High Expectations for Rookie Wide Receivers

There are four rookie wide receivers that are on everybody’s “watch” list as we approach the fantasy season: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN), Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, and Zay Flowers. There are different opinions on each, some with higher expectations than others. However, because all of these four receivers were drafted in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, fantasy managers around the world are hoping to get some type of production out of them. I am predicting Quentin Johnston to get the most fantasy points out of these four in 2023.

Quentin Johnston has reportedly already “won” a starting position for next season.

Johnston said that he won the WR3 position “early” into Chargers minicamp, beating out Josh Palmer.

Palmer had a career best season last year, putting up 72 receptions, 769 yards, and 3 TD.… pic.twitter.com/srpBVcyHOF

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) July 8, 2023

A Hot Start

Reports are showing Quentin Johnston has outperformed Josh Palmer for the WR3 spot on the Chargers. This is a great sign for all you Quentin Johnston truthers out there. Palmer had a decent sophomore season in 2022, as you can see in the tweet above. The fact that the No. 21 overall pick is proving his value before the pre-season even starts is a great sign that he will be the best rookie receiver in 2023.

Competition for Targets

Justin Herbert has a ton of options on the offense which could be a concern for Johnston. When everyone is healthy, Herbert will have three main looks: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. This sounds unfortunate for the future Quentin Johnston owners, but let’s dive into my projections of Ekeler, Allen, and Williams first.

We can all agree Austin Ekeler will remain dominant on that offense. He’s been a top 2 fantasy RB for the last 2 years and has remained healthy as well. Although he isn’t happy with his current contract, he has one year left and will continue to be that perfect PPR running back in fantasy.

Keenan Allen is 31 years old and battled a hamstring injury practically all season last year. If he can stay healthy in 2023, I predict him to be the target hog along with Ekeler. However, being 31 and dealing with injuries last year is a bit concerning. These factors could open up a window for more playing time and targets for Quentin Johnston.

Mike Williams Fighting for His Role

Mike Williams is the real victim here. I see Quentin Johnston outperforming him the most out of these three. He did miss some time last year, although it seems like everyone is pinning him as “injury prone,” that isn’t necessarily true. He only missed four games and that was his first year missing significant time since his rookie season back in 2012. So let’s not label him as “injury prone.” What we can label him as is overvalued. Mike Williams had just four top-12 performances last year. The most points he scored was in week 2 for 25.3 fantasy points. He averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game which is not horrible for a WR2 on your roster, however, the fact that he can score as low as three points while playing 93% of the snaps is very concerning.

Mike Williams comes off as a “boom or bust” player for me. And when your booms arent 30+ points and your busts are as low as 3 points, it makes me not want to draft him at his ADP of 70 when you can get Quentin Johnston 2-3 rounds later.

Comparing Mike Williams to Other WR2’s

Mike Williams is often brought up in the same conversations as Devonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle, who are also the WR2 on their rosters. It just doesn’t add up. Smith has a ceiling of 31.3 fantasy points and averaged 15.1 points per game. Waddle has a ceiling of 40.1 fantasy points and averaged 15.6 points per game. They also both played every game in 2022. With the stats showing Smith and Waddle are better options for your WR2 slot, Williams should be a borderline flex play.

Don’t be the guy who thinks they can wait on drafting a second WR late in the draft. With wide receivers becoming more and more valuable, you want to fill out your wide receiver slots in the first three rounds.

Quentin Johnston has Potential

Quentin Johnston vs Oklahoma Highlights pic.twitter.com/l3YO5Hp13Z

— bigWRguy (@bigWRguy) October 18, 2021

I’m not saying Johnston can be WR2 material, but I am saying he has the potential to beat out Mike Williams for that WR2 slot by the end of the year. His 6-4 frame is the size we want to see for someone to get targets in the red zone. He’s on a high-powered offense that scores a lot of points, and defenses will be forced to pay more attention to Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. On top of that, we combine the age of Ekeler, Williams, and Allen, plus the possible injuries that can come along with that, Quentin Johnston will be the hidden gem in your draft. His ADP is currently 97, which means you do not have to spend that much on him. He can ride your bench until his chance arises, and when that day comes, you will thank yourself for drafting him.

About the Author

Jon is the host of The Eye Test: A Fantasy Football Podcast and in one of his most recent episodes, he goes on the record saying Quentin Johnston will have a better fantasy season than JSN in 2023. You can get all your fantasy football articles right here on Belly Up Fantasy Sports as we get closer and closer to redraft season. It will benefit you greatly to subscribe to these news outlets so you can be ready for the 2023 season.