Wednesday, May 01, 2024

Fantasy Baseball, Featured

Three Streamer Options for the First Weekend of Games

With the 2023 season set to begin, I wanted to quickly highlight a few streamer options for the weekend that might interest anyone looking for an early boost. The focus here is on pitchers rostered under 20 percent. Though there are lots of streaming options and possibilities this weekend, these are my three favorites of the bunch. Because it’s so early, reaching too far for a stream can be dangerous. But while it’s important to stream (at least this early on) with caution, we must also consider players that can offer a real boost. So with that being said; here are three streamer options, under 20 percent rostered, who offer real upside this weekend.

Nick Martinez (SD) vs. Colorado Rockies (3/31)

Nick Martinez is coming off of a rather interesting season for the Padres that saw him split time as a starter and a long reliever, with nice outcomes both ways. Martinez finished the year with 106 innings pitched and a solid 3.47 ERA, but a poor 1.29 WHIP and 8.0 SO/9. All-in-all with Martinez, the word “solid” will often get thrown around, because that’s exactly what he is.

His five-pitch mix features a great vertical movement profile all around. He spins the ball very well and almost all of his pitches play off each other very nicely, with what appear to be great tunnels. His fastball is a bit of a mediocre offering. But he uses it very well to set up his other pitches, making it both necessary and useful. His 32.5 percent overall chase rate is great evidence. Pitches such as his changeup and curveball are highly effective when playing off the fastball, with plus vertical movement and nice deception out of the hand. In addition, he forced a lot of ground balls and weak contact in 2022, with a 48 percent ground ball rate to show for it.

On Friday, Martinez will be playing at his home field of Petco Park, the second most pitcher-friendly park in the MLB according to park factor. On top of that, the Padres finished last season in the upper third of the league in defensive efficiency. He’ll have the likes of Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim, and Jake Cronenworth behind him. And for those chasing a boost in the wins category, you have to love the potential run support that Martinez could be getting here. The Padres were a top-half offense in baseball last season and now feature a core of Machado, Juan Soto, and Xander Bogaerts in the heart of the order. Martinez definitely has the deck stacked in his favor. And that’s before mentioning his opponent.

The Colorado Rockies are one of the better matchups Martinez could ask for at home. Yes, the Rockies were a top-half offense last season and 12th in team OPS. But, unsurprisingly, their home OPS was almost 180 points higher than their road OPS. They didn’t make many additions this offseason and will be trying out a lot of younger talent. This matchup provides a major upside for Martinez, who probably just needs to have a solid day to get a win. Solid is what he does best. And for those in ESPN leagues with SP roster limits, Martinez carries the “RP, SP” designation. Therefore he will not count against said limits. This feels like a very safe stream with a nice upside, potentially a great boost for a quiet Friday slate.

Graham Ashcraft (Cin) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (4/2)

Graham Ashcraft is a bit of a wild card heading into 2023. A simple pass at his 2022 results won’t yield much confidence. Ashcraft finished with a 4.89 ERA through his 105 innings pitched, with a 1.42 WHIP and only 71 strikeouts. He was very hit-or-miss but did turn in a few nice outings to go with some of the bad ones. May and August were good months for Ashcraft. But the rest were forgettable and made for a very frustrating streamer option throughout the year. So why do I have confidence here?

To start, Ashcraft has some pretty impressive stuff. He boasts a four-pitch mix with the cutter, sinker, and slider making up about 99 percent of his very unique arsenal. The cutter and sinker both sit at 97 mph with decent movement, while the slider has a fantastic movement profile, one of the better ones you might see. I don’t know that these pitches work together very well, but they do present some nice upside on a nightly basis. He just needs to put it together, something he struggled with as a rookie. The changeup ideally will also be a bigger factor. There are also reports of Ashcraft hitting 100 mph often this spring, with an even new-and-improved shape to his slider, thanks to a new grip.

The Pirates present a very nice matchup opportunity, especially if Ashcraft looks different than what old scouting reports from last season show. Pittsburgh was third-to-last in team OPS in 2022. And while Cincinnati is a hitter-friendly park, the Pirates posted an embarrassing .639 OPS on the road last season. I think they’ll hit better than they did last year, with young pieces starting to round into form. But this is a great matchup for any starting pitcher. These are still the Pirates, and with little free-agent help. Of course, this is certainly a riskier stream. Ashcraft has shown very little consistency at this point. The Reds’ defense may not help much either. But ultimately, the upside, stuff, and matchup all make this a fun option. I especially like this stream in deeper leagues and points leagues. The Pirates’ weak offense should mitigate any chance of disaster.

Jared Shuster (Atl) @ Washington Nationals (4/2)

Now, this is a really fun one. One that I’ve been looking forward to for a bit. Jared Shuster was a first-round pick in 2020 and is currently the number-one prospect in the Braves system. This will be the first MLB action of his career, courtesy of an unfortunate injury to Kyle Wright. Shuster has been moving rapidly through the minor leagues, and dominated his time between AA and AAA last season, en route to a 3.29 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 145 strikeouts through 139 innings. The Braves are certainly one of the more trustworthy groups of talent evaluators and look to have hit on yet another homegrown talent.

Shuster has a lot of traits that should carry over to the MLB level. Even if some of the top-end stuff isn’t quite there yet. While his fastball sits only 91-92 mph, his changeup is hailed as one of the best in the minors and pairs well with an effective slider. What I love most about Shuster, and why he also carries a low WHIP, is his command and elite strike-throwing ability. Shuster pounds the corners of the strike zone consistently. He can locate all of his pitches and elicits some chases and whiffs all while keeping the walks down. I do think his fastball has the potential to get hit a decent amount. But the changeup and slider make for great bat-missing stuff and should help him collect strikeouts in the process. Shuster pitches with a lot of maturity, which should help him succeed right out of the gate.

Playing on the road against the Nationals has a huge win-upside. The Nats finished between 20th and 26th in most offensive categories last season including OPS and runs scored. They don’t have a ton going for them right now in this rebuild and therefore don’t pose much of a threat offensively. Similar to Nick Martinez, the deck is stacked in Shuster’s favor. The Braves were one of the MLB’s top-three offenses last season and look to repeat in that regard. Nationals Park is a neutral park. And on top of that, the Braves fielded a top-half defense last season that should finish similarly in 2023.

Shuster was absolutely lights out this spring (1.45 ERA, 0.59 WHIP), and has a ton of momentum. As I said, his style is also tailored for early success. A strike-thrower with three high-usage pitches and mature command. If you want to stream for a win and great ratios, there’s a ton of potential in going with Jared Shuster this Sunday. Not only can the results help in the short term, but it could be the start of a very fun ride.

Lastly

We’re rolling out quite a bit of new fantasy baseball content as the MLB season gets underway. I’ll have more waiver-wire content and early-season analysis coming. But in the meantime, check out my last piece looking at three hitters set to outperform their ADPs. Make sure to check out the rest of our fantasy sports and fantasy baseball content here. And feel free to give me a Twitter follow as well!