The NFL continues with the season with or without COVID-19. One of the interesting elements of the games that are occurring at this time of year is the noticeable disparity in the intensity of the games. We have great battles in the making with the Dolphins hosting the Chiefs and the Bills hosting the Steelers (just to name two). Likewise, we have yawners and potential blowouts that are on the NFL schedule. Some of the Sunday Sevens will have these intense games with the hopes that we are correct on all predictions. Likewise, the three-leg parlay should be a bit more successful this week (last week went 0-3).

Favorite: Packers (-7.5) versus Lions

The Packers have an uncanny reputation of playing down to opponents and either losing or failing to cover the spread. Last season, the Packers only beat the Lions by a field goal in the final game of the season. That being said, the Packers are one of the favorites you can ride for the rest of the season. The list of reasons to pick the Packers are endless, the only thing the Lions have going for them is the fact that Matt Patricia is gone. Expect the Packers to win and win handily. In fact, you might want to consider taking an alternate spread. However, the unwritten rule is to never bet on a double-digit favorite on the road.

Underdog: Vikings (+6.5) versus Buccaneers

Both teams are going in opposite directions. The Vikings looked all but dead at the beginning of the season but are suddenly in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Buccaneers meanwhile, were 6-2 and poised to be the NFC’s team in the Super Bowl, now they are 7-5 and barely in control of their spot in the playoffs. The Bucs are favored by nearly a touchdown in this game, which indicates a bounce-back game. The problem with taking the Bucs is the overall play in recent games, Brady has been missing throws, the run game is non-existent, and the defense has taken a step back since the New Orleans game. The Vikings will run the ball and keep the game close. Even if they don’t pull off the upset, Minnesota will cover the spread.

Over: Saints versus Eagles (43)

Both offenses have looked average or awful in recent weeks. The Saints have become a run-first, read-option, check-down type of offense with Taysom Hill being a more effective runner than a passer. The Eagles were a mess with Carson Wentz and have finally thrown in the towel and are starting Jalen Hurts in this game. The total reflects the confidence in offense in this game and the dominating defense that the Saints have and the underrated defense that the Eagles possess.

However, 43 points is an easy number to clear and we should expect this game to go Over. For starters, the Saints keep learning new ways to work Alvin Kamara with Hill at quarterback and build a viable offense for Hill’s capabilities (slant routes, play-action). As for the Eagles, we don’t know what we are going to get from Jalen Hurts (one half in a blowout game isn’t a sample size) but we know the offense can’t be any worse than it was with Wentz. Expect the Over to cover.

Under: Titans versus Jaguars (52)

The Titans are hoping to end this game early after the embarrassing loss last week to the Browns. The Titans can and probably will run up the score in this game with a heavy dosage of Derrick Henry. There are a few reasons to bet the Under in this game. For starters, the total being 52 is high considering one of the teams has a slot machine quarterback situation (maybe once in a while one of them will have a big game). Another thing to consider is the potential of this game being shortened by both running games, both teams have good running games that they will rely on and the number of possessions will be shortened as well as time on the clock.

Money Line: Steelers versus Bills

It’s amazing how much one week can do. The Steelers and Bills played on Monday night and the Steelers suffered their first loss while the Bills had one of their best wins on the season. This game has essentially become a pick ’em game with the Bills being a one-point favorite. While the Bills are at home and one of the best teams in the AFC (and possibly NFL), all signs point to a Steelers bounce-back game.

The Steelers had to play a team coming off of 11 days of rest while they were playing off five days rest, now they are within a normal schedule. The Steelers also didn’t have James Conner for the past couple of games and basically abandoned the run in his absence. While the passing game has been strong this season, the Steelers became predictable in their first loss. Many think Pittsburgh is overrated. However, they should be able to sneak out of Buffalo with a victory.

Alternate Spread: Texans (-3.5) versus Bears

The Bears are a mess right now and the more the season progresses, the less confident I am in them winning a game. The Texans on the other hand, have looked somewhat respectable since firing Bill O’Brien. The Bears are starting Mitch Trubisky, the Texans are starting a quarterback taken after Mitch Trubisky. This game is a pick ’em game but honestly, you can bet on the Texans winning this game by a touchdown, if not more. Many are nervous to bet on Houston after watching their offense fall apart in the second half against the Colts last week. However, all of us watched how Deshaun Watson carved up the sorry Detriot Lions the game before. Bet on the Texans and take an alternate spread for better odds.

3-Leg Parlay: Seahawks (-6.5), Chiefs Money Line, Cowboys versus Bengals Under (45.5) for +202

All the spreads listed above are alternate spreads or totals in hopes of assuring the legs cover. The Seahawks are playing the NFL laughing stock known as the Jets, they should win but take away a few points to cover the spread. The Chiefs should win on the road against the Dolphins but the Dolphins will keep the game close, especially with their defense. The Cowboys and Bengals have terrible offenses and shouldn’t score many points. To be sure, take an alternate total instead of the Under at 42.5.

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