Friday, May 17, 2024

Fantasy Football

Week 6 Thursday Night Football Preview

The NFL is nothing if not resilient. After last Thursday’s alleged “professional” football exhibition (calling it a “contest” didn’t seem appropriate,) no one would’ve blamed Roger Goodell for calling an audible and shuttering the Thursday night program all together. It would’ve been popular with players, and at least when something that horrifically inept occurs on a Sunday, there’s actual football being played in other stadiums to distract the rabble. But Amazon’s dollars dictate otherwise, and so the league will bravely soldier on to Chicago. The Week 6 Thursday Night game will attempt to pass off the Washington Commanders at the Chicago Bears as something worth not just watching, but paying to watch. At home. Surrounded by the rest of your life- countless options for how to spend your time.

The positive news is that there’s relatively little chance that we see another game as historically bad as last week. Relatively. The bad news is we’re still talking about the Commanders and the Bears. Like the NFL, though, we’re bouncing back. It takes a certain amount of resilience (and narcissism, and masochism) to be a fantasy manager. We have to navigate the highs and lows. The options here are limited, but let’s try to find some fantasy highs in the Week 6 Thursday Night Football Preview.

Week 6 Thursday Night Preview: Bears’ Offense

This is actually one of the better outcomes of a Bears’ pass attempt.

We figured there would be growing pains. A rookie head coach. A first-time offensive coordinator. All-new primary position coaches. This is a completely different regime attempting to implement their system with players they’ve inherited from the previous unsuccessful regime. Justin Fields is a young quarterback with less than a full season as a starter under his belt. The offensive line is less-than-spectacular. And the offense boasts few proven playmakers. No one outside the confines of Soldier Field expected Da Bears to be Da Greatest Show on Painted Dirt. (To be fair, Chicago recently did install a new field surface. Reviews are still mixed.)

But thus far, the Bears’ offense has been dismal. A snooze-fest. The Bears are averaging 116.6 pass yards per game, last in the league. Minnesota wide receiver Justin Jefferson is averaging 109.4 yards per game by himself. While the Bears are fifth in the league in rushing yards, their abject failure of a passing offense means they’re 31st in the league in total offensive yardage. Chicago is 28th in the league in scoring. The only useable fantasy pieces on the roster thus far have been David Montgomery (when healthy) and Khalil Herbert (when Montgomery’s not healthy.)

Bears’ Offense Big Question

The Bears have been slightly more productive passing in the last two games, albeit in losing efforts. Fields’s rushing abilities actually have him at QB24 after five games. Fields is fifth in the league in quarterback rushing yards and is coming off the most efficient passing game of his career. The Commanders will be without star pash rusher Chase Young and starting cornerback William Jackson III. If the Fields and the Bears are ever going to get the pass game going, tonight’s the night. Washington is surrendering the fourth-most points to opposing wide receivers (35.2 half-ppr points per game) and the 11th-most to opposing quarterbacks (19.4 half-point ppr per game.) I can’t believe I’m saying this, but if you’re absolutely desperate, you could hold your nose and play Fields here. As a QB2 in a Superflex, he’s actually in a good matchup this week.

While Cole Kmet had the preseason hype, he has not been a factor at all this season. At a position where any sign of life is something we cling to like gold, Kmet is droppable. He simply isn’t a big enough factor in a pass game that isn’t a factor itself. Washington is ninth-best against opposing tight ends. You’re not playing Kmet. Darnell Mooney has likewise been next to invisible this season, but has looked slightly better the past two games. Against the Commanders, he may warrant a dee-ee-eep FLEX play, or a cheap DFS dart. Montgomery is ostensibly healthy and should see his usual volume, so he’s startable as a FLEX/RB3 play. That makes Herbert a non-entity. N’Keal Harry is active and may play. This should not excite you.

Week 6 Thursday Night Preview: Commanders’ Offense

It’s remarkable he’s even upright, let alone playing.

New year, new name, new quarterback. Same old Washington mess. Riverboat Ron Rivera‘s squad has had to deal with injuries on the field and unreal, Hollywood-style drama off of it. The team traded for Carson Wentz in the offseason. That’s right- they pursued him. Actively. Actually, willingly bartered assets for the privilege of paying him to be their starting quarterback. For two weeks, it looked like it might work. Then the new wore off. While passing over 40 times a game, Wentz has already thrown six interceptions on the season, after throwing seven all last year. Wentz’s big games have been nice for fantasy managers (he’s QB10 on the season,) but he’s also given us two sub-10 point games.

Rookie running back Brian Robinson looked to have wrapped up the starting job in the preseason. Just before the start of the season, Robinson was shot as the victim during an attempted car-jacking. Miraculously, he recovered from his wounds in time to play in Week 5 and figures to see even more action in the Week 6 Thursday Night game. As if that wasn’t drama enough, now we hear embattled owner Dan Snyder has “dirt” on fellow NFL owners and executives in the event they attempt to force him out.

Commanders’ Offense Big Questions

The first thing I’m interested to see tonight is how many times the Snyder situation comes up on the broadcast. After that, the big questions are: 1.) How much of the workload does Brian Robinson get? and 2.) Will we get “Good Carson” or “Bad Carson”? Robinson was third in snaps behind J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson last week, but led them both in touches. It appears they want him involved sooner than later. While I’m expecting Robinson to eventually lead this backfield outright, perhaps as soon as tonight, it’s not yet time to start him in your fantasy lineup. While it’s a good matchup, we just need more information before we can get a read on his fantasy usefulness. McKissic may be a deep, desperation FLEX play in PPR formats, but leave both Robinson and Gibson on your benches if you can.

Wentz is coming off a QB6 performance in Week 5, and Chicago is not particularly strong against opposing fantasy quarterbacks. If you’re considering playing him, you already know it’s a boom-or-bust chance. I’m more comfortable with him as a QB2/Superflex option, but this is a decent matchup. The Bears are also middle-of-the-road against opposing wide receivers, so I’m still recommending Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin. Samuel as a WR2 and McLaurin as a WR2/FLEX seems about right. Last week’s surprise star Dyami Brown is banged up and doesn’t see enough volume to warrant consideration just yet. Rookie Jahan Dotson and starting tight end Logan Thomas are both out.

Betting Lines:

Favorite: Washington (-3.5)

Over/Under: 35

Notable Props: Curtis Samuel receptions (5.4), Terry McLaurin receiving yards (77.1), Justin Fields pass attempts (22.9)

Challenge Chase!

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