Monday, December 23, 2024

Fantasy Football, Featured

NFC East Pre-Draft Fantasy Needs

NFC East Champion Cowboys well need to replace a few pieces along their top-ranked offensive line.

We’re rapidly nearing the end of this quiet period of the NFL offseason, between the “legal tampering” period of free agency and the three-day extravaganza of the NFL Draft. It’s the “eye of the storm.” Between now and the start of the 2022 NFL Draft on April 28, we’re going division-by-division to look at what moves teams still need to make that will have an impact on 2022’s fantasy rosters. We’ve already touched on the AFC North, NFC North, and AFC East. The NFL’s creative geography notwithstanding, this edition of our virtual tour remains on the eastern seaboard as we take a look at the NFC East, in order of 2021 final standings.

Note: All 2021 fantasy point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted.

Dallas Cowboys: NFC East Champions

CeeDee Lamb no longer has to contend with Amari Cooper for targets from Dak Prescott.
CeeDee Lamb running away from defenders has become an increasingly familiar sight in the NFC East.

Of all the possible sources for angst in the football Taj Mahal that is Jerryworld, the Dallas offensive line doesn’t often come up in conversation. Seemingly a constant strength since the Jimmy Johnson era, the ‘Boys’ line is almost always known as the biggest, baddest, and best in the business. Yet, despite coming off a season in which Dallas ranked first overall in Pro Football Focus’s offensive line rankings, worries abound in Arlington over the status of a once-mighty group whose instability threatens to undermine the Cowboys’ season before it even begins.

Two starters from last year’s unit, Connor Williams and La’el Collins, are gone. Starting center Tyler Biadasz returns but was the lowest graded member of last year’s starting five. And while Tyron Smith is still one of the game’s best when healthy, that “when healthy” is a MAJOR qualifying statement. Smith hasn’t played a full season since 2015 and logged just 13 total games the last two seasons combined. If the offensive line is the identity of the Dallas Cowboys, they’re in the midst of a full-blown identity crisis.

Add to that the loss of former top wideout Amari Cooper and last year’s number three Cedrick Wilson. By the way, Randy Gregory (the top-scoring Dallas defensive lineman in fantasy last season) bolted for Denver. Oh, and did we mention they’re on the lookout for a new kicker, too? The needs are many, the cap dollars are dwindling, and there are only so many draft picks for them to use.

Cowboys’ Bottom Line

So, fantasy-wise, the needs are simple. Re-signing Michael Gallup eventually leaves Dallas with a strong top-two in their receiver room. Gallup is coming off a Week 17 ACL-tear, however. Another strong option at receiver would boost Dak Prescott‘s fortunes, as well as take some pressure off star CeeDee Lamb (WR19). It would also provide additional cover for Dalton Schultz coming off a somewhat-surprising TE3 campaign. Coach Mike McCarthy loves him some three-receiver sets, and would probably prefer a stronger third option than James Washington.

Greg Zuerlein‘s absence leaves the Cowboys with a hole at the kicker position. Legatron wasn’t exactly automatic last season but was still a useable fantasy option at K13 on the year. In an offense with such high expectations as this, it’s worth monitoring the kicker situation. It’s a potential high-scoring environment for the right kicker, and I have my doubts about Chris Naggar. The remaining free-agent options aren’t particularly enticing. Perhaps Dallas will see fit to use one of their four picks in the fifth round to take a shot at the position.

In the end, as always, it will all boil down to the line for the Cowboys. A replacement at left guard is an absolute must. Right now Terence Steele is penciled in to take over for Collins at tackle. He might not be a complete disaster but is still a definite step down, inconsistent as Collins could be. Biadasz needs to show some improvement, or find himself on the hot seat. With Ezekiel Elliott (RB7) still talented but looking older by the day, Dallas needs a vintage Cowboy line. Look for Jerry Jones and son to make at least one addition to this group on draft day, and possibly after as well.

