Thursday, May 09, 2024

Fantasy Football

Starts and Sits: Week 10

It’s Week 10 and we all know what that means, that’s right it’s time for the Belly Up starts and sits. Were here and ready to give you the best insight on the matchups for Week 10. There are some surprises and some locks in this week’s starts and sits. I hope you guys enjoy this week’s starts and sits and let’s get some dubs this week.

Quarterback

Starts

Teddy Bridgewater vs Philadelphia Eagles

This is the matchup made in heaven for Teddy B, his completion percentage this season is 70.2. The Eagles defense is allowing quarterbacks to complete 75 percent of passes on the season. Coming off a beat down of the Cowboys in Week 9, Bridgewater will look to take advantage of the Eagles’ weak pass defense. The Eagles have given up two top 15 performances since week 7, and minus their blowout of the Lions they have given up 54 fantasy points to opposing QBs (Justin Herbert, Derek Carr). Look for this to be a breakout game for Teddy B, I think he can put together 250 yards and 3 TDs in Week 10.

Derek Carr vs Kansas City Chiefs

Carr since the departure of coach Gruden has thrown for 960 yards, 5 TDs, and 3 Ints. Averaging 320 yards without Gruden, Carr has an excellent matchup this week against the Chiefs who have allowed the second-most fantasy points (21.9/game) to opposing QBs. Carr is facing a secondary that can be exploited and has the weapons to do it at every level. If DeSean Jackson comes in this week and plays against the Chiefs then Carr should be able to get off a couple of deep balls. This is one thing to look into this week as Carr has thrown the fourth-most deep balls (42), with the tenth highest completion percentage (42.9). The Chiefs on the other hand have given up the most 40+ yard plays (11) this season. So look for Carr to take a couple of shots in this game and pull off some magic against a reeling Chiefs defense. My prediction is Carr will go for 300-350 yards and 2 TDS.

Sits

Kyler Murray vs Carolina Panthers

Murray is coming back this week and should be prepared to face one of the best defenses in the league. The Panthers have the fourth-most sacks (23) in the league and while Murray is one of the better QBs under pressure, completing 50 percent of his passes. I think his ankle injury will set back his ability to get outside and extend plays. I don’t expect Murray to have his best game of the year here, my prediction is he’ll go for 200-250, a TD, and 1-2 Ints.

Baker Mayfield vs New England Patriots

Mayfield is coming into this game off a great performance against the Bengals. He went for 218 yards and 2 TDs against a young upstart defense. This week though he goes against the mind of a 6 time Superbowl champion and coach Belichick’s defense has been en fuego. They have the most interceptions (13) and have allowed the fourth-fewest TDs (12) to opposing QBs. The Patriots have also allowed the second-fewest fantasy points (14.4/game) to the quarterback this season. Not having OBJ seems to be a blessing for Mayfield, but this defense is incredibly stingy. My prediction is 200 yards with 2 INTs for Mayfield.

Running Back

Starts

Josh Jacobs vs Kansas City Chiefs

I like both the Raiders running backs this week against the Chiefs. Jacobs is the lead back so I’ll go with him here, one thing I wanted to make a note of is Jacobs’s use in the passing game over the last two games. He’s been targeted seven times and Jacobs has caught all of them for 58 yards. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards (495) to opposing RBs. The Chiefs have been equally bad against the rush, giving up an average of 4.4 ypc. My prediction for this game is Jacobs gets 2 TDs, 70 rushing yards, and 3 receptions for 30 yards. 

AJ Dillon vs Seattle Seahawks

Dillon has been getting more involved in the offense and these past two weeks he’s had 78 and 92 yards from scrimmage. Aaron Jones is still the RB1, but Dillon is utilizing his touches well and averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. This matchup is a juicy one as well, the Hawks have allowed the tweleveth most yards (842) rushing and third-most receiving (561) to opposing RBs. Seems like a good matchup to start Dillon in your flex. Look for him to rush for 50 yards and catch a few passes for around 30 yards.

Sits

Michael Carter vs Buffalo Bills

Carter is facing a tough defense this week, the Bills have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards (518) and the fourth-fewest receiving yards (240) to opposing RBs. The Bills have also allowed the fewest fantasy points (12.3/game) to opposing RBs. Carter has been picking up steam lately but this defense is just too good to play Carter against. My prediction, Carter rushes for 25 yards and catches 3 balls for 20 yards.

