The NFL season is finally here. No longer do we need to bet on baseball day games praying for the -1.5 to cover. The days of watching soccer games (I am a fan but I understand that it can be a bit boring) and explaining to people what on earth a spread of -1.75 means, is finally over. Those days are finished. Now we have good old fashioned American Football.

Last season was so difficult to bet on spreads in my opinion, and I think it was for one reason. No fans. Now, all over America, fans can find their seats and enjoy a hot dog and a bud heavy for $20. They can point and scream at the refs in anger; “Hey stripes, we would have a great game if you actually watched it!” Now we get to sweat out spreads and hope that we don’t get screwed over. I still remember losing my bet on Washington +6.5 years back versus Kansas City. Some bets you just can’t forget. 

There are moments where you can be on the other side of the spectrum. Nothing captures that other side more than the infamous “Hail Murray” to DeAndre Hopkins  in the endzone. Having the cards cover that game was incredible. Tears of joy and tears of pure sadness running down the cheeks of gamblers everywhere. 

MURRAY TO HOPKINS HAIL MARY FOR THE WIN pic.twitter.com/EglNEuWZ0m

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) November 16, 2020

The NFL is back and I am going to try my best to help you make money. Whether that means you ride with me when I am hot or fade me when I am cold. I won’t take offense if you disagree with my picks but one thing is for sure. I will give you the NFL gambling content you deserve. As a disclaimer, all the lines I am getting for these games are on Bovada, so if my line is different from yours, my apologies. Now, for the good part. Let’s make some locks.

Broncos @ Giants: Pick Broncos -3

The first game on the board is the Broncos versus the Giants in New York. I love the Broncos in this spot. Last year I think they had a down year. The defense this year should be much more improved with the additions of Kyle Fuller and Patrick Surtain in the secondary, as well as getting a healthy Von Miller back to help out Bradley Chubb. They also added Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater from the Carolina Panthers. One of my favorite statistics for Bridgewater is that in his career he is 35-13-1 ATS. He just knows how to cover.

Looking at the Giants I just don’t believe they are healthy enough right now with Barkley, Golladay, and Engram all on the injury report. I also do not trust Daniel Jones at all. He is a turnover machine and in 27 games (26 starts) he has 39 total turnovers. He is an accident waiting to happen. Give me the Broncos.

Jets @ Panthers: Pick Panthers -4

A revenge game for Sam Darnold as he welcomes his old team, the New York Jets, into his home field in Carolina. I’m my opinion, the Panthers have a solid offense with weapons like Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson, and D.J. Moore. They are run by Offensive Coordinator Kyle Brady who I honestly believe will be a head coach next year.

The Jets have a rookie Quarterback under center in Zach Wilson. He’s had his highlights in the preseason. I just really don’t think this is the spot for him. The Panthers also have a sneaky good defense and added secondary help with Jaycee Horn. I think Darnold has a very good game and I believe the Panthers will win by at least a touchdown.

Cardinals @ Titans: Pick Over 52

I love the over in this game. I’m not even going to look at the number and just take it. Maybe a terrible pick but I just love the firepower on both sides. Cardinals have a great offense with Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds, and DeAndre Hopkins. They were also a borderline top 10 offense in scoring last year and I personally believe they would have been top 10 if Kyler didn’t have nagging injuries in the second half of the season.

The Titans have one of the most criminally underrated offenses in the league. Last year they averaged 30.7 PPG and were 4th overall in the league. Ryan Tannehill gets disrespected way too much. I think he’s a great Quarterback (great for fantasy football specifically). Add one of the best backs in the league, Derrick Henry, and a top five receiver duo, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, and you have one of the most dynamic offenses in football. Give me over 52 here.

Dolphins @ Patriots: Pick Patriots -3

The Patriots are at home versus the Dolphins and Bill Belichick is ready to prove the haters wrong this year. The Patriots had a down year last year but they completely revamped their roster. Adding key pieces to both the offense and defense with players such as Trent Brown, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Matt Judon, and Kyle Van Noy.

The most important piece of the puzzle though is rookie Mac Jones under center. Mac is ready for this moment. I promise you. Bill would not start a rookie if he was even a little hesitant and Mac showed a lot in training camp earning the job. Belichick in week 1 is a lock and he will be ready to have a revenge tour this season and prove all the people who believe Brady was the sole reason for his success wrong. Not even going to talk about the Dolphins here. Just give me the Patriots -3 and this is my favorite bet of the week.

Browns @ Chiefs: Pick Browns +6

I am not going to lie here, I have been a Baker Mayfield hater in the past. I will admit though, last year he proved me wrong. He went into Pittsburgh and killed a rival team almost ending the Big Ben era. He then went into Kansas City and battled the whole game and lost in the end but only by five points. They have a very stout defense and are arguably the best running team in football with Chubb and Hunt. Baker has always had the motivation to prove everyone wrong but even this year people are still questioning him. 

“Let’s be honest. For 25 years at QB, Cleveland has been driving a Pinto. Sometimes they took a bike to work. Their standards are low. Enter Baker.”

— @ColinCowherd pic.twitter.com/ynUgrfTeVL

— Herd w/Colin Cowherd (@TheHerd) September 9, 2021

Colin Cowherd is the biggest Baker hater in all of media. I think Baker is going to propel to a top ten QB status this year. I really love the defense too led by Myles Garrett who is one of the top picks for DPOY. Yes, I know the Chiefs have Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and many other weapons. I just think -6 is a lot in this game. I expect it to be close and for these teams to meet again down the line. Give me the Browns +6. 

Final NFL Picks

Broncos -3

Panthers -4

Titans/Cards Over 52

Pats -3

Browns +6

Good luck and ride or fade!

For more content regarding gambling and fantasy insights in general follow me on Twitter! For more sports and fantasy content follow Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports or check out the Belly Up Fantasy Sports site!

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