You’ve had a week to recover. The family have (perhaps mercifully) all either moved on or gone back to wherever it is they came from. Whatever. They’re not at your place anymore. You’ve given up on the rest of the leftovers; the dishes are at least done, if not quite all put away. (Where do we keep the punchbowl, again? Why do we have a punchbowl?) The kids are back in school. For better-ish or worse, life or something like it can return to normal for a few weeks. Which means only one game instead of three on the Week 13 Thursday slate. But as if to buck the trend we’ve seen thus far in the NFL’s mid-week showcase, this week offers an intriguing divisional matchup with important implications. The teams are both reasonably competent, too. So we’ve got that going for us. Which is nice.

The Bills travel to Foxboro to face the remnants of the NFL’s version of the Galactic Empire. New England finds themselves in unfamiliar territory- last place in the AFC East, looking up at the New York Jets, who happen to hold the last playoff spot. The Patriots are a game back of Gang Green, as the first team currently outside-looking-in. Despite a tie for the division’s best record, the Bills hold only the top wild card spot by virtue of their Week 3 loss to the Dolphins. As two of the best defenses in the real and fantasy worlds collide, we’re here to help you find the points to get your own quest for the playoffs off to a good start in the Week 13 Thursday Night game.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted. Odds and betting information are courtesy Quarter4.

Week 13 Thursday Night Preview: Bills’ Offense

The Bills offense can hardly be considered a liability, both in terms of their real-life performance and their impact on fantasy rosters. Stefon Diggs is the overall WR1. Gabriel Davis has had some monster flashes. Devin Singletary has built on his strong finish to 2021 and seems much less mercurial in his fantasy results. Tyler Bass is the overall K2 and has actually made a higher percentage of his kicks than Justin Tucker on the year. Overall QB2 Josh Allen has continued to literally run over his opponents (averaging 6.9 yards per carry) while throwing 23 touchdowns to this point- good for second in the league.

Lately, however, things haven’t been all sunshine-and-puppy dogs for Buffalo. While they were able to weather some recent, well, weather issues and win back-to-back games in Detroit (something the Lions haven’t done since 2016), Allen has uncharacteristically struggled as of late. In his past five contests, Allen has as many redzone interceptions as he does redzone touchdown passes (five.) Those difficulties have kept opponents uncomfortably close. Each of the Bills’ last four games have been decided by eight points or fewer, including a pair of losses that have cost them the division lead and the top spot in the AFC. Four of Allen’s five lowest-scoring games of the season have come in a portion of the season when fantasy managers need everything they can get.

Bills’ Offense Big Question

So, can Allen get his redzone miscues under control against a Patriot defense that has the third-most interceptions and is allowing the lowest completion percentage of any team in the league? The Patriots are great at neutralizing opponents’ strengths and making teams pay for mistakes. If Allen and the Bills can avoid the redzone woes that have plagued them over the previous handful of contests, it would make life much easier. For fantasy purposes, Allen has been able to mitigate any potential damage from his turnovers regardless. I’m confident he’ll be able to continue that pattern if nothing else. You know the Belly Up Fantasy mantra by now- don’t overthink it. You’re starting Allen (my QB4 this week), and you’re starting Diggs as well. Bass (my K4 this week) and the Bills’ DST are also must-starts.

It’s the supporting cast in Buffalo that requires some more involved consideration. I’ve got Dawson Knox as a starting option this week at TE10, but I feel kind of icky about it. On paper, it’s the best match-up the Bills have this week, as New England gives up the eighth-most half-PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. But Knox is a heavily touchdown-dependent option even by tight end standards. He’s only got five redzone targets in 10 games this season. In a position group where a pulse means a possibility, he’s usable, but the floor’s low. Elsewhere, Isaiah McKenzie was the wideout of choice last week, but I prefer Davis in the Week 13 Thursday tilt. He’s a low WR2/FLEX. Finally, Singletary is a low RB2/FLEX option. I don’t see Buffalo running away with this one, so James Cook shouldn’t take too much of Devin’s shine.

Week 13 Thursday Night Preview: Patriots’ Offense

Mac Jones has been quite literally the anti-Allen this season. Not only has he been much less efficient and proficient as a runner, but only Zach Wilson and Kenny Pickett have fewer touchdown passes among full-time starting quarterbacks this season. And Jones has one more start than either of them. Needless to say, Jones hasn’t exactly been a fantasy juggernaut in 2022. His lack of production has corresponded in a severe lack of value among his pass catchers. Outside of running back revelation Rhamondre Stevenson (RB8), no New England offensive skill player ranks in the top-20 fantasy scorers at his position. And only Hunter Henry (TE24) even ranks in the top-35 at his position.

Patriots’ Offense Big Question

Facing one of the better defenses in the league, and presumably needing to pass for a good portion of the contest, can Jones and the Patriots make enough plays to make anyone other than Stevenson worth starting? Jones is my QB25 this week, and honestly wouldn’t be that high except seemingly a quarter of the league is either on bye or starting a backup for one reason or another. You don’t want him. Damien Harris is out with an injury, so Stevenson figures to see a ton of volume. Coming off career-highs in targets and receptions, even a pass-heavy gamescript should give him plenty of scoring potential. He’s my RB8 this week. Enjoy. Nick Folk (K11 this week) is always startable. The Patriots are the top fantasy DST, and useful even in the face of a bad match-up. They’re more of a streamer than a must-start this week at DST13.

If you’ve been paying attention this season, I’ve made my thoughts on the Patriots’ pass catchers pretty plain. In case you haven’t, though, here it is: New England doesn’t use them, and neither should you. For a team known for tight end usage, neither Henry nor Jonnu Smith are predictably reliable. We won’t talk about Jonnu, no, no. And even coming off a nice game last week, I have Henry as a low TE2 at best (TE21). Ignore Nelson Agholor‘s WR16 finish in Week 12. He’s still WR78 on the season. Only Jakobi Meyers approaches consistent value as a Patriot wideout, and he’s only my WR31 this week. And as the Bills’ defensive game plan probably says, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and Tyquan Thornton (no relation) can all be ignored in the Week 13 Thursday Night game.

Betting Lines (Courtesy of Quarter4):

Favorite: Bills (-4.5)

Over/Under: 40.5

Notable Props: Rhamondre Stevenson pass receptions (5.9); Stefon Diggs receiving yards (91); Tyler Bass field goal attempts (2.2)

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