Thursday, May 02, 2024

Betting, Fantasy Football, Gambling

TNF Chargers vs Raiders: Fantasy, Player Props, and Game Line Preview

As we approach Week 15 of the NFL season, there are several intriguing matchups to watch. This article will analyze the game line, player Props, and fantasy projections for the Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers game. With uncertainties surrounding the starting quarterbacks for both teams, it is crucial to assess the potential value of each player in fantasy football and betting. Let’s dive into the analysis.

Game Lines:

Three points favor the Las Vegas Raiders with an over/under line set at 33.5. Considering that both teams have only had three games each exceeding the over, it might be advisable to take the under. Additionally, the Raiders, who are playing against an imploding Chargers team, seem like a good bet to cover the spread.

Quarterbacks: Easton Stick and Aidan O’Connell

1. Easton Stick:

Ranked 27th in my rankings, Stick’s performance will heavily depend on his ability to keep his teammates fantasy relevant. Stick showed a willingness to check down to Austin Ekeler, targeting him seven times in the most recent game. However, with the Raiders’ solid defense and the limited sample size from Stick, it’s far from a certainty of what to expect.

2. Aidan O’Connell:

Ranking 28th in my rankings, O’Connell is expected to be the starting quarterback, though he could be on a short leash for Jimmy Garoppolo, or Brian Hoyer. This uncertainty makes it difficult to determine the value of O’Connell for betting purposes.

Running Backs: Josh Jacobs, Ameer Abdullah, Zamir White, and Austin Ekeler

1. Josh Jacobs:

There is an injury concern surrounding Jacobs, which makes it challenging to determine his value. There is a very limited sample size available, but it is a logical guess that Ameer Abdullah may be involved on passing downs, while Zamir White may handle rushing situations if Jacobs were to miss tonight. Neither Ameer Abdullah nor Zamir White would reach flex consideration in my rankings without Jacobs.

2. Austin Ekeler:

Ranked 12th in my rankings, Ekeler is expected to perform well, especially in the receiving game. With Stick likely to rely on Ekeler as a safety net, especially without Keenan Allen, taking the over on his receiving yards prop (26.5) seems like a solid bet. Remember last week was the most receiving involvement Ekeler had seen since week 10.

Wide Receivers: Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and Hunter Renfrow

1. Davante Adams:

Ranked 21st in my rankings, Adams has been consistent in surpassing his receiving yardage prop (68.5) in three out of the last four games. Additionally, the Chargers’ defense has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. Taking the over with confidence tonight. 

3. Jakobi Meyers:

If Jimmy Garoppolo were to play at quarterback, taking the over on Meyers’ reception prop (4.5) would be a steal. However, with uncertainties surrounding the quarterback situation, it might be best to stay away from Meyers in fantasy and betting until more clarity emerges.

4. Josh Palmer:

Ranked 43rd in my rankings, with the absence of Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, it would be wise to avoid any Chargers wide receivers from a fantasy and betting standpoint, as their production is likely to be volatile. Palmer’s receiving yards prop sits at a tempting 32.5.

5. Quentin Johnston:

Ranked 50th in my rankings, Johnston will be needed to step up. Given that this will be Palmer’s first game back and Stick will have to target the perimeter WRs at some point, Johnston’s 2.5 receptions prop is one of the few values I want the over. 

6. Hunter Renfrow:

Renfrow has been consistent in surpassing his receiving yardage prop (26.5) in the last three games. Unless there is a change at quarterback, it seems reasonable to continue betting on Renfrow to exceed this mark.

Tight Ends: Gerald Everett and Michael Mayer

1. Gerald Everett:

Ranked 15th in my rankings, Everett has reason to think that he could be leaned on. The running joke in fantasy circles highlights the fact that Everett never seems to produce when you have expectations for him. His receiving prop sits at 30.5, but this is a no-value bet for me. Nor do I want to trust a volatile TE in my fantasy playoff lineups in a relatively strong TE week.

2. Michael Mayer:

Mayer has surpassed his receiving yardage prop (18.5) in three out of the last four games. Considering the Chargers’ susceptibility to tight ends, 5th most receiving yards allowed, it seems like a favorable bet to take the over. This is one of the best bets, even if the quarterback situation remains uncertain.

For more content from Dan Mader, host of the MD’s Fantasy Football Show, visit the YouTube channel, or get the edge by viewing his industry-accurate rankings here.