Philadelphia Eagles: Second Place NFC East

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles came up short in the NFC East race, but better things (and bigger fantasy scores) may await in 2022.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts (QB9) has fantasy managers convinced of his worth. Now he just needs to convince Howie Roseman, Nick Sirianni, and the rest of the City of Brotherly Love.

From a fantasy standpoint, I have to think the Philadelphia Eagles are one of the more frustrating teams to follow in the entire league. They have a very good offensive line (number four on PFF) and are ostensibly talented at the skill positions. Miles Sanders is an every-down-capable back running behind that line. Jalen Hurts is a mobile quarterback with a high floor. Dallas Goedert (TE8) is finally free of Zach Ertz, allowing each the freedom to chase fantasy points unencumbered by the other. And the receiver room seems to be a good mix of young, highly-drafted speed and still-young journeymen with some size. This was one of the top rushing offenses in the NFL in almost every metric. The passing game throws it deep (third in Air Yards/Pass Attempt) and accurately (sixth in On-Target Percentage.) What’s not to like?

And yet, nothing about this offense seems to strike the correct chords in fantasy. Yes, Hurts and Goedert are weekly starters with high-end upside. But Miles Sanders‘s injury woes almost completely tank his talent, to the point where he basically returns an inverted value based on the draft price you’re forced to pay to have him on your roster. The receiver group is wide, but not necessarily deep with playmakers. DeVonta Smith (WR30) looks like a guy, and we can’t write him off one way or another based on a rookie season. The rest of the room looks completely interchangeable in terms of talent and fantasy potential.

Eagles’ Bottom Line

The things that make this offense so tantalizing in fantasy are the same things that can make a general manager or fantasy manager’s head spin. The talent level is there with Sanders, so you’d be loathed to spend resources replacing him at an eminently replaceable position if you’re the Eagles. The rub is, there’s seemingly no way you can count on him being available for a whole season. They’ve spent two straight first-rounders on the wide receiver position, and are rumored to be looking in that direction again. (“Yes, Mr. Roseman? Matt Millen for you on line one…”) And regardless of accuracy and playmaking ability, the Eagles’ front office doesn’t seem convinced that Hurts is the quarterback of the future. (I would refer them to the Philadelphia receiving corps’ Dropped Pass Percentage of 5.5, tied for seventh in the league.)

There’s little question that wide receiver is a need for this team, but the question (as with the Patriots) is whether or not they’re capable of finding the right player. A bigger, rangy guy who could threaten the deep outside would open things up nicely for Smith and Goedert. That could move Smith to the WR2 level, while possibly offering WR3-4 value on his own. A healthy bell-cow running back (whether or not named Miles Sanders) would be awesome to see as well. It would also be nice to see a vote of confidence (for real, not lip-service) from the team for Hurts. Listen, Philly. At this point, you’re committed to him for the season. Go all-in for his second year in Nick Sirianni’s offense and see what you have. His fantasy managers will thank you for it.

Washington Commanders: Third Place NFC East

Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson are two of the more exciting fantasy options in the NFC East.
Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson are ready to #TakeCommand in the NFC East. Unfortunately, they work for Dan Snyder.

New year, new name, new scandal(s).

Same ol’ Washington.

There’s a new chant ringing through the nation’s capital, and we’re not talking about Fire Dan Snyder. The Washington Commanders are all set to take the field with all-new uniforms to go along with their all-new name and new (to them) quarterback. Sadly, ongoing investigations into the organization mean they’ll also be going into the season under the specter of a possible income-withholding scheme that could shake the team and the league to the core. Washington has not let that stop them from business as usual this offseason, however, which is not necessarily good news as far as fantasy managers’ hopes are concerned.

In a very Washington move (Sports? Politics? We comment, you decide!) the Commanders took a page out of the Chicago Bears’ book and traded for the completely underwhelming Carson Wentz (QB13) and his gigantic cap number. He’ll take over under center for the equally underwhelming but vastly-more-affordable Taylor Heinicke. Outside of that, the Commanders’ skill positions remain largely unchanged from last season, meaning fantasy managers should once again temper their expectations when drafting Washington players to their rosters.

