Saturday, April 27, 2024

Betting, Fantasy Football, Gambling

 TNF Fantasy, Player Props, and Game Line Analysis of Saints vs Rams

The upcoming game between the Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints is expected to be an intriguing matchup. In this article, we will look closer at the player props and analyze the performance of key fantasy players from both teams. Let’s dive into the details.

Game Lines:

The Rams have recently been on a roll, having rattled off a 4-1 record over the past 5 games. So it shouldn’t be surprising to see them favored against a clunky Saints team with a -4.5-point line. The line bodes well for the Rams as they are 2-0 this season against the spread (ATS) when 4-point favorites. For the record, the over/under sits at 44.5 points but offers little value.

Quarterbacks: Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr

1. Matthew Stafford:

Matthew Stafford, my QB8,  has been performing impressively lately, exceeding his yardage prop of 247.5 in three out of the last four games. However, it’s worth noting that the Saints defense has been strong against passing yards, ranking fifth in the league. Stafford has also surpassed his touchdown pass prop of 1.5 in the previous four consecutive games.

2. Derek Carr:

Derek Carr, my QB22, has been consistent in recent weeks, going over his 1.5 touchdown pass prop in the last two games. Furthermore, facing a Rams defense that has allowed the 10th most touchdown passes this season might work in Carr’s favor. We may see some touchdown passes this Thursday Night.

Running Backs: Kyren Williams and Alvin Kamara

1. Kyren Williams:

Kyren Williams, my RB2, has proven to be a reliable running back, surpassing his rushing yard prop of 91.5 in four out of the last five games. Kyren will be up against a Saints defense that ranks 12th in yards allowed to running backs this season, which could create opportunities for Williams to shine.

2. Alvin Kamara:

Alvin Kamara, my RB5, has been consistent in his performances, surpassing his rushing yard prop of 49.5 in the last four consecutive games. However, it’s important to note that the Rams have displayed strong pass defense against running backs, allowing the fewest receiving yards this season. This could limit Kamara’s impact in the passing game and stick to just the over on his rushing prop. 

Wide Receivers: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and A.T. Perry

1. Puka Nacua:

Puca Nacua, my WR17, has been a solid fantasy option, consistently ranking within the top 20 wide receivers. However, with the emergence of Cooper Kupp, Nacua’s targets have decreased in the past two weeks. He is a must-start in your fantasy leagues, but not a must-play on your prop bets this week.

2. Cooper Kupp:

Cooper Kupp, my WR11, has been exceptional in recent weeks, surpassing his receiving yard prop of 73.5 in the last two games. Nevertheless, the Saints have proven to be strong against opposing wide receivers, allowing the fifth least receiving yards. Keep an eye on Kupp’s performance against this tough defense.

3. Chris Olave:

Chris Olave, my WR15, has been reliable, surpassing his receiving yard prop of 63.5 in three out of the last four games. Olave is facing a decent matchup against the Saints, who have allowed the 13th most receiving yards to wide receivers. Olave could be a viable option during the game. Thankfully cleared and ready to play.

4. Rashid Shaheed:

Rashid Shaheed, my WR47, usage has been inconsistent, resulting in him falling short of his receiving yard prop of 30.5 in three out of the last four games. It might be wise to steer clear of betting or relying on him for fantasy purposes in this matchup.

5. A.T. Perry:

A.T. Perry, my WR80,  has seen increased playing time following Michael Thomas‘ injury, going over his receiving yard prop of 13.5 in four out of the last five games. While his targets may be limited, Perry has demonstrated big-play potential, making him an interesting player to bet on as it just takes one play to hit the low over.

Tight Ends: Taysom Hill and Tyler Higbee

1. Taysom Hill:

Taysom Hill, my RE15, has utilization that can be unpredictable, making it challenging to pin down his production. Betting or relying on him in fantasy might not be a wise choice, especially in crucial fantasy playoffs or when wagering real money.

2. Tyler Higbee:

Tyler Higbee, my TE22, has surpassed his receiving yard prop of 29.5 in the previous two games. Additionally, the Saints’ defense has allowed the 12th most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Higbee could be an intriguing option for those looking for sneaky Thursday night plays.

For more content from Dan Mader, host of the MD’s Fantasy Football Show, visit the YouTube channel, or get the edge by viewing his industry-accurate rankings here.