Today begins the Eastern Conference Finals, and we have the Miami Heat facing off with the Boston Celtics. Both teams have been among the best in the league for the entirety of the season, so this should make for a great series. Today’s betting report will look at their play against one another, throughout the playoffs so far, and the season as a whole. The goal, as always, for the betting report, is to give you the information, tell you where I stand, and let you choose from there. Let’s get into it!

The Spread

Miami is currently a -2.0 favorite, but both them and the Celtics have almost identical records this season ATS, so we need to dig a little deeper to find the best place to put our units. As a home favorite, Miami is 22-20 which is not great, but it is not horrible either. Interestingly enough, though, they are 16-9 ATS – the second-best record in the league with a rest advantage. The most interesting trend that I found was their 4-0 record ATS when having four or more days of rest. This is the main factor that I think comes into play tonight. Miami is well-rested, they’ve had almost a week off and Boston is coming off of a very emotional Game 7 win. Our official prediction tonight is Miami -2.0. Butler has played great throughout the playoffs and that coupled with their ATS records lead me to make this play.

Looking at the Over/Under, which is 204, I am leaning on the under. Both teams are in the top three defenses in the league and rely heavily on their defense to guide them to wins. It is worth mentioning that Boston hits the under at 51.1 percent this year and Miami hits it at 45.7 percent, and even with Miami’s numbers trending over, I think that with their defense Boston will be facing more contested looks, as opposed to the Bucks who were very drop-heavy in their coverage, which allowed for more open perimeter looks.

Prop Plays of the Day

• P.J. Tucker over 5.5 rebounds: This play is +114 on Fanduel Sportsbook and Tucker will see more action in this series to try and limit the duo of Tatum and Brown. Tucker had eight and nine rebounds in the last two games and should hit similar numbers if he avoids foul trouble. This combined with Boston’s rebounding woes should bode well for Tucker.
• Bam Adebayo over 8.5 rebounds: The Celtics are sporting the 10th best rebounding rate throughout the playoffs, and much like our Tucker Prop, I think Adebayo can take advantage of the Celtics and their rebounding issues, especially with Robert Williams not being at full strength.

Good teams win. Great teams cover.

Junebug, probably

Remember to please bet responsibly, and bet consistently with your sizing – it is the best way to increase and manage your bankroll! If you have a problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER for help

If you enjoy my NBA betting report, be sure to follow me on Twitter for more sports betting content, and check out Belly Up Sports for other great sports content!