Commanders’ Bottom Line

I would argue the Commanders need a quarterback, but Carson Wentz is at least serviceable and will cost Washington approximately the GNP of a Pacific island nation, so that’s not happening. The offensive line (number six on PFF) is a great foundation, even after the departures of guards Ereck Flowers and Brandon Scherff. Antonio Gibson (RB10) is a force when healthy, and J.D. McKissic has standalone value regardless of his depth chart position. Those are positives because the Commanders do not have a particularly large war chest with which to work. Their draft is somewhat depleted after the Wentz trade, and they do not have a ton of salary cap room if they want to maintain flexibility.

Washington needs pass-catchers to take the pressure off budding star Terry McLaurin (WR25) and maximize Wentz’s options. Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas are talented, but not locks to stay healthy. No one else on the roster strikes fear in the hearts of anyone. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this is a deep draft for wide receivers. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Commanders could have their pick of the lot at pick 11. Even if they choose to go another direction, there should be options remaining at pick 47 in the second round. There’s also a good chance one of the top tight end prospects is there in the second as well. Getting a running mate/insurance policy for Thomas would be smart. Wentz likes looking for his tight ends in the red zone. Someone like UCLA’s Greg Dulcich might look good in burgundy.

New York Giants: Fourth Place NFC East

Not even the oversized legs of Saquon Barkley could carry the Giants to NFC East (or fantasy) glory in 2021.
A healthy SaQuads would go a long way towards improving the Giants’ lot in the NFC East and could end up a draft day steal for fantasy managers.

Suffice to say, whether we’re talking factual or fantasy football, the Giants have come up a bit… short in recent seasons. The product on the field hasn’t produced a winning season since 2016. You have to go back even farther for their last NFC East division crown (2011). In fantasy apps, it’s been much the same story. Daniel Jones (QB27) hasn’t replicated Eli Manning‘s useability. Saquon Barkley has shown special talent in between season-altering and -ending injuries. But those injuries have cost fantasy managers (including yours, truly) dearly when his draft-day price is factored in. The fantasy football world waited every season for Evan Engram to finally reach his mythical potential. The perennial “sleeper” pick never did wake up; Engram’s moved south, and we’re still waiting. And the Giant receivers have had trouble standing tall, as injuries have cut them down to size seemingly every year.

Even the big men up front have had no shortage of problems. Last year’s 30th-ranked offensive line had only one player (left tackle Andrew Thomas) score an above-average grade from PFF.

Defensively, the only thing giant about the Giants was the gaping holes leading to large gains for opponents. Minuscule pass-rush success rates made for a tall task asking Giant defensive backs to cover opposing receivers all over MetLife Stadium. Things are tough all over in New York Jersey.

Giants’ Bottom Line

It’s a big ask, but outside of exponential development by Daniel Jones, perhaps the biggest need for the Giants is health at the skill positions. A healthy Barkley is a devastating weapon. He can be the focal point of a successful offense, offering value in standard and PPR fantasy scoring systems. Kadarius Toney looks like a special Swiss-Army-Knife who can be deployed all over the formation. Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton have all missed substantial chunks of time in recent seasons. It’s a deep receiver room if they can stay in the receiver room and out of the training room.

From a player-acquisition angle, the Giants still need a real tight end. Ricky Seals-Jones is a good football player in comparison to the vast majority of humanity, but he is not a fantasy-relevant option in most settings. The Giants have brought in several options along the offensive line, but outside of Thomas, they should still be looking for upgrades at every position. With five picks in the first three rounds, the opportunity is there for the Giants to address several needs with higher-end young talent. As fellow New York Jersey native, Martha Stewart would say, “That’s a good thing,” as the Giants have the least amount of effective cap space to work with.

Check back with Belly Up Fantasy Sports for more fantasy analysis and to see what teams in the rest of the league still need to add to make fantasy managers’ championship dreams come true. Next time, we’ll look at the AFC South. Got something to say? Leave a comment below and follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB.