Sunday, May 19, 2024

Fantasy Football

Potential Breakout Tight Ends

Fantasy managers are constantly trying to find breakout Tight Ends. It is a position starved for fantasy-relevant players. What does it take to be considered a potential breakout candidate? Opportunity and possible target share are two of the most significant factors. Overall talent and the offense the player is a part of are also important. Lastly, having flashed for fantasy purposes at any point is a plus. I will list five breakout Tight End candidates and explain why they have a shot at remaining a fantasy mainstay in 2022. If you are looking for more names that have a boost in value, you can check out my Dynasty Winners and Losers post Free Agency article.

Gerald Everett-Los Angeles Chargers

Gerald Everett has flashed in the past for both the Rams and Seahawks. He has failed to stay consistent, but the move to LA could help fix this problem. The Chargers’ high-powered offense threw 137 passes to the TE position in 2021. Starting TE, Jared Cook, received 83 of them. Considering Everett had a stat-line of 48 receptions on 63 targets for 478 yards and four touchdowns last season, he should get an increase in opportunity with the Chargers. He is the unquestioned starter for LA, with Cook now a Free Agent. Adding the TE of one of the top offenses in football late in drafts is never a bad idea. On top of that, we have seen Everett flash for fantasy in the past, especially in the red zone. Everett check’s all the boxes of a TE poised to breakout in 2022.

Brevin Jordan-Houston Texans

Jordan is the most under-the-radar name on this list. He played eight games during his 2021 rookie campaign but flashed playing in a rotational role. Jordan recorded three Top 12 finishes last season, working alongside TEs Jordan Akins and Pharaoh Brown. Akins is still a Free Agent, freeing up 33 targets. He should see an increase in usage headed into year two, and it is tough to see this team spend high draft capital on a TE with all of the other needs they need to fill. The offense is not great, but he gets to stick with QB Davis Mills and get an entire offseason working with him as the starter. Jordan could become the main red-zone threat while remaining the number three target for a bare-bones Texans receiving core. He has the most risk of any player on this list, but he will be free in drafts and is worth keeping an eye on.

Cole Kmet-Chicago Bears

Kmet has never been short on talent, and his opportunity in Chicago gives him all the tools he needs to succeed for fantasy. However, being hyped up last season and falling short of expectations has soured many. Target share was never the problem for Kmet. The 93 targets he had in 2021 ranked eighth overall at the TE position. His issue was that he could not find the endzone. Kmet finished the season with zero touchdowns to his name, while fellow Bears TE Jimmy Graham finished with three. All of these came in the red zone. Kmet out-targeted Graham in the red zone 14 to eight, but Graham was the one who reeled in the touchdown grabs. Thankfully for Kmet, touchdowns are not a sticky stat. They fluctuate year to year for the majority of pass-catchers in the NFL. If he can improve on coming down with the ball in the end zone, then Kmet can quickly jump into breakout territory. Since the Bears look to be revamping their receiving core this offseason, Kmet is in a good spot.

Irv Smith-Minnesota Vikings

The hype surrounding Irv Smith last preseason was immense. He was a favorite late-round TE target for many, with his stock rising weekly until the end of August. However, he went down with a meniscus injury in the year’s final preseason game, which knocked him out for the entirety of 2021. Tyler Conklin stepped in for the injured Smith. Conklin played well enough to earn a sizable contract with the New York Jets this past March. Smith will step into a bare Minnesota TE room after Conklin saw 87 targets this past season. With red zone favorite Adam Thielen having trouble staying on the field for an entire season, Smith has a real shot at a high target share inside the 20s. Conklin saw 16 targets in the red zone last season, which was the eighth most. The sky is the limit for Smith.

Hayden Hurst-Cincinnati Bengals

The fantasy community has already seen Hurst breakout at points during his four-year career. His 2020 season in Atlanta was the best of his career. Overall, he finished as the TE9 with 88 targets and six touchdowns. He was buried behind rookie TE Kyle Pitts last season but now steps into a high-powered Bengals offense to take over for C.J. Uzomah. While Joe Burrow only threw to the TE 83 times last season, Hurst has a chance to score at a high rate in the red zone. The Bengals offense has multiple weapons, but Hurst is a better overall route runner and pass catcher than Uzomah. While Uzomah can hit the home run touchdown, Hurst is a better red zone threat. Hurst was the TE18 in red zone scoring last season as a backup compared to Uzomah, who was 51st. Both had the same amount of targets. Hurst has a chance to succeed as the starter for Cincinnati, and it could lead to a breakout for fantasy.

In Conclusion

Other names could have made this list. Players like Austin Hooper, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Robert Tonyan all have the potential to break out if everything breaks their way. That is what makes the potential breakout Tight End so beautiful and complex for fantasy. Let me know what TE you think will break out in 2022!

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