Adrian Peterson vs New Orleans Saints

Peterson just came in last week and had a dud of a game minus the TD, but for a guy who just came off the couch, we shouldn’t have expected more. This week will be a tougher matchup than last week’s Rams defense was, the Saints have been the best team against the rush only allowing 425 rushing yards this season. Look for Peterson to get more touches in this game, but not be the most effective back in the game. I’m expecting AP to go for 40-50 yards, and not score, hence he’ll be someone to sit in this game.

Wide Receiver

Starts

Mike Williams vs Minnesota Vikings

My bold prediction for the week is that Williams gets back on track against the Vikings. The Vikings have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards (1,501) to opposing WRs. Williams will be lining up against Cameron Dantzler who has been exploited in the past couple of games against CeedDee Lamb and Rashod Bateman. Williams had 31 receptions, 471 yards, and 6 TDs prior to his knee injury, since Week 6 he’s caught 6 passes for 104 yards and zero TDs. The one promising stat is that Williams has still been getting 5 targets a game, and one other thing to take into account is Keenan Allen is carrying a questionable tag going into this game. So maybe this means Williams gets more involved on Sunday. My prediction is Williams goes for 100 yards and a TD.

Ty Hilton vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Hilton is coming back this week against the Jaguars and will add the deep ball threat that the Colts need. The Jaguars have given up the fourth-most plays of 20+ receiving yards (36), setting up for an excellent matchup this week for Hilton. Look for the Colts to go downfield with Hilton much like the Texan game where he caught 4 passes for 80 yards. Hilton is a good flex play in this game, my prediction is he catches 5 passes for 80-100 and a TD.

Sits

Elijah Moore vs Buffalo Bills

Moore is coming off his first breakout game against the Colts last week. Now he has the worst matchup for opposing WRs, with the Bills allowing the fewest yards (928), TDs (2), and fantasy points (13/game). Moore should be a good second-half player, but this isn’t the game to play him. My prediction for Moore is that he’ll bring in 2-3 receptions for 20-40 yards and zero TDs.

Adam Thielen vs LA Chargers

Thielen is coming off a blah Week 9, with 2 receptions for 6 yards and a TD. Now he has to go against a rising rookie corner Asante Samuel Jr and a stingy Chargers secondary. The Chargers have only allowed 15.2 fantasy points to opposing WRs. They have allowed the second-fewest yards (946) and TDs (4) to WRs this season. Thielen has often been relying on the touchdown this season to save his fantasy day. Subtracting his lone 100-yard game, Thielen’s averages have been 4 receptions for 51 yards, which shows the value of a touchdown to his stat line. I don’t see Thielen getting a TD in this game, so my prediction is 3 receeptions for 30-40 yards.

Tight End

Start

Dawson Knox vs New York Jets

Knox is back on Sunday, and the Bills can’t wait to get him back on the field. This is a team that couldn’t beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, and couldn’t get in the endzone. Look for the Bills to go out trying to flex their offense on a susceptible Jets defense. The Jets have allowed the 8th most points (9.5/game) to opposing tight ends. Going into this game Knox has 5 TDs and could be in for another TD in this game. My prediction is Knox goes off for 70-80 yards and a TD.

Sits

Dallas Goedert vs Denver Broncos

Goedert hasn’t been the player we all wanted him to be since the Zach Ertz trade. A lot of this has to do with the Eagles going with their run game in recent games. With the Eagles limiting Jalen Hurts‘ passing attempts in the past couple games, it’s become hard to feed receivers. Goedert has a tough challenge ahead of his in the Broncos. Denver boasts a defense that only allows 6 fantasy points/game to opposing TEs. I figure this is going to be a difficult day for the Eagles to score, hence I’m not putting much into Goedert’s stock. My prediction is 40 yards on 4 receptions and zero TDs.

Conclusion

Week 10 starts and sits is here to make your life easier. We at Belly Up analyze the best and worst matchups to put together a list of the best starts and sits of the weekend. I hope this week’s starts and sits give you guys a good idea of who to put in your lineup. Tune in every week for the Belly up starts and sits and good luck this week.

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