Monday, December 23, 2024

Betting

March Madness: Value Picks for 2021 Tournament

The 2021 Season Recap

It was a long season but we finally made it. It is officially time for March Madness. Get out your brackets and use a pencil I promise after reading this you will be making some edits. This year was dominated by two conferences in particular the Big 12 and Big Ten. Teams like Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio State proved to be the class of the Big Ten. However they were not just top heavy also having teams such as Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State.

Then in the Big 12 you have Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia, Texas, and Oklahoma State at the top with Oklahoma and Texas Tech not far behind. The SEC has some teams in there as well with Alabama, Tennessee, and Arkansas all having solid years. Then there is the juggernaut that is Gonzaga having an undefeated season this year and looking to do the impossible. The last time a team went undefeated and won the tournament was the Indiana Hoosiers during the 1975-1976 season.

Tired of Busted Brackets?

Everyone needs to just acknowledge it. If you are doing a March Madness Bracket for money then you are gambling. There it is out in the open. Now making a bracket for money shows that you are interested in winning the big bucks! I think we can all agree though that winning March Madness is hard and we all get our hopes up only to be taken back to reality.

This is not to say do not make a bracket by any means! Go ahead, make it root for your alma mater, favorite mascot, favorite player etc. But if you are interested in making money in March the key is futures. I have picked out the best value picks to win the tournament.

For this format I decided to choose a value pick for a one seed through a four seed. Determining which book I was going to use was hard. After careful consideration I am using OddsShark’s book for odds in this exercise. Please do not get mad at me if odds are different on your book. Also just because I did not pick your team as a value pick does not mean they do not have a chance! Anything can happen in March.

March Madness 1 Seed: Illinois +550

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The Masked Man Ayo Dosunmu and Illinois look to make some noise this March and bring the hardware home

Personally this is my favorite pick to win the tournament. They have two All-Americans in guard Ayo Dosunmu and big man Kofi Cockburn. Ayo is averaging around 20 points 6 assists and 5 rebounds a game while Kofi is averaging close to 18 points and 10 rebounds a game. Kofi and Ayo are arguably the best duo in the country and have given Illinois fans lots to look forward to this year. Their region does not seem impossible and honestly in my opinion the hardest team they have to play would be Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State.

Illinois are battle tested and their resume speaks for itself with regards to wins. These wins include Iowa twice, Ohio State twice and Michigan once. In their last fifteen games they are an impressive 14-1 and three of those wins came without Ayo. Those three games included a 23 point blowout over Michigan. Overall this team has it all and personally are the only one seed I have in my final four with the Zags (region for Zags is weak in my opinion). A great value bet to win it all especially if they get past Cade I do not see many teams coming close to this red hot team.

March Madness 2 Seed: Ohio State +2800

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Duane Washington and the Buckeyes taking on Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament

The 2 seeds were a lot harder to determine. The four 2 seeds were Ohio State, Houston, Iowa, and Alabama. I went with Ohio State for a couple reasons. First they have two really strong scorers in guard Duane Washington getting 16 ppg and forward E.J. Liddell averaged the same. Why love the value on this team is simple. After losing four in a row many people were calling Ohio State frauds which was fair. Entering the Big-Ten tournament there were many people doubting Ohio State.

However, wins over Purdue and Michigan helped them get a place in the championship and an OT loss to Illinois which is nothing to be ashamed of. The 1 seed in their conference is Baylor and I am not fully convinced of their ability in the tournament. Ohio State has a great resume and been battle tested all year and with their odds being that high why not take a stab at them to win the whole damn thing.

March Madness 3 Seed: Kansas +6000

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Kansas Jayhawks forward David McCormack should be available for the tournament after missing games for Covid-19 reasons

I know what you are thinking. Kansas? Don’t they have Covid-19 problems? Well yes this is true but reinforcements are coming headlined by forward David McCormack. Kansas has had an up and down season but going into the Big-12 tournament they were 8-1 in their last 9. They had impressive wins over Baylor, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech, and only lost to Texas by three points!

Sadly they had to forfeit their next game against Texas in the tournament because of Covid-19. Looking at their roster they have 5 guys who average around 10 ppg or more. Bill Self has done well in the tournament before including a win in 2008. I also do not believe that Iowa is worthy of that 2 seed and that Kansas would beat them in that sweet sixteen matchup. The best part with odds at +6000 it would be criminal to not take a stab at this perennial blue blood. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN MARCH!

March Madness 4 Seed: Oklahoma State +2200

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Cade Cunningham is often referred to as the best player in the country, but can he lead Oklahoma State to the promise land?

Finally we have Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State. Cade was first team All-American and his stats were incredible. He averaged 19.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.4 SPG, and shot 41.2% from the 3-point line, making it obvious why he is the favorite to be the first overall pick. I like this pick a lot because there is always that one team in the tournament that has a great guard take them on a run. I believe Cade can be that guy and bring Oklahoma State far as he will always be the best player on the court.

They are 6-2 in their last 8 however this includes wins over Oklahoma and West Virginia twice, Texas Tech once, and a win over Baylor in the Big-12 tournament semi-finals. All impressive wins that has helped propel Oklahoma State as one of the top teams in the tournament. They have good guard play and depth with six players averaging 8 ppg or more.

This is my favorite VALUE pick. I say that because at +2200 odds they have the best player in the country and whenever you have that advantage you can win any game. The only thing stopping Oklahoma State is Illinois in the Sweet 16. However if they win that expect their value to go way down going into the Elite 8. They will be considered to be one of the favorites from that point to win the tournament.

Cade Cunningham is primed to make a Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier like run this March.

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