Saturday, May 18, 2024

Fantasy Football

Week 4 Thursday Night Football Preview

The NFL’s slate of Thursday games has been brilliant through three weeks, and the Week 4 Thursday Night Game promises more of the same. The Miami Dolphins, fresh off an upset of the Buffalo Bills, travel to Cincinnati, where the Bengals will look to whitewash Tua and company and get back to .500. There should be a color rush of fantasy points tonight. Let’s dive into the Week 4 Thursday game preview.

Note: All point totals and rankings are PPR unless otherwise noted.

Week 4 Thursday Night Preview: Bengals’ Offense

The Bengals will look to flex their muscle against one of the league’s most porous pass defenses.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals finally got off the schneid against the Jets in Week 3. Surprise, surprise- the Bengals’ offensive line gave Burrow a modicum of protection and allowed him to throw for 275 yards and three scores without an interception. After 13 sacks the first two games, Burrow was only sacked twice. Amazing what an offense with this many weapons can do when QB1 isn’t lying flat on his back.

Ja’Marr Chase had a relatively quiet day in New Jersey, but Tyler Boyd stepped up in a big way, leading the Bengals’ wide receivers and putting up his best fantasy score since Week 15 of last season. Tee Higgins also put in a respectable day’s work. While Joe Mixon was held in check before leaving with an ankle ailment, Samaje Perine was able find enough room to gain 47 years on nine rushes. In all, it was a performance much more worthy of the defending AFC champions than what they’d shown in the season’s first two games.

Bengals’ Offense Big Question

We mentioned Mixon’s ankle problem that forced him to leave the Jets game in the fourth quarter. The ankle doesn’t seem to be an issue, as Mixon was a full participant in the two days of practice leading up to Thursday. The Bengals will need him healthy and on his game, as the Miami defense has been effective against the run. The Dolphins have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards of any team and have yet to allow a touchdown on the ground.

Where the Dolphins are vulnerable is through the air. Miami has allowed the second-most yards through the air and has the fourth-lowest quarterback pressure rate in the league. Now those stats might be skewed a bit, considering they played most of Week 1 with a comfortable lead on the Patriots, followed by back-to-back games against Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. But based on the eye test as well, this is a team against which a team like Cincinnati should be able to throw effectively. Start your Bengals’ studs, of course, but don’t overlook Hayden Hurst in this one. Miami has given up the most targets and completions to tight ends on the year, and the second-most yards to the position. A Bengals stack in DFS with Hurst included could be a more counter-culture play than it may seem.

Week 4 Thursday Night Preview: Dolphins’ Offense

The Dolphins’ pass offense is number one in the league in fourth quarter comebacks, with two already in the season’s first three weeks.

Of the questions coming into the season for Miami, the Tua-Tyreek dynamic may have been the biggest. After one of the offseason’s most shocking trades, fans and pundits wondered if the pairing would work. Did Tua Tagovailoa have the arm strength to properly utilize Tyreek Hill‘s speed? Could Tua support two fantasy-relevant wide receivers in Hill and second-year phenom Jaylen Waddle?

Three games into the great experiment, the answers to those questions appear to be in the affirmative.

Waddle and Hill are currently WR4 and WR5 on the year. They are second and third among wideouts in receiving yardage. And both rank in the top 13 wide receivers in the league in targets. Tua is QB5 and has a completion percentage over 71, about four points higher than his career average. He also has the best deep-ball completion percentage of any quarterback. Mike McDaniel may have unlocked the quarterback the Dolphins were hoping they drafted fifth overall in 2020.

Dolphins’ Offense Big Question

About the only thing that hasn’t gone exceptionally well for Miami has been the running back situation. In hindsight we probably all should’ve seen this coming. McDaniel came from the Shanahan system. I could probably stop there, but wait, there’s more! Miami signed and rostered about 876 running backs in the offseason, each of whom had been fantasy-relevant in the past. Sony Michel was released eventually. Myles Gaskin has been relegated to healthy-scratch status. Salvon Ahmed is seeing little-to-no usage but appears to have a role of some sort. And so we’re left with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. The two have split snaps and opportunities fairly equally but unpredictably.

Probably best to steer clear of Dolphin running backs if you can this season. For The Week 4 Thursday game, use one only if you have to. My life-or-death choice would be Edmonds. The Bengals have given up the ninth-fewest rushing yards to opposing backs. That’s good news and should continue. The bad news- they’ve given up the second-fewest yards to opposing receivers, which is where Tua and the Dolphins will want to force the issue. One interesting note: if there’s a week to use Mike Gesicki with any semblance of confidence, this may be it. As good as Cincinnati has been against receivers, they’ve been that bad against tight ends. The Bengals have surrendered the fourth-most yards and sixth-most receptions to tight ends. If you’re desperately seeking a streamer, Gesicki is worth a look this week.

Challenge Chase!

Ever wonder how you stack up against the experts? Now’s your chance to find out! You can use teams you’ve already drafted to take me on for weekly bragging rights with Flex Fantasy. Visit https://www.flex.fan/bellyup to sign up and challenge me, as I’ll be using lineups from my own home leagues. You can play for fun, play for money, or play for both! Look for SttChaseFFB’s teams in the Flex Fantasy Arena and sign up today. I promise I won’t rub it in (much) when I win. Got something to say? Leave a comment below, follow me on Twitter @SttChaseFFB, and catch me on the Belly Up Fantasy Live podcast Sundays and Wednesdays all season long. Slàinte!