Saturday, May 18, 2024

Fantasy Football

Week 8 Fantasy Market Report

Week 8 is coming. Will you be ready? Did you read the week 7 fantasy market report? Why am I asking so many questions? Will I ever stop? Yes, I will right now. But one thing you can’t stop is the fluctuation of a player’s fantasy value. For instance, if you sold OBJ last week, you are living large. If you acquired him last week, you probably wanna do this. Please remain calm, we don’t need to kick anyone or anything off any bridges. Let’s look forward, to keep your team trending in the correct direction. Reminder, Bull is trending up, Bear is trending down. Special thank you to all you traders out there who keep the leagues fun.

Bull: A.J. Brown

“He stands alone, a Titan ready for war, dominant over all he sees.”
~made up, by me, just now.

This guy is your WR1 for the remainder of the season. He has scored at least 1 TD in three straight games, and is averaging 97.7 yards per game to go along with 6 catches on 8 targets in those three games. Expect double-digit targets in the near future as Tennessee jockeys for playoff seeding and a potential first-round bye. Defenses are going to have to respect the run on this team at all times. Henry helps Brown, who in turn helps Henry, this offense is going to be difficult to deal with moving forward. But Brown and Henry are the creams of this crop.

How about we discuss something even more important. Who are the Titans playing in weeks 15 and 16? The Detroit Lions, and the Green Bay Packers in what will be an enormous game for playoff seeding and home-field advantage. The Lions pass defense is trash. And the Packers matchup should light up the scoreboard. How about you let AJB do that on your team. Oh, and if your playoffs start week 14, he gets the Jags. Anything else you need? Very few WRs in this league are truly matchup proof. This fantasy market report assures you AJB is one of them.

Bear: Cooper Kupp

Why did I choose this picture?

Is Cooper Kupp an excellent WR? Yes. But he is WR33 on a per-game basis this year in PPR. That is not what we expected. Kupp has name recognition. But his 11.3 yards per catch this season is a career-low, and he has only found pay-dirt twice. He is on pace for 85 catches and 953 yards this year. That is what is known as a regression. At his pace, he would end the year with 13% fewer targets than in 2019. And what about the Rams offense suggests his volume will surge? His last two performances were less than inspiring, and outside one week Kupp has not had a great year.

Josh Reynolds, Van Jefferson, and having two viable tight end’s seems to have lowered Kupp’s weekly ceiling. When Robert Woods has twice as many touchdowns as you do, there is an issue. The Rams offense seems more balanced this year, and I don’t expect that to change. So moving Kupp while his name value holds weight makes sense. If you can afford to hold him, he does have juicy matchups in weeks 15 and 16 but starting him on the way there might prove to be problematic for your chances to make it there. He is serviceable but could be traded for an upgrade who is more than that.

Bull: Allen Lazard

The end zone, where Lazard gets double points on his frequent flyer miles.

Whether Lazard returns this week is irrelevant. This guy was tearing it up before his injury. He was averaging 19.5 yards per target with 2 TDs and 254 yards in 3 games played. Did I mention is 84.7 yards per game? Green Bay will keep their foot on the pedal this year jockeying for playoff positioning, and Lazard is the clear WR2 in this high-powered offense. Green Bay ranks second on the year in points per game, and eighth in yards per game. If you haven’t been watching football in 2020 but happened upon this article by happenstance, the Packers offense is one you want exposure to.

Lazard is the answer to the question we all had coming into the year. Who will be the guy opposite Adams. MVS has been alright, but Lazard is the consolation prize, and in this offense, that’s something real nice. Like a riding lawnmower. Or like a thousand dollar gift card to Home Depot, which you could use to get a riding lawnmower. I am making moves on Lazard in every league I can, because his price point is not quite where it should be, and when he hits the field it is going to go up up up.

Bear: Tyreek Hill

It’s midway through the third quarter, and KC has the ball. Tyreek is looking for ketchup for Pat, who had burgers made for them both. Pat is a thoughtful teammate.

This is once again a case of a great player who has not lived up to expectations. Tyreek has yet to record a 100-yard receiving game this year. His yards per catch numbers are the worst since his rookie year in 2016. Same for his yards per game. The TDs are there, but not much else. This guy was supposed to be flirting with WR1 status. Instead, he is WR13 on a per-game basis. And through no fault of his own, or even of his offense, he has not delivered. This fantasy market report is surely disappointed with the WR17 on a per-game basis.

Kansas City has a legit defense. They can get and stay ahead, allowing the Chiefs to run the ball. Lev Bell aides them in this path, and the Chiefs are going to get up big, early, on a lot of folks, meaning more time for Tyreek on the bench in the fourth quarter. It also means running the ball more. This is affecting Mahomes too. The defense in Kansas City is capping the ceilings of Chiefs offensive players. Move Tyreek for a king’s ransom. Of course the big game will come. But his floor is no longer as safe as it was thought to be. I am moving shares where possible, for something more predictable. Like AJB, perhaps? I would move Tyreek for AJB right now.

Bull: Chase Edmonds

Chase Edmonds is indeed faster than this official pictured.

Chase Edmonds is the RB23 on the year with Kenyan Drake‘s inefficient behind ahead of him. He is averaging an obscene 6.1 yards per carry in 2020, to go along with an 81.3% catch rate. He has three TDs on the year with only 55 touches. Edmonds has churned out 398 yards in those touches. He has been the more efficient back for Arizona, and with Drake being down, he is going to get the volume needed to pay off in a big way. Let me explain it like this… when Drake is once again healthy, Edmonds may have forced Arizona only to utilize Drake as an RB2. When this guy has had the volume, he has produced.

Edmonds cost is already rising, but where I see it now, I think he is still worth the investment. This offense is wide-open, and Edmonds should have the space to operate comfortably, producing RB1 level numbers moving forward. He had 26 catches as the RB2. You might be looking at a league winner with this guy. Just remember which fantasy market report told you that!

Bear: Jonnu Smith

Not pictured: AJB, on the receiving end of what was surely another AJB touchdown.

Ok, let me be frank. Jonnu Smith is still a great option at TE. But if you are expecting first-half numbers from Jonny moving forward, think again. The majority of his breakout season was spent without AJB, who is now going superhero on opposing defenses. Jonnu is relegated to a tertiary option at best. Corey Davis might have something to say about that. But he averaged nearly 7 targets per game in his first three games to just over four in his last three. AJB is gonna eat, folks, of that much I am certain. Jonnu takes the hit to his ceiling because of it and lowers his floor in the process. I still view him as a Top 10 TE, but only barely.

If you can get elite TE value for him, do it now. He also has a big game or two in him, but the volume is no longer there to sustain his first-half pace. The regression is inevitable in an offense with two mega-stars healthy together. Don’t try to dump him, but be aware of his value. I think we have seen the best of Jonnu already, and it is likely downhill from here. This fantasy market report has already moved some of their Jonny shares this week.

Week 8, not much longer to wait! I hope your team performs great, and I am up for debate! Did you love or hate this fantasy market report? If so, forward all complaints to my secretary. He can be located on Twitter @realryanhicks, and he works for @BellyUpFantasy. He is me, if you are confused. I am my own secretary. Beat that Roger Goodell. Oh, you got a private jet for life? You still suck at your job.