Good afternoon everyone, and welcome back to another NBA betting report! Today is the first game of the Western Conference Finals, where the Dallas Mavericks take on the Golden State Warriors in Oakland. This series has generated a lot of buzz around the NBA, particularly because the Dallas Mavericks shocked the Phoenix Suns on the road in Game 7 to win the series. This shocking series win begs the question: Do the Mavericks have a shot? To be honest, I think they have a chance. But we’re gamblers, so our main concern is can the Mavericks cover? You bet they can.

The Spread

Currently, the Warriors are -5.5 on most major sportsbooks and most of the public money is on the home team. However, I am taking the Mavericks +5.5 tonight. For the entirety of the NBA season, the Mavericks were the third-best team ATS, with a record of 56-37-2 whereas the Warriors were 46-43-4. Conversely, the Mavericks boast a league-best 9-4 record ATS and are 24-18 ATS as an underdog. In every scenario, the Mavericks are covering at over 50 percent– this is great for bettors looking to find some value and edge in this series. The emergence of Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie as reliable scoring threats, along with Luka solidifying himself as a top-five player in the world, gives Dallas the firepower to stay in the series and make the Warriors guard Luka more honestly. The key to this game, and ultimately the series, are the roll players for Dallas.

Over/Under

The line for this game is at 214.5 and I am taking the under on this. Under 214.5 is the play because both Dallas and Golden State were among the league leaders in hitting the under this season. Dallas hit the under at 61.3 percent, which is a league-best, and the Warriors hit it at 53.9 percent for the season. Looking at how frequently both teams hit the under this season, combined with Dallas hitting the under at 61.5 percent for the playoffs and the Warriors hitting at 57.1 percent as a home favorite, I love the under. With both teams being two of the best defenses in the NBA, we should see a lot of low-scoring affairs and should be prepared to take the under in future betting reports for this series.

It’s not about pride or ego. It’s only about money.

Mike McDermott

If you would like to check out player props for today, take a look at NBA Best Bets of the Day: May 18th. To stay up to date with me and all my other related content, be sure to follow me on Twitter and check out Belly Up Sports for other great sports content. Remember to bet responsibly and if you have a problem please call 1-800-GAMBLER for help.