In my previous article, I gave you five picks from ADP 100-149 where I really saw breakout potential. I’m back again with more for you. We’re continuing deeper into the draft now, looking at picks 150-199.
This is where we’re going to find those guys that really separate us from our competition. This chunk of the draft is just as much about building depth as it is about finding upside. It is about finding the fantasy draft value picks, guys who have the real upside that many of your league mates might let slide.

By this point, most of the “sexy” and “sure thing” picks are gone, in terms of hype. The upside here is that you’ve reached the point of the draft where you can start to take a bit of risk. I’m not saying that you should be reckless. Particularly if you’re in a deep league, you may disagree with some of my picks.
And just as in my previous article, you should absolutely take your team composition into account before simply following my advice blindly. That’s enough words of warning, however. Let’s get on with the show.

ADP 150-159: Tommy Edman

If you passed on Danny Santana, Tommy Edman is another great utility option. He carried a .850 OPS along with a WRC+ of 123 in just over half a season. That’s long enough for us to get an idea of the sort of player he can be over a full season. A full season of Edman could be explosive.

Obviously, there’s some risk as to where he’s going to fit, and if he can keep it up over a full season. The bright side is that he can play 2B, 3B, SS, or OF. Depending on how Matt Carpenter‘s season goes, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Edman playing a lot of 3B. Projections show him maybe getting 500 AB this season, but I think they’re low. If he plays anywhere near the way he played last year, he’s getting in the lineup. There’s a risk, but there’s a hell of a reward here. Don’t believe the projections on him; they’re all based on him not getting consistent time. He’s part of an aging lineup. His time is almost guaranteed to come.

And also: of Carpenter, Wong, and DeJong, Edman beat all of them in wOBA, WRC+, and only Wong beat him in WAR, 3.7-3.2. At the moment, MLB.com also lists Edman at the top of the depth chart for third. It’s hard not to believe in this kid as the real deal.

ADP 160-169: David Price

This is hardly a hot take, but David Price is the real winner of the Betts trade. Pick him up, and you might be as well. Yes, he’s 34 years old and in the autumn of his career. Yes, there are some injury concerns. But just like with our prior pick, there’s so much upside here. He’s moving to a pitcher-friendly environment. Price is now backed by an even MORE loaded lineup, which can only help his counting stats.

But also, last year, he wasn’t bad. No, he wasn’t bad AT ALL. His FIP and xFIP were both lower than his ERA, as was his SIERA. He didn’t get hit abnormally hard. His HR/FB rate can be explained entirely by a juiced ball. He averaged over 10 K/9, at least in part due to hitters selling out for power. While I expect that to drop a bit, all projections still see him averaging over 9 K/9. He still has three pitches that rate positive values on Fangraphs. Price still has a lot left in the tank, and he’s available at a discount because of his injury history. Swipe him NOW.

ADP 170-179:German Marquez

So yeah, there’s a danger here. I’m well aware of what I’m suggesting. THAT BEING SAID, he was nasty on the road. He also has NEVER posted a losing record for the season, despite the burden of Coors. His supporting stats (SIERA, xFIP, and FIP) are all lower than his ERA, and his home ERA was more than a run higher than in 2018. What changed? His HR rate jumped from 15.7 to 20.1, which can pretty much be blamed on the juiced ball. He still got the K’s (more than 1 per inning). He’s still got the stuff. He’s a groundball pitcher, which is an absolute necessity in Coors.

Obviously, you can’t start him blindly at home. There are times when you’re going to need to sit him. But his curve was nasty and his fastball was good. If he can regain control over his slider, he could be a dark horse in Cy Young talk, provided the curse of Coors doesn’t bite him too hard. There’s a ton of hidden upside here, and you really shouldn’t sleep on it if you’re looking for pitching.

ADP 180-189: Kenta Maeda

Kenta Maeda has every chance to win 20 games and finally establish himself as the unquestioned #1 pitcher in the AL Central. He is finally free of the Dodgers and their constant shuffling of the rotation. He no longer has to worry about a team limiting his innings purely to prevent him from reaching easily-attainable contract benchmarks.

He goes into what is almost certainly the weakest division in all of baseball, getting a chance to dominate punchless lineups from Detroit and Kansas City. He joins a team that needs a veteran presence just as much as a potential innings-eater. And while Maeda has never been known for going deep into games, much of that can be blamed squarely on Big Blue.

He joins a team with one of the most dangerous lineups in the AL, which certainly won’t hurt his chances of getting a few extra W’s in the column. Plus, he excels at inducing soft contact. He got it in a 22% rate last year, despite not being a ground ball pitcher. In an already light hitting division, this is a recipe for success. Draft him with confidence, because he is definitely a fantasy draft value pick.

ADP 190-199 Joc Pederson

If there’s one thing that’s clear, it’s that Joc will not be on the Dodgers by the end of 2020. This is a good thing. It becomes an even better thing if he lands in a more hitter-friendly environment. Joc is not without his warts; nobody nearing the 200th pick is blemish-free. You will want to sit him versus lefties, just as we always have. But what makes him a value pick is his innate ability to murder right-handers, which leaves him on the big side of any platoon.

A .850-.900 OPS at pick 199? 30-35 HR potential at pick 200? Count me in. Put him in a better environment for hitting, free from the distractions of acrimonious disputes with ownership and on the edge of free agency? He could have an absolute monster year. Look at what he does when he’s unhappy.

And those were my five. I’d love to hear from you guys in the comment section.

My next article will see us wading even deeper, where we start to approach the dregs and the flyers, and things become more murky. (Picks 200-249)

Follow me on Twitter @ Viking_Chuck

Looking for something else to read? Check out this great article by Bellyup’s own Mike Acree about Albert Pujols.