe Burrow is a big reason to hold onto, draft, or trade for Tee Higgins. Joey B has an excellent connection with his receiving core and will have Higgins for the next two to three years.

Chase Claypool

This season, Chase Claypool took a dip in touchdown production from nine in 2020 to two in 2021. Some questions of maturity and lack of growth have the fantasy community, down-trending Claypool. That’s fair, but look at Claypool as a high upside player that you can snag in the later rounds. One guy I would compare him to is Mike Williams. Before last year, Williams was consistently a 40+ reception receiver who had the deep ball potential to have a 10 TD season and a 1,000-yard year.

Claypool matched his receptions and yards total from his stellar rookie season. The touchdowns were the drop-off that no one should expect to continue. Claypool is an essential part of the Steelers deep ball attack, going long 21 times in 2021. One of his significant detriments this year was his seven drops, but that’s something that could be fixed; just ask his Steelers teammate Diontae Johnson. Overall, Claypool has an undeniable talent, and the Steelers need to consider who will be the long-term replacement for Ben Roethlisberger. Theoretically, Pittsburgh will go after someone who can throw a nice deep ball like a Jameis Winston. Adding Winston would make Claypool’s offseason stock rise as that pairing may lead to numerous big yardage touchdowns. Claypool’s upside makes him an excellent buy this season, as managers sour on him.

Slot Snaps

Cooper Kupp lines up everywhere for the Rams, making him one of the most valuable focal points of their offense. Kupp’s slot snap percentage has averaged out to 57.6 over the past three seasons and has been a significant reason for him accruing 449 targets. For Kupp, he has caught 73% of his targets, and lining up in the slot 57% of the time helped. Slot snaps are crucial snaps in fantasy for wide receivers because it gives them more short space opportunities to either score or accrue yards. They are especially critical in PPR leagues, where players can get the point for each reception. These guys have gotten more involved in their team’s offense by lining up in the slot, and with more opportunities, both could become the next Cooper Kupp.

Player/MetricSlot %Fantasy points (half)
Marquise Brown18.6180.8
CeeDee Lamb32.3193.3
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference

Marquise Brown

Patrick Smith-Getty images

Marquise Brown had one of the most under-the-radar seasons in 2021. He had season highs in targets, receptions, and yards. So what was behind this growth from a talented receiver? One thing that stood out to me was the Ravens shortened up his routes and let him use his speed and agility in the open field. This year Brown had an ADOT of 10.5 yards; this enabled him to catch more passes and become the cog this offense has wanted. Brown coming out of the slot has allowed him to use his speed against slower linebackers and safeties.

Overall, Brown became a serious weapon this year, and the addition of Rashod Bateman didn’t hinder his growth. If anything, it helped the Ravens realize they were utilizing Brown improperly. While Ravens took a different approach to Brown, they still gave him a career-high 27 deep targets. So Brown is going to be a big threat in this offense going forward and should be someone in the middle rounds to consider, especially after finishing WR23.

CeeDee Lamb

The fantasy community is nuts if they decide that CeeDee Lamb is a sell this year. This is the guy to go grab in every draft, trade for in every league. Lamb is a beast; he was the Cowboys swiss army knife. He ran the ball for 76 yards, he runs some of the crispest routes and is a beast in the open field. Lamb was a YAC man coming out of Oklahoma and hasn’t disappointed in the NFL, averaging 5.6 yards in 2021. He lined up all over the field, including lining up on 32.3 percent of his snaps in the slot. Emphasizing how much of a multi-purpose threat he was, Lamb was also a deep threat, getting targeted 21 times.

Some other news that should bring Lamb’s interest up is the possibility of Amari Cooper‘s departure. The scuttle bug around the league is that the Cowboys have until March 5th to get out of Cooper’s guaranteed 20 million dollar contract. This opens the door for Lamb to be the undeniable “alpha” in Dallas and with Dak Prescott locked up, and this should lead to a significant jump in year three for the star wideout.

Second Season Growth

Cooper Kupp saw a drastic growth in his second full season in the league. His first year, he started six games and was targeted 94 times. In his third year (his second season ended with ACL surgery) Kupp had 40 more targets and doubled his touchdowns. He took a significant step forward as the starting receiver in the Rams offense. These two guys started off as secondary pieces in their offense as rookies and have taken a major step forward in year two.

Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman had his coming-out party in 2021. After a mediocre rookie season Pittman, doubled his targets, receptions, and yards while scoring five more touchdowns. What made Pittman’s numbers exceptional was his games against some of the best corners. In Week two against Jalen Ramsey, Pittman showed up big with eight catches for 123 yards and 20 fantasy points. He showed his exceptional ability to run the full route tree and become a threat at every level. One of his best plays came against the Ravens Marlon Humphrey. While he was double covered, Pittman made a phenomenal contested catch and broke a tackle to score a game-tying touchdown.

Pittman’s an excellent mix of balance, athletic talent, and fight. This upcoming season should be promising for the Colts’ new “alpha” receiver. Ty Hilton is most likely out for 2022 and will open the door for Pittman to enjoy an expanded role on this offense. Pittman showed enough in his WR15 performance (half PPR) that we should have eyes on him going into 2022.

Michael PittmanTargetsRecsYardsTDsFantasy points
20206140503178.9
2021129881,0826194.6

Darnell Mooney

Darnell Mooney is another future “alpha” and one of the most exciting receivers to emerge this season. He is another guy that was used all over the field, rushing for 32 yards and a touchdown. He also lined up 32.6 percent of the time in the slot and had an ADOT of 10.6 yards. He’s a good route running technician with some quick feet and excellent burst. His connection with Justin Fields grew stronger as the season went on, and with Allen Robinson leaving in the offseason, it’s hard not to be hyped about Mooney’s potential.

Mooney is someone who won’t be cheap this year, but if you don’t grab him this year, he might be impossible to acquire later on. He has all the talent to become the next electric star, and you will be able to get him in the mid-rounds. Go out and grab him on all formats because that potential will be Tyreek Hill Esque if Fields and the Bears are halfway decent.

Darnell MooneyTargetsRecsYardsTDsFantasy point (half)
202098616314121.6
2021140811,0554179.2

Conclusion

 Cooper Kupp is a hell of a talent and was a guy that was in the mid-rounds of fantasy drafts. While next year Kupp will be at the top of the draft, we need to find our next Cooper Kupp. This article was meant to show the little things that we saw with Kupp and trying to find someone that could replicate his ascension to the WR1 position in fantasy football.

If you liked the article and wanted more content, you can find me at www.bellyupfantasysports.com. You can also find me on Twitter @Semtexmex93.