Tuesday, May 07, 2024

Fantasy Baseball

The Astros Cheating Hurts Us All

It still feels strange to have to explain this to people. Almost all of us, regardless of culture, ethnicity, nationality, or economic background was raised that honesty mattered. We were raised that integrity mattered. As children, we had the merits of fair play taught to us by coaches, teachers, and our parents. Yet somehow, the Astros’ players and management missed that lesson entirely or chose to ignore it. In the wake of the punishments, even a healthy chunk of Houston’s fanbase has rallied around the team, declaring they don’t care about the cheating. It was worth it because they’d won. The long-term damage, however, may be impossible to undo.

Meritocracy Undone

One of the grandest underlying principles of baseball is that it’s a meritocracy. A good player’s ability will help him rise above the rest and lead to a long career. We are told that we’re watching the best of the best and that the World Series is between the most deserving teams. The Astros’ cheating undercuts that. It lets an otherwise subpar or average player achieve far beyond their ability. The minute you allow the perception that “everyone cheats” to take hold, it becomes far more difficult to hold players to the honor system. The minute you stop punishing the players who cheated, you have increased the odds that others will take the chance on cheating.

It Was Unneccesary

Particularly in the case of the Astros, the cheating was really overkilled. They were ALREADY a very good team, loaded with talent. Take one look at their 2017 roster and you can see that they were going to be playoff contenders for the better part of a decade, moving forward. They had the potential to be a dynasty. What they were doing was the equivalent, in many cases, to you cheating in a footrace with a toddler. Some of the examples of their cheating were in blowout wins. They were running up the score and padding their stats on teams who were never going to make a comeback.

It Tarnished an Excellent Series

If there’s no cheating, that 2017 World Series is excellent. It went seven games and had that narrative we almost all love, with a scrappy underdog facing off against a big market juggernaut. The Astros insist that the playoffs were clean and that the banging wasn’t used. Of course, they also point out that they wouldn’t have been able to hear the banging due to elevated noise levels. So it’s not that they decided to stop cheating for any moral reason, but a practical one. Truthfully, it’s not out of the question to presume they found a different way to cheat since they certainly had been reaping the benefits to this point anyway.

At the point that you question a world championship’s validity, you have irreparably damaged the game. In the early part of the 20th century, a tainted World Series was enough to get eight men banned for life, including several who would otherwise have gotten Hall consideration. Yes, those circumstances were different, but the result was still the same. The commissioner realized that there was no way he could allow such a thing to go unpunished if he wanted the game to continue to thrive.

Astros Cheating
Pictured above: Rob Manfred.

Rob Manfred Shares the Blame

Rob Manfred, like his equally terrible predecessor, Bud Selig, is a horrible commissioner. He’s transparently a puppet for the owners. He cares more about making his mark on the game than he does for preserving the integrity of it. Rather than punishing players, he granted them immunity. While I will grant you that at least part of this was to avoid angering the Player’s Union any further in the lead up to the CBA negotiations in 2021, the reality is that most of the victims of Houston’s cheating schemes are FURIOUS. The Player’s Union probably would not have held this against MLB, beyond maybe a little saber-rattling and gamesmanship.

Astros Cheating
The face of a man who knows his own legacy is tarnished.

Instead, his punishments came down on coaches, and a token punishment to the Houston franchise. Five million dollars is nothing, particularly given how much revenue the franchise made in ticket and merchandise. Hell, EVERY PLAYER ON THE PLAYOFF ROSTER GOT A BONUS OF NEARLY HALF A MILLION DOLLARS. This is based on ticket sales, so it’s very easy to see that the team made far, FAR more than that just in the playoffs alone. Houston loses a few draft picks, but that’s nothing that can’t be overcome. In other words, the reward outweighed the risk. THIS HAS TO CHANGE.

In addition, the Dodgers’ bonus checks as the losers for the series amounted to a little over $250,000. JUST OVER HALF OF WHAT THE ASTROS RECEIVED. Even in the world of millionaires, this is nothing to sneeze at. The lack of real punishment continues to hurt even players whose jobs aren’t in danger because there’s literally no deterrent for a team to stop cheating.

Gamblers Were Affected as Well

And finally, gamblers were absolutely affected as well. It’s impossible to calculate how much money changed hands specifically due to false outcomes driven by the Astros’ conduct throughout 2017. I’m not talking about simply the World Series bets or the playoff time bets. Draftkings do literally millions of dollars per week in regular season gambling events. DFS is more popular than ever, and the Astros players were potentially involved in 50%-75% of all regular season slates where wagers could be placed. How many of those home runs, RBI, or base hits turned a player from a winner in the standings to a loser, and vice versa? If you play DFS, you’re well aware that an RBI double can often be the difference between a top-five finish and a top 30 finish for the day.

The allure of DFS is that it’s skill-based, and not a game of chance, like roulette. Sports gamblers rely on the concept that it’s a level playing field. We rely on the stats being true. While we can account for park factors, splits, or BABIP, what we can’t account for is cheating. If we don’t have all the information, we can’t bet with as much confidence. When we can’t bet with confidence, our risk is higher. If our risk is higher, we don’t bet as much. When we don’t bet as much, sites like Fanduel and Draftkings don’t make as much. If they don’t make as much, we have fewer opportunities to enjoy our hobby.

In short, EVERYONE is affected by this scandal. The Astros didn’t just hurt the Indians and Dodgers; they hurt all of us.

Follow me on Twitter @Viking_Chuck

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